2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:34 am

Just in time for New Year’s Eve, I’ve decided to “lighten the load” for cycloneye et al. and start the annual thread. 8-) (Links were copied from here.)

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rCUMP_048.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_gmx_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /nao.shtml

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_natl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_tropatl.png

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_natl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_tropatl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_change_natl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_change_tropatl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/natlssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrglob.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/eatlssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/carssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/gomssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... plit&time=

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/13/1800x1080.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/pr/GEOCOLOR/1200x1200.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/pr/13/600x600.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/13/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/13/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/13/1000x1000.jpg

ECMWF MSLP Updates
Last edited by Shell Mound on Fri Dec 31, 2021 4:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 30, 2021 12:38 pm

No problem at all as this topic is not mine exclusively. :D

FYI= There is a new link for the ECMWF MLSP charts.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1968
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Dec 30, 2021 1:42 pm

The big question this early, as usual, is whether or not we see El Niño development. It's a bit more likely to have an El Niño follow a second year Niña than a first year Niña, but right now neutral is probably slightly favored, at least for ASO. For El Niño to have a significant effect on the entire hurricane season, it would need to develop in summer rather than fall.

Atlantic hurricane seasons that follow second year La Niñas historically have not been as hyperactive as La Niña years. In some cases, they have even been El Niños. It is possible to get a three year La Niña (like 2000), but this is not very common. Right now, my "most likely" scenario for 2022 is a season with warm-neutral ENSO, fewer major hurricanes than 2020 and 2021, and more of a subtropics focus than the last two years with potentially less intense activity in the deep tropics.

Atlantic hurricane seasons following second-year La Niña events since the active era began in 1995:
2000: 15-8-3, 119 ACE (-0.5C ASO ONI)
2009: 9-3-2, 53 ACE (+0.7C ASO ONI)
2012: 19-10-2, 133 ACE (+0.3C ASO ONI)
2018: 15-8-2, 129 ACE (+0.5C ASO ONI)
Average: 14.5-7.25-2.25, 108.5 ACE
6 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#4 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Dec 30, 2021 2:42 pm

I'll just leave these here for now, but I generally have a sense that for this season we may be dealing with some form of neutral. Whether it's warm or cool is still unknown, but I feel like the warming is not as fast and intense enough for a bona fide El Nino to happen, and based on historical trends I'm simply unsure if we will get a third year La Nina as such is extremely rare.

Image

Image

Image

Image

The one alarming thing I have noticed consistently pop up in back to back runs is the Cansip's idea of striking, basin-wide above average sst anomalies in the Atlantic during the ASO part of 2022. While it is almost certainly too early to take this seriously, I'd have to imagine that having a very warm Atlantic during the heart of hurricane season and a lack of El Nino cannot be a good thing.
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#5 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:53 pm

There is very little useful data at this stage, but the data that is available suggests that 2022 might be a warm-neutral/El Nino year.

Image
Image

The weakening of the -PDO is certainly interesting, however. A warming PDO could be a sign of a +ENSO this season.

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#6 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:45 am

For all our sake let’s hope this changes! :eek:

Image
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#7 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:04 am

SFLcane wrote:For all our sake let’s hope this changes! :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/TPyVN9fm/4-C2-FE8-A8-DC6-A-4-A0-A-9482-C5-E988197-D73.png


Looks like that warmer than average West Atlantic in October and November of last year that failed to fuel any systems passing over is really eager to accumulate. Have no idea if it'll last throughout the months ahead, but there's this as well:

Image

If that's the case, assuming no El Nino forms (let alone us entering a cool neutral state or something like that)...we may be having a totally different sst anomalies discussion compared to earlier last year.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#8 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:30 am

Image

Image

Image

Above the CanSIPS forecasts for September 2021 and 2022 are shown, as well as the actual SSTA map for September 2021. The CanSIPS forecast generally verified quite well; it saw the -ENSO, the -PDO, the -IOD, and the +AMO. It also saw the +AMM pattern. It did underestimate SSTAs in the North Atlantic but not by much. It also did not foresee any Atlantic Nino, which is something to consider.

