2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

Both the EPS and GEFS show shear dropping to average if not well below average across the western Atlantic Basin over the next couple of weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/aZqESoT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/KRXdm4y.gif

I wouldn't trust ensemble shear plots that much into the future, they all always converge towards low shear once you get that far ahead just because of how ensembles work.

Here's an example between model runs 6 days apart

https://i.imgur.com/HUhCN1B.png

Good point, lets leave it then at the 6-10 day range, which did fairly well.

https://i.imgur.com/ZIx5MKl.png

Even at that range, probably better to just look at the operational runs. Both GFS and EURO show significant shear in the Gulf as expected.

[zzh]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1531480499536920577



 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1531487627202920448

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1531480499536920577
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1531487627202920448

Wow, the similarity is quite uncanny there

One thing I've noticed is that hyperactive years typically have striking rising motion over Africa with sinking over the Americas, and it looks like 2022 is following that idea at least thus far.

[tolakram]

I’m starting to think this season is going to have quite a late start, at least compared to 2015-21. There’s no guarantee that the tropical mess left behind by Agatha will be able to consolidate into a name-worthy system, and the next Kelvin Wave won’t arrive until later in the month. Maybe 2022 will follow 2004 and 2010, where Alex forms several weeks after the start of the season but ends up as a noteworthy hurricane.

Maybe. I'm wondering if all this talk about Kelvin waves is really only applicable in more marginal years. If the background conditions are better, and that's a big if, then any spin can form a storm. It will be interesting to see how the season unfolds.

[AlphaToOmega]

Is it just me, or has the North Atlantic been usually quiet? Zero hurricanes formed in the North Atlantic during 2021 OND, and it is looking likely that 2022 is going to have no pre-season storm.

From 2007 to 2020, every season but one (2013) had at least one hurricane form during OND. That was 92.9% of the seasons from 2007 to 2020; hurricane development during OND was the norm. 2021 was unable to produce one hurricane during OND, despite the fact that 2007, the closest recent analog of 2021, produced a hurricane during OND (Noel (2007)) and despite the fact that seasons significantly less favorable than 2021 did so (2015 produced Kate, and 2018 produced Michael and Oscar). Despite the strong Atlantic Niño, recent trends should have dictated that 2021 produce at least one hurricane during OND, but no such system formed.

From 2012 to 2021, every season but two (2013 and 2014) had pre-season activity, which was 80% of those seasons; pre-season development was the norm. However, despite the conditions that would theoretically favor pre-season development (e.g. subtropical warm pool), no pre-season storm has formed, and no pre-season storm is likely to form. This is despite the fact that 2017, which had a much weaker subtropical warm pool, had pre-season development. Recent trends would dictate that this season would have pre-season development, but none has occurred.

What exactly is happening with the North Atlantic? What exactly is causing these norms to be broken?

[SteveM]

Pre-season development is always the exception, not the rule. The lack of such means nothing, really.

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it just me, or has the North Atlantic been usually quiet? Zero hurricanes formed in the North Atlantic during 2021 OND, and it is looking likely that 2022 is going to have no pre-season storm.

From 2007 to 2020, every season but one (2013) had at least one hurricane form during OND. That was 92.9% of the seasons from 2007 to 2020; hurricane development during OND was the norm. 2021 was unable to produce one hurricane during OND, despite the fact that 2007, the closest recent analog of 2021, produced a hurricane during OND (Noel (2007)) and despite the fact that seasons significantly less favorable than 2021 did so (2015 produced Kate, and 2018 produced Michael and Oscar). Despite the strong Atlantic Niño, recent trends should have dictated that 2021 produce at least one hurricane during OND, but no such system formed.

From 2012 to 2021, every season but two (2013 and 2014) had pre-season activity, which was 80% of those seasons; pre-season development was the norm. However, despite the conditions that would theoretically favor pre-season development (e.g. subtropical warm pool), no pre-season storm has formed, and no pre-season storm is likely to form. This is despite the fact that 2017, which had a much weaker subtropical warm pool, had pre-season development. Recent trends would dictate that this season would have pre-season development, but none has occurred.

