2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2521 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:42 am

skyline385 wrote:Good thread by Danny here, been wondering myself if the warm waters in the high-latitude are the cause of the relatively slow start. Andy and some others have brought it up a few times as well.
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1555918119780089858


Mark Sudduth mentioned in one of his recent updates http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8&t=1743s @ the 13:29 point in the video, that these high latitude anomalous warm SST's can help foster high pressure over the region during peak season pushing storms that do form further west than usual.

Also, there has been no slow start. I don't get that angle right now. It's just not fact. In a few weeks it could be. Again, we shall see. For BUST or for VERIFY, Bell Ringing is just over two weeks away.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2522 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:11 am

I keep seeing but the sub tropics are cool... Yes there is a cool pool but a good chunk of the subtropical is much warmer than normal
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2523 Postby MHC Tracking » Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:37 am

Deshaunrob17 wrote:I keep seeing but the sub tropics are cool... Yes there is a cool pool but a good chunk of the subtropical is much warmer than normal

Funny how the mood went from "warm subtropics will bust the season !!!" to "cool subtropics will bust the season !!!" in a few weeks :lol:
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2524 Postby floridasun » Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:46 pm

hi all look likie peck part season will start on time all saying that season is done will be worke up next few weeks what i call show time
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2525 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:07 pm

floridasun wrote:hi all look likie peck part season will start on time all saying that season is done will be worke up next few weeks what i call show time


First real Cape Verde signal coming from the models.
High latitude wave rolling off Africa likely to recurve so only Bermuda threat.
Sahara dust layer is still pretty active at Cape Verde latitude so may not form till late in forecast.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2526 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:21 pm

Tropical Tidbits ssta's analogs for 2022. Link below to click on those years.

Image

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/hsanalog/
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2527 Postby zzh » Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:50 pm

Warm SST in high latitude creates low pressure there.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2528 Postby zzh » Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:50 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2529 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical Tidbits ssta's analogs for 2022. Link below to click on those years.

https://i.imgur.com/FK0AWvZ.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/hsanalog/


It's interesting that July of 2000 (full season ACE 119), another 3rd year La Nina, is the 4th closest analog based on world SSTAs. Furthermore, when just looking at the Atlantic, 2000 looks closer to me than any of the other years with the possible exception of 1971 (ACE 96) (see below). Their #1 world SSTA analog, 2013 (ACE 36), looks nothing like 2022 in the Atlantic.

2022 last 30 days SSTA:
Image

2000 July SSTA: also has warm Gulf, cool E Caribb and E Atl, warm N Atl
Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2530 Postby NotSparta » Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical Tidbits ssta's analogs for 2022. Link below to click on those years.

https://i.imgur.com/FK0AWvZ.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/hsanalog/


Uh oh is that 2013 I see
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2531 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:30 pm

NotSparta wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Tropical Tidbits ssta's analogs for 2022. Link below to click on those years.

https://i.imgur.com/FK0AWvZ.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/hsanalog/


Uh oh is that 2013 I see


Yep, it is the #1 analog based on world SSTAs. However, besides not being a good ENSO analog unlike 2000, the July, 2013 Atlantic SSTAs are much different from 2022:

July 2013:
Image

2022 last 30 days:
Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2532 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:38 pm

No Caribbean activity projects the Euro? Of course I am the first one that does not want another hit by a major cane to any of the islands,but can't believe nothing will be in the Caribbean the rest of the season.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1556036814515089408


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2533 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:No Caribbean activity projects the Euro? Of course I am the first one that does not want another hit by a major cane to any of the islands,but can't believe nothing will be in the Caribbean the rest of the season.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1556036814515089408


I feel like a parrot, especially because I'm repeating a professional meteorologist here, but Wxman57 basically said this as well. Appears to be a Florida/East Coast heavy season setting up. Seems like we get these every few years.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2534 Postby skyline385 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:03 pm

SoupBone wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No Caribbean activity projects the Euro? Of course I am the first one that does not want another hit by a major cane to any of the islands,but can't believe nothing will be in the Caribbean the rest of the season.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1556036814515089408


I feel like a parrot, especially because I'm repeating a professional meteorologist here, but Wxman57 basically said this as well. Appears to be a Florida/East Coast heavy season setting up. Seems like we get these every few years.


