2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Steve]

Extra high Atlantic pressure would be an interesting reason for a season to underperform. You can see how the physics would work. And that’s part of the reason we usually don’t see much from mid-June to later in August when there’s often high pressure stretching across most of the ocean. If we don’t get any bursts until September if that’s when the MJO comes around again, you’d have to think there would be a flurry in the western basin if the waves are around (edit not calling for that, just basing off the GFs pressure tweet at the bottom of the last page)

[tolakram]

I no longer have access to the weatherbell maps, but the tropical tidbit map only shows significant above average MSLP late in the run. I also don't know the difference between the anomaly map he's using vs this one.

[skyline385]

Nothing conclusive in the EPS members, some are positive while some are negative. The GFS itself has fluctuated between runs.

[skyline385]

Updated plots from 2005 to current year for vertical instability can be found here

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/~ ... _tat_THDV/

The 2005, 2010 & 2017 are pretty nuts, and shows how far the 2022 is from them.

[NotSparta]

Updated plots from 2005 to current year for vertical instability can be found here

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/~ ... _tat_THDV/

The 2005, 2010 & 2017 are pretty nuts, and shows how far the 2022 is from them.

https://i.imgur.com/ixiHTYw.png https://i.imgur.com/u4iMjCx.png https://i.imgur.com/BEHvZXA.png

Interesting how 2013 was even higher than 2017 lol

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Updated plots from 2005 to current year for vertical instability can be found here

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/~ ... _tat_THDV/

The 2005, 2010 & 2017 are pretty nuts, and shows how far the 2022 is from them.

https://i.imgur.com/ixiHTYw.png https://i.imgur.com/u4iMjCx.png https://i.imgur.com/BEHvZXA.png

Perhaps we'll see a spike as the intraseasonal state becomes more favorable on the whole, but yes we have fallen behind some of the more active years by quite a bit.

[cycloneye]

Historically In legit a triple La Nina event, during the third La Nina, the Atlantic hurricane season tends to be mild and average.

2006 and 2012 won't be good analogs here.

This post was on March 6 on page 8 and tells one of the factors that he thought was going to hinder the 2022 season from being hyperactive / very active and looks big now.

[Hammy]

I still feel based on the conditions and location of the monsoon trough--we're getting some large waves that simply aren't consolidating especially with the dry air--that this isn't the usual August lull and it's not out of the question the MDR will likely be quiet until the first week of September, similar to 2018 and 1988 (in fact I said some months ago this year has been reminding me of 1988's weather in general.)

Could the lingering Atlantic Nina be playing any role in this?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/6_hurricane/status/1558263712645103618

[Iceresistance]

There is STILL a lot of SAL in the MDR region. 2017 had that issue too.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1.png

[cycloneye]

From wxman57 post in the 98L thread.

Looking at long range models, we may need to drop the seasonal forecast numbers down further, maybe down to 15 named storms.

[SFLcane]

From wxman57 post in the 98L thread.

Looking at long range models, we may need to drop the seasonal forecast numbers down further, maybe down to 15 named storms.

10-15 all that matters is we’re they are going.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1558401905331769344

[toad strangler]

From wxman57 post in the 98L thread.

Looking at long range models, we may need to drop the seasonal forecast numbers down further, maybe down to 15 named storms.

10-15 all that matters is we’re they are going.

Yep. Storm totals and ACE aren’t my cup of tea. There will be darts. Where they go is all that matters.

We are in peak season bust mode. That’s always peaks the week before 8/20.

[WiscoWx02]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1558401905331769344

The MJO has arrived and there isn’t even a messy monsoon trough to speak of over the Atlantic. I’m honestly at a loss…by the end of the week, I think we are going to find out if the even the near average hurricane forecast are in jeopardy or not.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1558401905331769344

The MJO has arrived and there isn’t even a messy monsoon trough to speak of over the Atlantic. I’m honestly at a loss…by the end of the week, I think we are going to find out if the even the near average hurricane forecast are in jeopardy or not.

It's the stubbornly thick SAL that is not allowing any system to develop out there.

[Kingarabian]

Models are probably adjusting to the rising motion shifting from the EPAC to the Atlantic.

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1558401905331769344

The MJO has arrived and there isn’t even a messy monsoon trough to speak of over the Atlantic. I’m honestly at a loss…by the end of the week, I think we are going to find out if the even the near average hurricane forecast are in jeopardy or not.

It's the stubbornly thick SAL that is not allowing any system to develop out there.

yea looks like a fresh outbreak

[Deshaunrob17]

I’ve said before, if this season does end up busting, the strong and 3rd year La Niña is to blame (especially 3rd year). Data is very limited with 3rd year La Niña , but the the few years we have produced a slightly above average to below average season (Ace wise) .. In terms of Strong La Niña, usually above average seasons that are below hyperactivity

[WiscoWx02]

I’ve said before, if this season does end up busting, the strong and 3rd year La Niña is to blame (especially 3rd year). Data is very limited with 3rd year La Niña , but the the few years we have produced a slightly above average to below average season (Ace wise) .. In terms of Strong La Niña, usually above average seasons that are below hyperactivity

Yeah historically 3rd year La Nina’d aren’t overly friendly to the Atlantic that’s for sure.