What exactly is happening with the North Atlantic? What exactly is causing these norms to be broken?

So are you implying that you think pre-season storms have meaning, at least when it comes down to the nature of the overall season? Because quite frankly, I don't, I feel pre-season storms are almost random and that what we got the last 7 years was basically really good luck.

[AlphaToOmega]

Is it just me, or has the North Atlantic been usually quiet? Zero hurricanes formed in the North Atlantic during 2021 OND, and it is looking likely that 2022 is going to have no pre-season storm.

From 2007 to 2020, every season but one (2013) had at least one hurricane form during OND. That was 92.9% of the seasons from 2007 to 2020; hurricane development during OND was the norm. 2021 was unable to produce one hurricane during OND, despite the fact that 2007, the closest recent analog of 2021, produced a hurricane during OND (Noel (2007)) and despite the fact that seasons significantly less favorable than 2021 did so (2015 produced Kate, and 2018 produced Michael and Oscar). Despite the strong Atlantic Niño, recent trends should have dictated that 2021 produce at least one hurricane during OND, but no such system formed.

From 2012 to 2021, every season but two (2013 and 2014) had pre-season activity, which was 80% of those seasons; pre-season development was the norm. However, despite the conditions that would theoretically favor pre-season development (e.g. subtropical warm pool), no pre-season storm has formed, and no pre-season storm is likely to form. This is despite the fact that 2017, which had a much weaker subtropical warm pool, had pre-season development. Recent trends would dictate that this season would have pre-season development, but none has occurred.

What exactly is happening with the North Atlantic? What exactly is causing these norms to be broken?

So are you implying that you think pre-season storms have meaning, at least when it comes down to the nature of the overall season? Because quite frankly, I don't, I feel pre-season storms are almost random and that what we got the last 7 years was basically really good luck.

I am not saying that the presence or absence of a pre-season storm has any impact on the overall activity of a season. I am just curious as to why specifically 2022 is breaking the steak (i.e. what specific conditions caused 2022 to break this streak).

[toad strangler]

Is it just me, or has the North Atlantic been usually quiet? Zero hurricanes formed in the North Atlantic during 2021 OND, and it is looking likely that 2022 is going to have no pre-season storm.

From 2007 to 2020, every season but one (2013) had at least one hurricane form during OND. That was 92.9% of the seasons from 2007 to 2020; hurricane development during OND was the norm. 2021 was unable to produce one hurricane during OND, despite the fact that 2007, the closest recent analog of 2021, produced a hurricane during OND (Noel (2007)) and despite the fact that seasons significantly less favorable than 2021 did so (2015 produced Kate, and 2018 produced Michael and Oscar). Despite the strong Atlantic Niño, recent trends should have dictated that 2021 produce at least one hurricane during OND, but no such system formed.

From 2012 to 2021, every season but two (2013 and 2014) had pre-season activity, which was 80% of those seasons; pre-season development was the norm. However, despite the conditions that would theoretically favor pre-season development (e.g. subtropical warm pool), no pre-season storm has formed, and no pre-season storm is likely to form. This is despite the fact that 2017, which had a much weaker subtropical warm pool, had pre-season development. Recent trends would dictate that this season would have pre-season development, but none has occurred.

What exactly is happening with the North Atlantic? What exactly is causing these norms to be broken?

So are you implying that you think pre-season storms have meaning, at least when it comes down to the nature of the overall season? Because quite frankly, I don't, I feel pre-season storms are almost random and that what we got the last 7 years was basically really good luck.

I am not saying that the presence or absence of a pre-season storm has any impact on the overall activity of a season. I am just curious as to why specifically 2022 is breaking the steak (i.e. what specific conditions caused 2022 to break this streak).