Where did he say it would be an east coast heavy season, I don't recall seeing it.

Edit: I checked the expert forecasts thread and found one of this posts

One big reason to certainly not raise numbers is to consider the current state of the basin. Climatologically, we'd expect a sharp ramp-up in activity starting very soon. There's no sign of that. With only 3 named storms so far, and maybe no fourth named storm for another two weeks, it will be hard to reach the very high numbers. I would expected maybe 4-5 named storms by the beginning of August, and a strong signal for activity heating up very soon. We're not seeing that. Clearly, something is "off" out there across the tropics. Conditions are not as favorable as we thought they would be. I'm confident that conditions will become much more favorable by the second half of August, but that may be too late to generate 20 named storms or more. I'm seeing similarities to past seasons that featured significant impacts across the NE Gulf, Florida, and the East U.S. Coast. Less of a threat to Texas this year.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2535 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:13 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2536 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:No Caribbean activity projects the Euro? Of course I am the first one that does not want another hit by a major cane to any of the islands,but can't believe nothing will be in the Caribbean the rest of the season.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1556036814515089408


I would take these long range outlooks with a grain salt, so many varibles where storms form
and up going. Look at Hurricane Grace from last year ,the early models had it heading for Florida
and it ending up going into the carribean and into the Yucatan. And that is in the short range.

Hard for me to put a lot stock in these long range projections. JMO
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2537 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:No Caribbean activity projects the Euro? Of course I am the first one that does not want another hit by a major cane to any of the islands,but can't believe nothing will be in the Caribbean the rest of the season.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1556036814515089408


Nor the E 2/3 of the Gulf nor just E of the L Antilles nor just north of the Caribbean if the Euro's white areas were interpreted as no TS+. Since it doesn't make sense for a climatic model to predict zero activity in such prime locations and also because there'd be almost all blue (reduced vs climo) surrounding the white and certainly no red (above average) immediately surrounding the white, I'm confident that the white area does not mean no activity. It must just mean no forecast for whatever reason. I'm assuming it is best to interpret white as near normal for the best guess.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2538 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:No Caribbean activity projects the Euro? Of course I am the first one that does not want another hit by a major cane to any of the islands,but can't believe nothing will be in the Caribbean the rest of the season.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1556036814515089408

That’s the wrong way to look at it … what’s not shaded is activity as normal. The Caribbean usually sees some level activity in ASO but not see something as crazy as 2020 or 2017…Blue is below normal and red is enhanced …
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2539 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:25 pm

Deshaunrob17 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No Caribbean activity projects the Euro? Of course I am the first one that does not want another hit by a major cane to any of the islands,but can't believe nothing will be in the Caribbean the rest of the season.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1556036814515089408

That’s the wrong way to look at it … what’s not shaded is activity as normal. The Caribbean usually sees some level activity in ASO but not see something as crazy as 2020 or 2017…Blue is below normal and red is enhanced …


Agreed as that's what I said. But what doesn't make much sense is that there's also the orange area that they say means near expected value. Why do they need to have both the white area AND the orange are? Why not just have one color for both?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2540 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:44 pm

Back burner for now, but the way the season is going, it seems to me that unless something was to form just off the SE Coast, the next possible US threat would be Texas. Something will have to be on the table when MJO is a few days into Phase 2. Early morning bet would be somewhere around the 17th or 18th. Of course Phase 2 can be an active phase for the Mexican Pacific coast too. If regional tropical energy is in the EPAC, you might see something skirting the coast there or possibly landfalling. But if the energy is in the Gulf, that would be an eastward pattern progression from the recent EPAC systems. And if so, that would indicate a potential system would be coming in toward west, wnw, or nw. 10% at best from this far out. Watch models (global and mjo) next week and let’s see which way they go
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