2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[toad strangler]

With 97L fading, that’s two model-hyped MDR storms that never verified. Maybe third time’s the charm and we’ll get one next week?

We’re running behind every season of the post-2015 active phase so far. Even 2018 and 2019 had at least one hurricane by now, although 2018 had a nearly dead August until Florence formed at the very end.

What is the post-2015 active phase? Something you made up? Or is it something that NOAA has been talking about? I can't find anything on a post 2015 active phase. But if there is content do please link me to it!

To me, a period like this is a blip. An eyeblink. It means nothing in regards to climatology. It seems like this is like a horse race the way you describe it. The tropics don't work like that. Even if they did for a few years in a row.

[skyline385]

With 97L fading, that’s two model-hyped MDR storms that never verified. Maybe third time’s the charm and we’ll get one next week?

We’re running behind every season of the post-2015 active phase so far. Even 2018 and 2019 had at least one hurricane by now, although 2018 had a nearly dead August until Florence formed at the very end.

What is the post-2015 active phase? Something you made up? Or is it something that NOAA has been talking about? I can't find anything on a post 2015 active phase. But if there is content do please link me to it!

To me, a period like this is a blip. An eyeblink. It means nothing in regards to climatology. It seems like this is like a horse race the way you describe it. The tropics don't work like that. Even if they did for a few years in a row.

He is simply talking about the fact that 2015 was the last below-average season. 2021 was the sixth consecutive season with above-average or hyperactivity. And per all forecasts so far, 2022 will join in at the seventh consecutive above average season. It is rare climo wise to have so many consecutive above average seasons and hyperactive seasons.


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[Blown Away]

EPS not enthusiastic through @8.27


GEFS still pretty quiet through @8.27

My amateur take, I think this third year strong La Nina is somewhat unprecedented and model inputs are struggling because there is no real analog data or they are correct and there is some influence that is not being considered.

[toad strangler]

With 97L fading, that’s two model-hyped MDR storms that never verified. Maybe third time’s the charm and we’ll get one next week?

We’re running behind every season of the post-2015 active phase so far. Even 2018 and 2019 had at least one hurricane by now, although 2018 had a nearly dead August until Florence formed at the very end.

What is the post-2015 active phase? Something you made up? Or is it something that NOAA has been talking about? I can't find anything on a post 2015 active phase. But if there is content do please link me to it!

To me, a period like this is a blip. An eyeblink. It means nothing in regards to climatology. It seems like this is like a horse race the way you describe it. The tropics don't work like that. Even if they did for a few years in a row.

He is simply talking about the fact that 2015 was the last below-average season. 2021 was the sixth consecutive season with above-average or hyperactivity. And per all forecasts so far, 2022 will join in at the seventh consecutive above average season. It is rare climo wise to have so many consecutive above average seasons and hyperactive seasons.


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I know there is an actual active phase that we are still in the middle of that started in the 1990's. This being the latest climatological active phase that the basin goes through and are documented. There is thread around these parts discussing when this active phase may end. But it certainly didn't start in 2015. Thus, the reason for my confusion.

[skyline385]

EPS not enthusiastic through @8.27


GEFS still pretty quiet through @8.27

My amateur take, I think this third year strong La Nina is somewhat unprecedented and model inputs are struggling because there is no real analog data or they are correct and there is some influence that is not being considered.

There are a few cases of third year Nina, this isn’t the first one. Also, dynamical models don’t have anything to do with analog years. They are initialised using current conditions, the -ve timesteps you see for example in a GFS run are the conditions it was initialised on. If models are not catching anything it’s simply because current conditions are not conducive enough. Of course as we have seen in the past years, these conditions can change suddenly and the models react to that by lighting up.


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[aspen]

What is the post-2015 active phase? Something you made up? Or is it something that NOAA has been talking about? I can't find anything on a post 2015 active phase. But if there is content do please link me to it!

To me, a period like this is a blip. An eyeblink. It means nothing in regards to climatology. It seems like this is like a horse race the way you describe it. The tropics don't work like that. Even if they did for a few years in a row.

He is simply talking about the fact that 2015 was the last below-average season. 2021 was the sixth consecutive season with above-average or hyperactivity. And per all forecasts so far, 2022 will join in at the seventh consecutive above average season. It is rare climo wise to have so many consecutive above average seasons and hyperactive seasons.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I know there is an actual active phase that we are still in the middle of that started in the 1990's. This being the latest climatological active phase that the basin goes through and are documented. There is thread around these parts discussing when this active phase may end. But it certainly didn't start in 2015. Thus, the reason for my confusion.

Sorry, “post-2015 active streak” is more what I meant. We’re also running behind other active or analog seasons from the +AMO phase in terms of named storms (2011, 2012) or hurricanes. 2000 only had Alberto by this point but it was already a hurricane, while 2010 had a borderline major in June despite having the same NS count as 2022 by August 11th. 2010 didn’t have its Danielle until August 21st, and that’ll probably be similar to when 2022 Danielle finally forms.

[NDG]

The story so far this month despite a warm MDR.
SSTs is not everything. We will see if conditions do indeed change at the end of the month as some long range models and pros indicate.


https://i.imgur.com/Kemoz4o.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/g3IUKWg.jpg

Looks like shear associated with the TUTT is weakening compared to your previous shear graphic a couple of days ago.

Yes, it is letting up "some" compared during the month of July. I did a comparison, this past July anomalously westerly UL winds across the Caribbean was among the highest compared to past La Nina years, that was after a June which had fairly good UL winds compared to those same years. That's why a lot of pros back then might have thought it was going to be fairly active by now, IMO. I remember seeing a forecast by the Euro back in late June of how favorable the UL winds were going to be across the MDR during all of August, it sure is taking its time to come to fruition.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/lTNPiZT.jpg
EPS not enthusiastic through @8.27

https://i.imgur.com/RzMdQPb.jpg
GEFS still pretty quiet through @8.27

My amateur take, I think this third year strong La Nina is somewhat unprecedented and model inputs are struggling because there is no real analog data or they are correct and there is some influence that is not being considered.