There is way WAY too much randomness between every season. Regardless of multiple major indicators being similar to recent years or not. Any attempt to highlight a reason would be close to pure guesswork. I look at tropical seasons being like snowflakes. Snowflakes happen and fall through the atmosphere over and over again in similar conditions to years past. But every snowflake looks different!

[CyclonicFury]

Is it just me, or has the North Atlantic been usually quiet? Zero hurricanes formed in the North Atlantic during 2021 OND, and it is looking likely that 2022 is going to have no pre-season storm.

From 2007 to 2020, every season but one (2013) had at least one hurricane form during OND. That was 92.9% of the seasons from 2007 to 2020; hurricane development during OND was the norm. 2021 was unable to produce one hurricane during OND, despite the fact that 2007, the closest recent analog of 2021, produced a hurricane during OND (Noel (2007)) and despite the fact that seasons significantly less favorable than 2021 did so (2015 produced Kate, and 2018 produced Michael and Oscar). Despite the strong Atlantic Niño, recent trends should have dictated that 2021 produce at least one hurricane during OND, but no such system formed.

From 2012 to 2021, every season but two (2013 and 2014) had pre-season activity, which was 80% of those seasons; pre-season development was the norm. However, despite the conditions that would theoretically favor pre-season development (e.g. subtropical warm pool), no pre-season storm has formed, and no pre-season storm is likely to form. This is despite the fact that 2017, which had a much weaker subtropical warm pool, had pre-season development. Recent trends would dictate that this season would have pre-season development, but none has occurred.

What exactly is happening with the North Atlantic? What exactly is causing these norms to be broken?

So are you implying that you think pre-season storms have meaning, at least when it comes down to the nature of the overall season? Because quite frankly, I don't, I feel pre-season storms are almost random and that what we got the last 7 years was basically really good luck.

I am not saying that the presence or absence of a pre-season storm has any impact on the overall activity of a season. I am just curious as to why specifically 2022 is breaking the steak (i.e. what specific conditions caused 2022 to break this streak).

As many others have noted, pre-season activity is usually fairly random. Most pre-season storms form in the subtropics and have non-tropical origins. We did have a system in the Gulf of Mexico that came close to becoming a tropical cyclone earlier this month. 2022 isn't really off to a slow start, we could have a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by Friday which is June 3rd. The 1991-2020 "average" date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20th.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1531742168313761792

[zzh]

Is it just me, or has the North Atlantic been usually quiet? Zero hurricanes formed in the North Atlantic during 2021 OND, and it is looking likely that 2022 is going to have no pre-season storm.

From 2007 to 2020, every season but one (2013) had at least one hurricane form during OND. That was 92.9% of the seasons from 2007 to 2020; hurricane development during OND was the norm. 2021 was unable to produce one hurricane during OND, despite the fact that 2007, the closest recent analog of 2021, produced a hurricane during OND (Noel (2007)) and despite the fact that seasons significantly less favorable than 2021 did so (2015 produced Kate, and 2018 produced Michael and Oscar). Despite the strong Atlantic Niño, recent trends should have dictated that 2021 produce at least one hurricane during OND, but no such system formed.

From 2012 to 2021, every season but two (2013 and 2014) had pre-season activity, which was 80% of those seasons; pre-season development was the norm. However, despite the conditions that would theoretically favor pre-season development (e.g. subtropical warm pool), no pre-season storm has formed, and no pre-season storm is likely to form. This is despite the fact that 2017, which had a much weaker subtropical warm pool, had pre-season development. Recent trends would dictate that this season would have pre-season development, but none has occurred.

What exactly is happening with the North Atlantic? What exactly is causing these norms to be broken?

So are you implying that you think pre-season storms have meaning, at least when it comes down to the nature of the overall season? Because quite frankly, I don't, I feel pre-season storms are almost random and that what we got the last 7 years was basically really good luck.

I am not saying that the presence or absence of a pre-season storm has any impact on the overall activity of a season. I am just curious as to why specifically 2022 is breaking the steak (i.e. what specific conditions caused 2022 to break this streak).