The current CanSIPS forecasts has something entirely different. It forecasts a neutral IOD, a +ENSO, a +PDO, and a -AMM. It also forecasts the lack of an Atlantic Nino and strongly negative SSTAs in the North Atlantic. It is too early to tell whether this holds, but as of January 2022, this is how the peak of hurricane season looks; this season could be significantly less active than previous seasons.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15424
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:55 pm

:uarrow: That's a cool PDO on the Canadian + a cold Nino 1+2. Not entirely a favorable EPAC setup as well.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:55 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#11 Postby aspen » Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:09 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/26hxSKgP/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Bb3BLC0t/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0xf1mrR/tcm-Ls0-Hs-HG.png

Above the CanSIPS forecasts for September 2021 and 2022 are shown, as well as the actual SSTA map for September 2021. The CanSIPS forecast generally verified quite well; it saw the -ENSO, the -PDO, the -IOD, and the +AMO. It also saw the +AMM pattern. It did underestimate SSTAs in the North Atlantic but not by much. It also did not foresee any Atlantic Nino, which is something to consider.

The current CanSIPS forecasts has something entirely different. It forecasts a neutral IOD, a +ENSO, a +PDO, and a -AMM. It also forecasts the lack of an Atlantic Nino and strongly negative SSTAs in the North Atlantic. It is too early to tell whether this holds, but as of January 2022, this is how the peak of hurricane season looks; this season could be significantly less active than previous seasons.

Above-average SSTs also extend well into the subtropics on that CanSIPS run, despite a warm ENSO. Perhaps that could lead to a season like 2012 or 2018 with enhanced activity north of 20N, such as all the subtropical systems in 2018 and C3 Michael in 2012. The developing +ENSO could also potentially result in many deep tropic struggle-storms like in 2012.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#12 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:44 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tv3xY0eI6XU

Interesting and very informative video by Mark as always, first of 2022 out! Very interesting to see how the CFV2 seems to be trending toward a more cool neutral pattern by the heart of hurricane season (even on the brink of -0.5 C). I think the bottomline is that while a Nino region warm-up is definitely still expected, there may not be enough forcing that will allow a true El Nino to form by the end of this year. Oh yeah, and assuming the Atlantic is still warm by ASO...we *may* be in for yet ANOTHER active season. :eek:
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

zzh
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 375
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:18 pm

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#13 Postby zzh » Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:40 pm

Shell Mound, I can't see the pictures, they are just links.
1 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19134
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#14 Postby tolakram » Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:50 pm

zzh wrote:Shell Mound, I can't see the pictures, they are just links.


They are links to the current conditions, sources for when you want to see the latest.
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#15 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:24 am

aspen wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/26hxSKgP/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Bb3BLC0t/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0xf1mrR/tcm-Ls0-Hs-HG.png

Above the CanSIPS forecasts for September 2021 and 2022 are shown, as well as the actual SSTA map for September 2021. The CanSIPS forecast generally verified quite well; it saw the -ENSO, the -PDO, the -IOD, and the +AMO. It also saw the +AMM pattern. It did underestimate SSTAs in the North Atlantic but not by much. It also did not foresee any Atlantic Nino, which is something to consider.

The current CanSIPS forecasts has something entirely different. It forecasts a neutral IOD, a +ENSO, a +PDO, and a -AMM. It also forecasts the lack of an Atlantic Nino and strongly negative SSTAs in the North Atlantic. It is too early to tell whether this holds, but as of January 2022, this is how the peak of hurricane season looks; this season could be significantly less active than previous seasons.

Above-average SSTs also extend well into the subtropics on that CanSIPS run, despite a warm ENSO. Perhaps that could lead to a season like 2012 or 2018 with enhanced activity north of 20N, such as all the subtropical systems in 2018 and C3 Michael in 2012. The developing +ENSO could also potentially result in many deep tropic struggle-storms like in 2012.