There are a few cases of third year Nina, this isn’t the first one. Also, dynamical models don’t have anything to do with analog years. They are initialised using current conditions, the -ve timesteps you see for example in a GFS run are the conditions it was initialised on. If models are not catching anything it’s simply because current conditions are not conducive enough. Of course as we have seen in the past years, these conditions can change suddenly and the models react to that by lighting up.


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This! Things can change quickly as we get deeper onto August.

[tolakram]

Here's this time period in the 2019 indicators thread. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... &start=860

The thread is locked now.

I'll quote what I said about season cancel then, and honestly I think things have improved a lot since 2019 as far as season cancel trolls.

Right, but what science is behind this? Saying the same thing over and over is not a conversation, and this goes for more than just you. Science is interesting, observations are interesting, cancelling the season is not interesting.

Lots of data this year, though some of it might not apply.

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/lTNPiZT.jpg
EPS not enthusiastic through @8.27

https://i.imgur.com/RzMdQPb.jpg
GEFS still pretty quiet through @8.27

My amateur take, I think this third year strong La Nina is somewhat unprecedented and model inputs are struggling because there is no real analog data or they are correct and there is some influence that is not being considered.

There are a few cases of third year Nina, this isn’t the first one. Also, dynamical models don’t have anything to do with analog years. They are initialised using current conditions, the -ve timesteps you see for example in a GFS run are the conditions it was initialised on. If models are not catching anything it’s simply because current conditions are not conducive enough. Of course as we have seen in the past years, these conditions can change suddenly and the models react to that by lighting up.


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A lot of people have been throwing 2000 as an analog year since that was the most recent 3rd consecutive La Nina year, it also had a fairly quiet June and July, but by this time that year conditions were a lot more moist across the MDR and we were tracking a hurricane which became the first MH of the season.
This will probably be the latest La Nina year to have a hurricane develop during the past 30 years.

[Blown Away]

Long range, but something to keep an eye on.

GFS for a few runs showing a TW/low starting to develop E of @Barbados, moves near PR, then into Bahamas.

06z ensemble shows W turn in Bahamas towards SFL as a Cat 3/4...

Bears watching.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/MezDrMR.gif
https://i.imgur.com/KXbflyC.jpg

Long range, but something to keep an eye on.

GFS for a few runs showing a TW/low starting to develop E of @Barbados, moves near PR, then into Bahamas.

06z ensemble shows W turn in Bahamas towards SFL as a Cat 3/4...

Bears watching.

Today’s CFS did show a possible long-tracking major passing through this region within the same time frame, so maybe they’re on to something. The wave that the CFS turns into that storm emerges off the coast of Africa on August 22nd and reaches the NE Caribbean on August 27th.

[Emmett_Brown]

The early August calm is upon us. It always seems so quiet right before the main activity starts. My life long fascination with hurricanes started with hurricane Belle in 1976 (I was 8 yrs old living in CT before moving to FL). The 70s, 80s and early 90s were a time of fewer storms, and no Internet. As a storm tracker in those days, you had just your NOAA weather radio (mine was the cube from Radio Shack) and a paper tracking chart. The 80's brought The Weather Channel and the Tropical Update with John Hope at 50 minutes after the hour. Although it was a less active period, there were still historic storms. I remember tracking David, Frederick, Allan, Elena, Gloria, Gilbert, Hugo, Andrew and many others. Back then, the early season quiet was just that... quiet. There were no seasonal forecasts until Dr Gray started in 1984, and those early forecasts were more of a curiosity than the ritual we take for granted today. As a kid in New England, I noticed that the hurricane season seemed to start in earnest after the first cool front passed in August. We have a front/trough in the east this week, so we are getting close.

[SFLcane]

But but nothing is going to form guys!

Then came Dorian. Things can and will change quickly during this time of the year. Patience grasshoppers!

[Teban54]

Here's this time period in the 2019 indicators thread. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... &start=860

The thread is locked now.

I'll quote what I said about season cancel then, and honestly I think things have improved a lot since 2019 as far as season cancel trolls.

Right, but what science is behind this? Saying the same thing over and over is not a conversation, and this goes for more than just you. Science is interesting, observations are interesting, cancelling the season is not interesting.

Lots of data this year, though some of it might not apply.

It's funny to see people complaining about the first three cyclones in 2019, when in 2022 someone literally just commented we're running behind every season post 2015, including 2019.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Loving this season so far, nice and calm. It is just the rest our friends in the heart of Hurricane Alley need. May things continue this way.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Only 9 more days until the magic switch. Also, would a fourth Niña be unprecedented?

[tolakram]

Here's this time period in the 2019 indicators thread. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... &start=860

The thread is locked now.

I'll quote what I said about season cancel then, and honestly I think things have improved a lot since 2019 as far as season cancel trolls.

Right, but what science is behind this? Saying the same thing over and over is not a conversation, and this goes for more than just you. Science is interesting, observations are interesting, cancelling the season is not interesting.

Lots of data this year, though some of it might not apply.

I posted this in the wrong thread, moved it here.

[psyclone]

We are a 1/4 up climo mountain...which is halfway to the 8-20 bell ring. We are entitled to activity and soon. If not those questioning the season quickly gain cred. If this season were to end up a bust it would seriously damage the seasonal forecasting biz.. which seems to be universally bullish. I'd lean into climo and expect stuff to happen...although I figured we'd already have something of interest at this point...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1557779196511825920




Derek asks a good question.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1557780011624570880