2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Monsoonjr99
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 208
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:22 pm
Location: Inland Empire, SoCal

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3601 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:53 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Very quiet Augusts in the Atlantic (< 5 ACE) and how September followed, since 1950:

1957: 2 ACE in August, 63 ACE in September
1961: 0 ACE in August, 122 ACE in September
1967: 0 ACE in August, 97 ACE in September
1977: 3 ACE in August, 19 ACE in September
1982: 3 ACE in August, 21 ACE in September
1984: 3 ACE in August, 30 ACE in September
1988: 2 ACE in August, 71 ACE in September
1997: 0 ACE in August, 26 ACE in September
2002: 3 ACE in August, 46 ACE in September
2013: 2 ACE in August, 16 ACE in September
2018: 2 ACE in August, 72 ACE in September

The average ACE for the following September is 53, and the median ACE for the following September is 46. This is slightly lower than the 1991-2020 mean ACE for September, which is ~57, but a very quiet August is not always followed with a quiet September. In fact, some years have been quite the opposite.


After finishing with roughly 76 ACE, a respectable amount, September 2022 falls in the upper echelon of these analogs, only behind 1967 and 1961.
5 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.

Kay '22, Hilary '23

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1903
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3602 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:01 pm

Looks like we might not get much of a break in October...
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1576178421956124672


0 likes   

Monsoonjr99
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 208
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:22 pm
Location: Inland Empire, SoCal

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3603 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:08 pm

Has Ian defused the W. Caribbean OHC any?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.

Kay '22, Hilary '23

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3604 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:33 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:Has Ian defused the W. Caribbean OHC any?


It wasn't that strong when it was there, so it didn't really do much to dent the UOHC in the Caribbean. Which, as you may infer, may not be good considering there's a potential system that models think may be brewing in the Caribbean later this month
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 847
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3605 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:55 pm

No rest for the weary...



3 likes   

mantis83
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 123
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:47 pm

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3606 Postby mantis83 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:08 pm

far enough south to hopefully just crash into central america, whatever forms....
0 likes   

SteveM
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:21 am

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3607 Postby SteveM » Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:42 am

mantis83 wrote:far enough south to hopefully just crash into central america, whatever forms....

People live there too!
10 likes   

blueskies
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3608 Postby blueskies » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:09 pm

Are the water temperatures in the Gulf cooler after Ian? Will lower water temperatures lower the likelihood of strong storms developing in the Gulf the rest of the season?
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3609 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:14 pm

mantis83 wrote:far enough south to hopefully just crash into central america, whatever forms....


Umm...you do know places like Honduras and Nicaragua are there, which were absolutely brutalized by Eta and Iota merely several years ago? The last thing those countries need is another powerful hurricane, and it really doesn't help that they are developing nations and their geography is prone to flooding.
6 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

Dougiefresh
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:07 am
Location: Barbados

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3610 Postby Dougiefresh » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:28 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
mantis83 wrote:far enough south to hopefully just crash into central america, whatever forms....


Umm...you do know places like Honduras and Nicaragua are there, which were absolutely brutalized by Eta and Iota merely several years ago? The last thing those countries need is another powerful hurricane, and it really doesn't help that they are developing nations and their geography is prone to flooding.


It seems as if people on here, I assume mostly Americans, forget that people live in other parts of the world. By saying ' far enough south to hopefully just crash into central america' sounds as if they don't care about anyone else other than mainland America, which is a shame. I have seen that sentiment repeated many times in the past in this forum too.
9 likes   

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 847
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3611 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:40 pm

Dougiefresh wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
mantis83 wrote:far enough south to hopefully just crash into central america, whatever forms....


Umm...you do know places like Honduras and Nicaragua are there, which were absolutely brutalized by Eta and Iota merely several years ago? The last thing those countries need is another powerful hurricane, and it really doesn't help that they are developing nations and their geography is prone to flooding.


It seems as if people on here, I assume mostly Americans, forget that people live in other parts of the world. By saying ' far enough south to hopefully just crash into central america' sounds as if they don't care about anyone else other than mainland America, which is a shame. I have seen that sentiment repeated many times in the past in this forum too.


Well I presume they didn’t mean they hope it explodes into a cat 5 and brutalizes the region :lol: just that they hope it stays weak and therefore drifts westward
2 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6771
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: RE: Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3612 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:47 pm

Dougiefresh wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
mantis83 wrote:far enough south to hopefully just crash into central america, whatever forms....


Umm...you do know places like Honduras and Nicaragua are there, which were absolutely brutalized by Eta and Iota merely several years ago? The last thing those countries need is another powerful hurricane, and it really doesn't help that they are developing nations and their geography is prone to flooding.


