2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#781 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 13, 2022 1:56 pm

tolakram wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
This guy is another one who mis reads the NOAA return rate maps as landfalls when in actuality they represent the return of a storms center within 50 nautical miles of a location. Huge difference.


Return rates? What is that? South Florida does not follow that at all as of late infact last time the eastcoast saw a big hurricane was i can't even remember maybe 2 decades ago. I for one think something large scale has changed maybe climate change which allows us to continue dodging storms on a yearly bases. We surely are not the hurricane capitol anymore. Who knows anymore


Those return rates include hurricanes that never made actual landfall. They always have. If they were close enough NOAA considers them to be impacts. It's that same criteria that makes Florida the 'hurricane capital'.


If those return were accurate metro dade and broward are wayyyyyyyy past due for a hurricane. There has been 0 major hurricane force winds in metro south florida for yrs. Many infact have no idea what its like going through a major hurricane. Trust me its a life changing experience that stays with you as i found out with Andrew. Lets hope the luck continues to roll
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#782 Postby toad strangler » Fri May 13, 2022 1:58 pm

SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.

How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

https://i.postimg.cc/qMgM9gPP/high.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/HxLfV89H/high2.jpg

https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE


This guy is another one who mis reads the NOAA return rate maps as landfalls when in actuality they represent the return of a storms center within 50 nautical miles of a location. Huge difference.


Return rates? What is that? South Florida does not follow that at all as of late infact last time the eastcoast saw a big hurricane was i can't even remember maybe 2 decades ago. I for one think something large scale has changed maybe climate change which allows us to continue dodging storms on a yearly bases. We surely are not the hurricane capitol anymore. Who knows anymore


For instance, Matthew. This qualified for a "return" in Saint Lucie County where I lived because the center was within 50 miles of my location. The guy in the video used the word "landfalls" when referencing the map and it's a complete mis read.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#783 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 13, 2022 2:12 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#784 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri May 13, 2022 2:17 pm



I am not really seeing a 2021-esque season because of the lack of an Atlantic Niño this season. The Atlantic Nino of 2021 caused the ITCZ to move southwards, and it also created a lot of shear in the Western Atlantic à la 2007.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#785 Postby Blown Away » Fri May 13, 2022 3:10 pm



ECMWF suggests "Reduced Expected Value" in the Central Atlantic and negative NAO prediction suggests weaker ridging? Wouldn't we expect more recurve activity in the Central Atlantic and Higher Expected values in that region?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#786 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 13, 2022 4:12 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#787 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 13, 2022 7:23 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#788 Postby blp » Fri May 13, 2022 7:31 pm

Last edited by blp on Fri May 13, 2022 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#789 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 13, 2022 7:33 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#790 Postby Cpv17 » Fri May 13, 2022 11:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:Caribbean may be very active.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1525269862460690432


This doesn’t look good for Texas. The bad drought is only going to get worse. We’re not quite on the 2011 level drought yet but if this map verifies then we very well might be. Now I’m not saying I want a hurricane here but a weak tc would be very nice.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#791 Postby zzh » Sat May 14, 2022 12:01 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:


I am not really seeing a 2021-esque season because of the lack of an Atlantic Niño this season. The Atlantic Nino of 2021 caused the ITCZ to move southwards, and it also created a lot of shear in the Western Atlantic à la 2007.

How does atl Nino create shear in the Western Atlantic?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#792 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat May 14, 2022 4:54 am

zzh wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:


I am not really seeing a 2021-esque season because of the lack of an Atlantic Niño this season. The Atlantic Nino of 2021 caused the ITCZ to move southwards, and it also created a lot of shear in the Western Atlantic à la 2007.

How does atl Nino create shear in the Western Atlantic?


La Nina years with strong Atlantic Ninos (e.g. 2007 and 2021) often have Jet Streams that go farther south than typical La Nina years, overriding the favorable conditions imposed by the La Nina.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#794 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 14, 2022 7:48 am

Big news folks! The C3S VP200a look for ASO is hyperactive. For those wondering what this is it’s a Blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, JMA, ICON, Meteo-France, Canadian, CFSv2, & Euro-Mediterranean climate models. The atmosphere is primed! Will the ocean get there is a question.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#795 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 14, 2022 8:24 am

SFLcane wrote:Big news folks! The C3S VP200a look for ASO is hyperactive. For those wondering what this is it’s a Blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, JMA, ICON, Meteo-France, Canadian, CFSv2, & Euro-Mediterranean climate models. The atmosphere is primed! Will the ocean get there is a question.


Looking at those precipitation plots, I dont think we are at hyperactive just yet

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525096924738686976


Last edited by skyline385 on Sat May 14, 2022 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#796 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat May 14, 2022 8:31 am

Judging by some of those plots, it looks like we may potentially be in for a hurricane season that is very Caribbean-focused. Not saying it will be like 2020 in that sense (that remains to be seen), but I do feel that this year may have the potential to have a highly favorable Caribbean, which aside from 2020 is something we have not really seen since...2008.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#797 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 14, 2022 8:37 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Judging by some of those plots, it looks like we may potentially be in for a hurricane season that is very Caribbean-focused. Not saying it will be like 2020 in that sense (that remains to be seen), but I do feel that this year may have the potential to have a highly favorable Caribbean, which aside from 2020 is something we have not really seen since...2008.


Yea almost all indicators this season seem to point to a Caribbean focused one.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#798 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 14, 2022 9:59 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#799 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat May 14, 2022 11:07 am

skyline385 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Judging by some of those plots, it looks like we may potentially be in for a hurricane season that is very Caribbean-focused. Not saying it will be like 2020 in that sense (that remains to be seen), but I do feel that this year may have the potential to have a highly favorable Caribbean, which aside from 2020 is something we have not really seen since...2008.


Yea almost all indicators this season seem to point to a Caribbean focused one.


A Western-based season is very likely. My analogs for 2022 are 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020. Among those, 1998, 2001, 2005, and 2020 are heavily Western-based.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#800 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat May 14, 2022 11:20 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Judging by some of those plots, it looks like we may potentially be in for a hurricane season that is very Caribbean-focused. Not saying it will be like 2020 in that sense (that remains to be seen), but I do feel that this year may have the potential to have a highly favorable Caribbean, which aside from 2020 is something we have not really seen since...2008.


Yea almost all indicators this season seem to point to a Caribbean focused one.


A Western-based season is very likely. My analogs for 2022 are 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020. Among those, 1998, 2001, 2005, and 2020 are heavily Western-based.


Is there a reason why 2008 is not in there? I have 2008 as my chief analog year, if anything I feel storm tracks and location this year could be quite similar to 2008, if not a juiced up version of 2008.
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