2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2821 Postby NotSparta » Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:17 am

SconnieCane wrote:I see in the other thread we've flipped directly from "The models show nothing, surely they must be right and we will have a 0/0/0 August" to "The models show something, surely they must be overdoing it."

I am serious...and stop calling me Shirley.

How many Airplane! references can I sneak into this thread, lol.


Yep... when people are as bearish as possible that's when you know the switch is just about here :lol:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2822 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:36 am

cycloneye wrote:About the different products to analize ssta data.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1558999073385959424


8/14/22 OSTIA updated SSTs anomaly map.

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2823 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:49 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2824 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:55 am

NotSparta wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:I see in the other thread we've flipped directly from "The models show nothing, surely they must be right and we will have a 0/0/0 August" to "The models show something, surely they must be overdoing it."

I am serious...and stop calling me Shirley.

How many Airplane! references can I sneak into this thread, lol.


Yep... when people are as bearish as possible that's when you know the switch is just about here :lol:


With a setup like this, it should be soon.

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2825 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:41 am

The mood swings in both directions (not just at this forum) from one operational run to the next are interesting considering that operational runs are not reliable, especially beyond a few days.
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2826 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:54 am

Is August 15th and climatology is going up the mountain, so no more excuses.

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2827 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:59 am

Shear tendency is negative- It's all lined up! If dry air kills this next batch, season is screwed.

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2828 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 15, 2022 9:00 am

Something that’s a little concerning is the large swath of 29-30C SSTs off the Southeast coast and around the Bahamas and Bermuda. We all know what happened 3 years ago in late August/early September when a western MDR storm made its way into that region after the switch finally flipped. Such high SSTs and MPIs this close to land in a potentially slightly west-based season (assuming the MDR continues to have problems with wave breaking and dry air from the cool Canary Current) are never reassuring.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2829 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 15, 2022 10:38 am

I was just updating our seasonal outlook. Checking the August ECMWF forecasts, I see the Euro is now forecasting activity close to normal, with a focus on the subtropics vs. the Caribbean & Gulf. Named storms is 13 + whatever forms in August. Only 4.6 hurricanes + any August hurricanes. Waves coming off Africa are far from impressive and are rather far north. My office hurricane pool numbers of 15/7/3 are looking pretty good.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2830 Postby hurricane2025 » Mon Aug 15, 2022 10:45 am

wxman57 wrote:I was just updating our seasonal outlook. Checking the August ECMWF forecasts, I see the Euro is now forecasting activity close to normal, with a focus on the subtropics vs. the Caribbean & Gulf. Named storms is 13 + whatever forms in August. Only 4.6 hurricanes + any August hurricanes. Waves coming off Africa are far from impressive and are rather far north. My office hurricane pool numbers of 15/7/3 are looking pretty good.



Where at in the gulf ?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2831 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 15, 2022 10:49 am

wxman57 wrote:I was just updating our seasonal outlook. Checking the August ECMWF forecasts, I see the Euro is now forecasting activity close to normal, with a focus on the subtropics vs. the Caribbean & Gulf. Named storms is 13 + whatever forms in August. Only 4.6 hurricanes + any August hurricanes. Waves coming off Africa are far from impressive and are rather far north. My office hurricane pool numbers of 15/7/3 are looking pretty good.


??

Hmm.. Were are just now climbing the climatological hill were a burst off activity seems likely as the EPS and the GEFS are illustrating.

The ECMWF last update still had seasonal ace up near 160.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2832 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:27 am

SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I was just updating our seasonal outlook. Checking the August ECMWF forecasts, I see the Euro is now forecasting activity close to normal, with a focus on the subtropics vs. the Caribbean & Gulf. Named storms is 13 + whatever forms in August. Only 4.6 hurricanes + any August hurricanes. Waves coming off Africa are far from impressive and are rather far north. My office hurricane pool numbers of 15/7/3 are looking pretty good.


??

Hmm.. Were are just now climbing the climatological hill were a burst off activity seems likely as the EPS and the GEFS are illustrating.

The ECMWF last update still had seasonal ace up near 160.