It seems as if people on here, I assume mostly Americans, forget that people live in other parts of the world. By saying ' far enough south to hopefully just crash into central america' sounds as if they don't care about anyone else other than mainland America, which is a shame. I have seen that sentiment repeated many times in the past in this forum too.
Plenty of peeps in Tampa saying they are glad it went south and thats ok. Lets keep it real and be honest about things. Fyi, just because you want it to go elsewhere doesnt mean you want impacts in that region.
2 likes   

zzzh
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 501
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:13 pm

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3613 Postby zzzh » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:13 pm

 https://twitter.com/realStarInBox/status/1576636054257676288



New Cansips is out. Looks like a suppressed ITCZ and lack of CAG this October. The above average precipitation in the Caribbean is likely from the current disturbance in the MDR. Also, does anyone have Cansips 200U anomaly map? The Cansips model on TT is not updating
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3614 Postby skyline385 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:03 am

Latest extended 45-day EPS looks poor for October

Image

For comparison, this was the extended version 20 days ago

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3615 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:36 am

skyline385 wrote:Latest extended 45-day EPS looks poor for October

https://i.imgur.com/gxfutK1.png

For comparison, this was the extended version 20 days ago

https://i.imgur.com/NkCe0wa.png


ST jet is strong now across Florida and Conus the season could be over for the United States. Caribbean will still be open for business though. We shall see
2 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3616 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:36 am

skyline385 wrote:Latest extended 45-day EPS looks poor for October

https://i.imgur.com/gxfutK1.png

For comparison, this was the extended version 20 days ago

https://i.imgur.com/NkCe0wa.png


The Euro weeklies (out 45 days) from 20 days ago incorporated a period that went on to produce 5 TCs for the rest of September and one of the most active second half of Septembers on record. In contrast, the upcoming 45 days is incorporating a much less active period per climo, especially after the next two 2.5 weeks and with only 91L and 92L being explicitly modeled. So, this big tick down is totally expected. Nevertheless, 91L, alone looks to keep things busy for as long as the next two weeks. Furthermore, these weeklies/extended EPS you showed from yesterday at 0Z have gotten much more active with 91L. Had there been a weeklies run from this morning, 91L, alone, would have made it look more active.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3617 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:46 pm

skyline385 wrote:Latest extended 45-day EPS looks poor for October

https://i.imgur.com/gxfutK1.png

For comparison, this was the extended version 20 days ago

https://i.imgur.com/NkCe0wa.png


I remember one from late August which showed almost nothing through early October
4 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3618 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:37 am

Hammy wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Latest extended 45-day EPS looks poor for October

https://i.imgur.com/gxfutK1.png

For comparison, this was the extended version 20 days ago

https://i.imgur.com/NkCe0wa.png


I remember one from late August which showed almost nothing through early October


Well, now we know what kinds of CFS runs to disregard in future hurricane seasons for sure :lol:
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
CFLHurricane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 311
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:56 pm
Location: Floriduh

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3619 Postby CFLHurricane » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:59 am

SFLcane wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Latest extended 45-day EPS looks poor for October

https://i.imgur.com/gxfutK1.png

For comparison, this was the extended version 20 days ago

https://i.imgur.com/NkCe0wa.png


ST jet is strong now across Florida and Conus the season could be over for the United States. Caribbean will still be open for business though. We shall see


I, too, am increasingly convinced hurricane season has come to an early end for CONUS. All the ensembles that used to show activity are now silent for areas north of the Caribbean, and the low humidity in Florida is a harbinger of season’s end.
2 likes   
I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3620 Postby toad strangler » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:09 am

CFLHurricane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Latest extended 45-day EPS looks poor for October

https://i.imgur.com/gxfutK1.png

For comparison, this was the extended version 20 days ago

https://i.imgur.com/NkCe0wa.png


ST jet is strong now across Florida and Conus the season could be over for the United States. Caribbean will still be open for business though. We shall see


I, too, am increasingly convinced hurricane season has come to an early end for CONUS. All the ensembles that used to show activity are now silent for areas north of the Caribbean, and the low humidity in Florida is a harbinger of season’s end.


It kinda feels like the same situation as when Wilma shut it down coming from the same general region. Wilma ushered in much cooler air and ended the rainy season and hurricane season in one shot for the FL peninsula. Ian of course was nearly 4 weeks earlier than Wilma. But it feels similar.
4 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Dougiefresh, Google [Bot], pepecool20 and 46 guests