The combination of a -AMM/+PMM/-PDO and warm neutral ENSO could also lead to a situation in which overall activity and ACE end up near long-term averages but storms develop and intensify close to the CONUS. After all, both 2012 and 2018 featured such near-shore intensifiers as Isaac, Sandy, and Michael. Seasons that feature a warm subtropics tend to feature less activity in the deep tropics but more “homegrown” development in the Gulf or along the East Coast. During strong +AMM (-AMM) cycles storms actually tend to weaken (strengthen) as they near the CONUS, owing to stronger (weaker) shear in the subtropics vs. deep tropics. In 2022 I wouldn’t preclude a storm like, say, the 1934 Morro Castle hurricane, Carol/Edna (1954), Eloise (1975), Diana (1984), Elena (1985), Bob (1991), or last year’s Ida. The past several seasons have actually generated a number of near-shore intensifiers, including such storms as Barry and Dorian (2019), as well as Hannah, Isaac, Laura, and Sally (2020).
1 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#16 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:13 pm

It seems that four variables will tell the story of this season: Niño 3.4 SSTAs, TNA SSTAs, AMM, and Atlantic Niño SSTAs. In short, the Niño 3.4 SSTAs will indicate the patterns of rising air between the Atlantic and the Pacific; the TNA will indicate the raw SSTAs in the MDR; the AMM will indicate rising air patterns within the Atlantic; the Atlantic Niño will indicate the latitude of the ITCZ and the dependance on the MDR.

  1. Higher Niño 3.4 SSTA means less overall activity in the late season'.
  2. Higher TNA SSTA means more activity in the deep tropics.
  3. Higher AMM means a greater emphasis towards tropical activity as opposed to subtropical activity.
  4. Higher Atlantic Niño SSTA means a greater emphasis towards MDR activity and less activity in the deep tropics in the late season.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#17 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:16 pm

Found this a pretty interesting. Another active season with neutral ENSO does make sense potentially.

https://youtu.be/GUZGP3zGlyA
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#18 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:23 pm

I am personally extremely curious to see if this season continues the impressive "strongest storm of the season being at least a high end Cat 4 with 155 mph 1-min sustained winds" streak since 2015, let alone feature a bona fide, undoubtful Category 5 hurricane. We're arguably in some uncharted territory here as no other recorded historical times have had at least 7 consecutive years with the strongest storm of the season being a near-Cat 5.
3 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:59 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
aspen wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/26hxSKgP/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Bb3BLC0t/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0xf1mrR/tcm-Ls0-Hs-HG.png

Above the CanSIPS forecasts for September 2021 and 2022 are shown, as well as the actual SSTA map for September 2021. The CanSIPS forecast generally verified quite well; it saw the -ENSO, the -PDO, the -IOD, and the +AMO. It also saw the +AMM pattern. It did underestimate SSTAs in the North Atlantic but not by much. It also did not foresee any Atlantic Nino, which is something to consider.

The current CanSIPS forecasts has something entirely different. It forecasts a neutral IOD, a +ENSO, a +PDO, and a -AMM. It also forecasts the lack of an Atlantic Nino and strongly negative SSTAs in the North Atlantic. It is too early to tell whether this holds, but as of January 2022, this is how the peak of hurricane season looks; this season could be significantly less active than previous seasons.

Above-average SSTs also extend well into the subtropics on that CanSIPS run, despite a warm ENSO. Perhaps that could lead to a season like 2012 or 2018 with enhanced activity north of 20N, such as all the subtropical systems in 2018 and C3 Michael in 2012. The developing +ENSO could also potentially result in many deep tropic struggle-storms like in 2012.

The combination of a -AMM/+PMM/-PDO and warm neutral ENSO could also lead to a situation in which overall activity and ACE end up near long-term averages but storms develop and intensify close to the CONUS. After all, both 2012 and 2018 featured such near-shore intensifiers as Isaac, Sandy, and Michael. Seasons that feature a warm subtropics tend to feature less activity in the deep tropics but more “homegrown” development in the Gulf or along the East Coast. During strong +AMM (-AMM) cycles storms actually tend to weaken (strengthen) as they near the CONUS, owing to stronger (weaker) shear in the subtropics vs. deep tropics. In 2022 I wouldn’t preclude a storm like, say, the 1934 Morro Castle hurricane, Carol/Edna (1954), Eloise (1975), Diana (1984), Elena (1985), Bob (1991), or last year’s Ida. The past several seasons have actually generated a number of near-shore intensifiers, including such storms as Barry and Dorian (2019), as well as Hannah, Isaac, Laura, and Sally (2020).


2018 was definitely +AMM and related teleconnections are the only reason why the season was remotely active.
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#20 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:37 pm

Image

Whatever happens going forward this year, all I will say is that so far, the Atlantic's +sst anomalies have really hit the ground running.
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: JetFuel_SE and 38 guests