2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1301 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:42 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Remember, the African monsoon peaks twice, once in June, and second through classic Cape Verde season, which is from late July to late September. So we do see vigorous waves in June.

Also the MJO which was causing the hyperactivity in the Caribbean has moved into the Eastern Atlantic and the African coast, we will see a period of suppressed activity in mid July because of it.

Image

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1302 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:14 am

skyline385 wrote:While the Gulf SST are highly variable and not directly related to seasonal ACE, we seem to be running much ahead of previous seasons (including 2020 & 2005) because of the heat. And then there is the strong loop current prevailing this year. Not going to end up pretty for any system entering the Gulf if this continues.

https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1538886318746480640
https://i.imgur.com/haDyByB.png
https://i.imgur.com/1Kkdfye.png


The loop current looks like it is going to pinch off reminiscent of the 2005 hurricane season which is the last time I remember seeing that happen which would make sense since it happens around every 10-15 years
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1303 Postby IsabelaWeather » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:26 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/kEbcJXz.png


Yeah, that’s a yikes from me. I already long for the days of 2018-19 when the whole mdr was a moistureless dust-laden graveyard. Strap in every one… I think we are in for a serious ride



Hard pass, we desperately need the moisture from strong waves or some weak TCs. My reserviour is actually almost at the stage where they ration water.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Caribbean
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1304 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:32 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/kEbcJXz.png


Yeah, that’s a yikes from me. I already long for the days of 2018-19 when the whole mdr was a moistureless dust-laden graveyard. Strap in every one… I think we are in for a serious ride



Hard pass, we desperately need the moisture from strong waves or some weak TCs. My reserviour is actually almost at the stage where they ration water.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Caribbean


Agree. In Puerto Rico, rationing of water will begin in early July if it does not rain in a significant way. The best shot for a lot of rain will be the second wave.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1305 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:
Yeah, that’s a yikes from me. I already long for the days of 2018-19 when the whole mdr was a moistureless dust-laden graveyard. Strap in every one… I think we are in for a serious ride



Hard pass, we desperately need the moisture from strong waves or some weak TCs. My reserviour is actually almost at the stage where they ration water.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Caribbean


Agree. In Puerto Rico, rationing of water will begin in early July if it does not rain in a significant way. The best shot for a lot of rain will be the second wave.


Hopefully you guys can get some nice rain from the waves but avoid TC impacts this season
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1307 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:33 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1308 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:46 pm

Genuinely curious, but did the NHC not take notice of the potential Eastern Seaboard system later this week? I thought many models were interested in at least a brief spinup there?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1309 Postby Zonacane » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:10 pm

The Atlantic is starting to wake up. Once the switch gets flipped, it will be another brutal year.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1310 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:22 am

Zonacane wrote:The Atlantic is starting to wake up. Once the switch gets flipped, it will be another brutal year.

The SST pattern (along with other variables) already look extremely ominous. Only thing that would help at this point would be a recurve-heavy season.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1311 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:49 pm

I was looking at past season that had high ACE counts ie 200+ then out of curiosity i looked at the SST's for today in the past years 1995, 2004, 2005 and 2017 and it struck to me how similar looking they was not just for the Atlantic put also Western Eastern Pacific [Edit to correct the right side of the Pacific]. They also so look just like what we have today as well.

1995


2004


2005


2017


2022
Last edited by ChrisH-UK on Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1312 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:23 pm

ChrisH-UK wrote:I was looking at past season that had high ACE counts ie 200+ then out of curiosity i looked at the SST's for today in the past years 1995, 2004, 2005 and 2017 and it struck to me how similar looking they was not just for the Atlantic put also Western Pacific. They also so look just like what we have today as well.

1995
https://imgur.com/jswnvsS

2004
https://imgur.com/iGV2eej

2005
https://imgur.com/b277gGJ

2017
https://imgur.com/wNnHysE

2022
https://imgur.com/1AK1399


You mean the CPAC and EPAC right. WPAC is west of 180 and those graphics don't show it. CPAC and EPAC SST configurations correlate with Atlantic activity more than the WPAC. But this is correct and it has a lot to do with ENSO.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1313 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:22 pm

European weeklies. This is for August 8. :eek:

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1540081497964691460


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1314 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:European weeklies. This is for August 8. :eek:

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1540081497964691460

Based on the latest 850mb wind forecasts for July, there's support for another 1-2 MDR systems before August. Probably between the last 2 weeks of July when the supressed MJO phase moves out.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1315 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:50 pm

Wow…based on what may happen with this future MDR system and the long range July/August condition forecasts, I genuinely think that this season has the potential to be a cruel and memorable one. Hoping for recurves of course, as above average to *possibly* hyperactive is looking quite probable at this point.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1316 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:12 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
ChrisH-UK wrote:I was looking at past season that had high ACE counts ie 200+ then out of curiosity i looked at the SST's for today in the past years 1995, 2004, 2005 and 2017 and it struck to me how similar looking they was not just for the Atlantic put also Western Pacific. They also so look just like what we have today as well.

