#1318 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:24 am
If the most recent CFS run verifies, we’re going to have a jam-packed MDR season ahead of us, which has already been hinted by the potential development of 94L.
— First inactive period during the first half of July after 94L/Bonnie
—The second half of July sees four brief MDR storms: two from 45W-60W around 7/14-16 and 7/20-22, a third from 30W-40W around 7/27, and a fourth right off the coast of Africa a few days later
—Second inactive period for the first two weeks or so of August
—MDR starts to light up after August 15th, with a strong storm forming close to the NW Caribbean islands around 8/18 that curves into Bermuda and Atlantic Canada, and a second system at ~40W on 8/22 that impacts the islands several days later and gets way too close to the CONUS for comfort
—Third inactive period during the first 10 or so days of September, before another MDR system forms near Cabo Verde on 9/12 and becomes a harmless and (potentially) high-ACE recurve
Previous CFS runs have also supported MDR storms in the second halves of July and August, with the switch really flipping around August 15-20th. If these trends are correct, then we could see a few deep tropics storms late next month and some high-ACE long-trackers during peak season, separated by a few inactive periods that could conceivably still produce some weak subtropical slop that the CFS isn’t seeing.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.