It's interesting that the EC went from 40% above normal ACE from Aug-Nov to 50% above normal Sept-Nov. Of course, that 140% was from July-Nov. Maybe the EC thought August would be below normal? I'm not so sure about any near-term (next 7-10 days) burst i activity. I think we could see 1-2 named storms this month, but that's way below what I had thought we would see. That would make about 5 named storms through August. I could see 6-8 in September as possible. Maybe 3-4 beyond September. That could total 16-17 for the season. I still think the focus may be on the SE U.S., including the East U.S. Coast. Wondering if the MDR will spawn a major hurricane that will impact the east Caribbean islands. Waves coming off Africa now are fairly far north, indicating tracks north of the Caribbean. Meanwhile, I'll enjoy taking another Thu-Fri off this week.
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How many named storms will form in September?

#2833 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:33 am

Not that I want any, because late August and September tend to be notorious months for the central Gulf. I just figure that sooner or later that assembly line in Africa will kick into gear, and even a few from continental systems that break off (in the South) and always late season Caribbean to Gulf storms. I went with 7 or more because much as I don't like 'em... I feel a flurry coming on in coming weeks.

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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#2834 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:46 am

1969 was another year... one early storm in May.... didn't have a third named storm till mid-August (and what a storm: Camille!) ... the year wound up with 23 depressions, 18 storms, 12 hurricanes and 3 majors. Never count these things out till you're well into November.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2835 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:20 pm

hurricane2025 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I was just updating our seasonal outlook. Checking the August ECMWF forecasts, I see the Euro is now forecasting activity close to normal, with a focus on the subtropics vs. the Caribbean & Gulf. Named storms is 13 + whatever forms in August. Only 4.6 hurricanes + any August hurricanes. Waves coming off Africa are far from impressive and are rather far north. My office hurricane pool numbers of 15/7/3 are looking pretty good.



Where at in the gulf ?


Re-read that.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2836 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:27 pm

Image
In an average year, 17.7% of the season's total CAT1+ hurricanes formed before the week ending 8/16, (82.3% formed after 8/16).
By the end of August, 33% have historically formed (66% after 8/30).
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2837 Postby TROPICALCYCLONEALERT » Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:27 pm

Since we’re virtually at peak bust-casting levels, I might as well post these two images to show where we stand with respect to climatology. The second image are the bottom 25 years for ACE to date — wide variety of outcomes still, but many of them below average.

Image
Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2838 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:16 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2839 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Aug 15, 2022 3:12 pm

SconnieCane wrote:I see in the other thread we've flipped directly from "The models show nothing, surely they must be right and we will have a 0/0/0 August" to "The models show something, surely they must be overdoing it."

I am serious...and stop calling me Shirley.

How many Airplane! references can I sneak into this thread, lol.

Just wanted to say Good Luck we are all counting on you.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2840 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I was just updating our seasonal outlook. Checking the August ECMWF forecasts, I see the Euro is now forecasting activity close to normal, with a focus on the subtropics vs. the Caribbean & Gulf. Named storms is 13 + whatever forms in August. Only 4.6 hurricanes + any August hurricanes. Waves coming off Africa are far from impressive and are rather far north. My office hurricane pool numbers of 15/7/3 are looking pretty good.


??

Hmm.. Were are just now climbing the climatological hill were a burst off activity seems likely as the EPS and the GEFS are illustrating.

The ECMWF last update still had seasonal ace up near 160.


It's interesting that the EC went from 40% above normal ACE from Aug-Nov to 50% above normal Sept-Nov. Of course, that 140% was from July-Nov. Maybe the EC thought August would be below normal? I'm not so sure about any near-term (next 7-10 days) burst i activity. I think we could see 1-2 named storms this month, but that's way below what I had thought we would see. That would make about 5 named storms through August. I could see 6-8 in September as possible. Maybe 3-4 beyond September. That could total 16-17 for the season. I still think the focus may be on the SE U.S., including the East U.S. Coast. Wondering if the MDR will spawn a major hurricane that will impact the east Caribbean islands. Waves coming off Africa now are fairly far north, indicating tracks north of the Caribbean. Meanwhile, I'll enjoy taking another Thu-Fri off this week.


It maybe your last long weekend to enjoy by looking at models' trend.
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