1995
https://imgur.com/jswnvsS

2004
https://imgur.com/iGV2eej

2005
https://imgur.com/b277gGJ

2017
https://imgur.com/wNnHysE

2022
https://imgur.com/1AK1399


You mean the CPAC and EPAC right. WPAC is west of 180 and those graphics don't show it. CPAC and EPAC SST configurations correlate with Atlantic activity more than the WPAC. But this is correct and it has a lot to do with ENSO.


Ack, your right East Pac.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1317 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:14 pm

ChrisH-UK wrote:Ack, your right East Pac.


Good post, though. :sun:
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split 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1318 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:24 am

If the most recent CFS run verifies, we’re going to have a jam-packed MDR season ahead of us, which has already been hinted by the potential development of 94L.
— First inactive period during the first half of July after 94L/Bonnie
—The second half of July sees four brief MDR storms: two from 45W-60W around 7/14-16 and 7/20-22, a third from 30W-40W around 7/27, and a fourth right off the coast of Africa a few days later
—Second inactive period for the first two weeks or so of August
—MDR starts to light up after August 15th, with a strong storm forming close to the NW Caribbean islands around 8/18 that curves into Bermuda and Atlantic Canada, and a second system at ~40W on 8/22 that impacts the islands several days later and gets way too close to the CONUS for comfort
—Third inactive period during the first 10 or so days of September, before another MDR system forms near Cabo Verde on 9/12 and becomes a harmless and (potentially) high-ACE recurve

Previous CFS runs have also supported MDR storms in the second halves of July and August, with the switch really flipping around August 15-20th. If these trends are correct, then we could see a few deep tropics storms late next month and some high-ACE long-trackers during peak season, separated by a few inactive periods that could conceivably still produce some weak subtropical slop that the CFS isn’t seeing.
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Re: RE: split 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1319 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:01 pm

aspen wrote:If the most recent CFS run verifies, we’re going to have a jam-packed MDR season ahead of us, which has already been hinted by the potential development of 94L.
— First inactive period during the first half of July after 94L/Bonnie
—The second half of July sees four brief MDR storms: two from 45W-60W around 7/14-16 and 7/20-22, a third from 30W-40W around 7/27, and a fourth right off the coast of Africa a few days later
—Second inactive period for the first two weeks or so of August
—MDR starts to light up after August 15th, with a strong storm forming close to the NW Caribbean islands around 8/18 that curves into Bermuda and Atlantic Canada, and a second system at ~40W on 8/22 that impacts the islands several days later and gets way too close to the CONUS for comfort
—Third inactive period during the first 10 or so days of September, before another MDR system forms near Cabo Verde on 9/12 and becomes a harmless and (potentially) high-ACE recurve

Previous CFS runs have also supported MDR storms in the second halves of July and August, with the switch really flipping around August 15-20th. If these trends are correct, then we could see a few deep tropics storms late next month and some high-ACE long-trackers during peak season, separated by a few inactive periods that could conceivably still produce some weak subtropical slop that the CFS isn’t seeing.
Can you share a link to where you are seeing this? The precipitation averages don't show much activity and even suggest a dry end of July and first week of August. The latest 45 day EPS also don't show much activity after 94L.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk
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Re: RE: split 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1320 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:57 am

skyline385 wrote:
aspen wrote:If the most recent CFS run verifies, we’re going to have a jam-packed MDR season ahead of us, which has already been hinted by the potential development of 94L.
— First inactive period during the first half of July after 94L/Bonnie
—The second half of July sees four brief MDR storms: two from 45W-60W around 7/14-16 and 7/20-22, a third from 30W-40W around 7/27, and a fourth right off the coast of Africa a few days later
—Second inactive period for the first two weeks or so of August
—MDR starts to light up after August 15th, with a strong storm forming close to the NW Caribbean islands around 8/18 that curves into Bermuda and Atlantic Canada, and a second system at ~40W on 8/22 that impacts the islands several days later and gets way too close to the CONUS for comfort
—Third inactive period during the first 10 or so days of September, before another MDR system forms near Cabo Verde on 9/12 and becomes a harmless and (potentially) high-ACE recurve

Previous CFS runs have also supported MDR storms in the second halves of July and August, with the switch really flipping around August 15-20th. If these trends are correct, then we could see a few deep tropics storms late next month and some high-ACE long-trackers during peak season, separated by a few inactive periods that could conceivably still produce some weak subtropical slop that the CFS isn’t seeing.
Can you share a link to where you are seeing this? The precipitation averages don't show much activity and even suggest a dry end of July and first week of August. The latest 45 day EPS also don't show much activity after 94L.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

Here’s the CFS model I’ve been looking at: https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin ... RIOD=&WMO=
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