Maybe it 's due to this upper-level trough centered in the Bahamas.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1531742168313761792

Kind of an odd factoid to highlight lol. Would've been more appropriate to mention the preseason streak ending probably.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of 0:00 UTC June 1 or 8:00 PM AST May 31). Buckle up!

[AnnularCane]

Looks like the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of 0:00 UTC June 1 or 8:00 PM AST May 31). Buckle up!

Eh. I'm going by my own time zone.

[tolakram]

Last few hours to get in your predictions!

2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Closes at midnight EDT): https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122570

[zzh]

Cansips June forecast. I will believe it when I see it.

[AlphaToOmega]

I’m starting to think this season is going to have quite a late start, at least compared to 2015-21. There’s no guarantee that the tropical mess left behind by Agatha will be able to consolidate into a name-worthy system, and the next Kelvin Wave won’t arrive until later in the month. Maybe 2022 will follow 2004 and 2010, where Alex forms several weeks after the start of the season but ends up as a noteworthy hurricane.

Maybe. I'm wondering if all this talk about Kelvin waves is really only applicable in more marginal years. If the background conditions are better, and that's a big if, then any spin can form a storm. It will be interesting to see how the season unfolds.

MJO/Kelvin wave dependence seems to be a mixed bag. It hurts active seasons with favorable base states (July and October 2021 were inactive largely because of the suppressive MJO), but it can help seasons with unfavorable base states. In a weak MJO season, a basin would be either favorable or unfavorable for development throughout the entire season (similar to 2020); in a strong MJO season, the basin would be favorable when and only when the MJO is centered at the basin (similar to 2021).

[Steve]

I’m starting to think this season is going to have quite a late start, at least compared to 2015-21. There’s no guarantee that the tropical mess left behind by Agatha will be able to consolidate into a name-worthy system, and the next Kelvin Wave won’t arrive until later in the month. Maybe 2022 will follow 2004 and 2010, where Alex forms several weeks after the start of the season but ends up as a noteworthy hurricane.

Maybe. I'm wondering if all this talk about Kelvin waves is really only applicable in more marginal years. If the background conditions are better, and that's a big if, then any spin can form a storm. It will be interesting to see how the season unfolds.

MJO/Kelvin wave dependence seems to be a mixed bag. It hurts active seasons with favorable base states (July and October 2021 were inactive largely because of the suppressive MJO), but it can help seasons with unfavorable base states. In a weak MJO season, a basin would be either favorable or unfavorable for development throughout the entire season (similar to 2020); in a strong MJO season, the basin would be favorable when and only when the MJO is centered at the basin (similar to 2021).

We recently rotated into Phase 8 and voila, Tropical Storm Alex should be classified today. It's too early to know how many systems will be MJO-indicated this season, but we'd be starting it off 1 out of 1. MJO is definitely something I've gotten more comfortable with the last few years.

[aspen]

Maybe. I'm wondering if all this talk about Kelvin waves is really only applicable in more marginal years. If the background conditions are better, and that's a big if, then any spin can form a storm. It will be interesting to see how the season unfolds.

MJO/Kelvin wave dependence seems to be a mixed bag. It hurts active seasons with favorable base states (July and October 2021 were inactive largely because of the suppressive MJO), but it can help seasons with unfavorable base states. In a weak MJO season, a basin would be either favorable or unfavorable for development throughout the entire season (similar to 2020); in a strong MJO season, the basin would be favorable when and only when the MJO is centered at the basin (similar to 2021).

We recently rotated into Phase 8 and voila, Tropical Storm Alex should be classified today. It's too early to know how many systems will be MJO-indicated this season, but we'd be starting it off 1 out of 1. MJO is definitely something I've gotten more comfortable with the last few years.

I highly doubt we get TS Alex today. Maybe tomorrow at the earliest. It’s really not looking hot today.

If PTC-1 never becomes a named storm, when would the next window for development be (favorable MJO + CCKW)?