2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 847
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3661 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:08 am

With Martin having an eye and forecast to become a hurricane today, these two days of November will have had as many hurricanes develop as during the entire 2013 season :lol:
7 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3662 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:09 am

weeniepatrol wrote:With Martin having an eye and forecast to become a hurricane today, these two days of November will have had as many hurricanes develop as during the entire 2013 season :lol:


2 simultaneous hurricanes in November is something not even the ferocious 2020 season featured.
5 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1764
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3663 Postby kevin » Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:12 am

weeniepatrol wrote:With Martin having an eye and forecast to become a hurricane today, these two days of November will have had as many hurricanes develop as during the entire 2013 season :lol:


2022 might be the first season to have more hurricanes in November than in August and October combined.
0 likes   

User avatar
WiscoWx02
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 340
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:09 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3664 Postby WiscoWx02 » Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:26 am

Has there ever been 2 hurricane designations in one day in November before?

I’m guessing there has been but just want to make sure.
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3665 Postby LarryWx » Wed Nov 02, 2022 11:34 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:Has there ever been 2 hurricane designations in one day in November before?

I’m guessing there has been but just want to make sure.


No, there actually have not. So, 11/2/2022 is the first day on record with two H designations on the same day in November.

There have been only two other years on record with two simultaneous hurricanes in November: 1932 and 2001. But 2001's/1932's November hurricanes were designated three/four days apart.

The latest date for two simultaneous hurricanes on record is November 10th, set in 1932. Next latest is November 5th, set in 2001.
7 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3666 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:51 pm

So what is the record for most storms forming in November? Only at 1 at the moment but we will likely get two more in the next couple days. In addition to potential future Caribbean development next week, that might be 4 storms then!
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

zzzh
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 501
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:13 pm

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3667 Postby zzzh » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:01 pm

kevin wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:With Martin having an eye and forecast to become a hurricane today, these two days of November will have had as many hurricanes develop as during the entire 2013 season :lol:


2022 might be the first season to have more hurricanes in November than in August and October combined.

1994
0 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1764
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3668 Postby kevin » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:10 pm

galaxy401 wrote:So what is the record for most storms forming in November? Only at 1 at the moment but we will likely get two more in the next couple days. In addition to potential future Caribbean development next week, that might be 4 storms then!


The current record is 3, held by multiple years (including 2020). It might be a bit premature since we're only at 1 now, but I agree that at the very least a tie of 3 named storms seems reasonable looking at the invests.
0 likes   

User avatar
FireRat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1138
Age: 36
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3669 Postby FireRat » Sun Nov 06, 2022 1:35 am

kevin wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:So what is the record for most storms forming in November? Only at 1 at the moment but we will likely get two more in the next couple days. In addition to potential future Caribbean development next week, that might be 4 storms then!


The current record is 3, held by multiple years (including 2020). It might be a bit premature since we're only at 1 now, but I agree that at the very least a tie of 3 named storms seems reasonable looking at the invests.
0 likes   
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22

User avatar
FireRat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1138
Age: 36
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3670 Postby FireRat » Sun Nov 06, 2022 1:37 am

kevin wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:So what is the record for most storms forming in November? Only at 1 at the moment but we will likely get two more in the next couple days. In addition to potential future Caribbean development next week, that might be 4 storms then!


The current record is 3, held by multiple years (including 2020). It might be a bit premature since we're only at 1 now, but I agree that at the very least a tie of 3 named storms seems reasonable looking at the invests.


Seriously looking like the November record could be threatened big time this year, wow. Assuming the 2 tomatoes get the names Nicole and Owen in the next few days, thay would put us at 3 already! (and had Lisa formed just a day later, 4). Chances are that we could get even more named storms deeper into November... and in my honest opinion in a year like this, Late November could also have activity... so perhaps 4+ is not out of the question, now that would be something! :lol:

It is amazing how busy this month is behaving, almost like it were October instead.
3 likes   
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3671 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Nov 06, 2022 4:36 pm

Never rule out a conus impact until the season ends. Ian may not be the last Conus hurricane this year, maybe not even the last major.
3 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3672 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2022 2:10 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1764
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3673 Postby kevin » Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:49 am

I think we got lucky the switch flipped so late this season. Had it flipped in August like in 2021 (which had 6/3/2 in August) we could've been looking at a storm count of 20NS/10H/4MH by now.
4 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3674 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 10, 2022 1:34 pm

2022 season so far has 14/8/2. The only category that is above average is hurricanes and ACE is still below 100 which is below average.

Image

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1590773362649092096


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 876
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3675 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Nov 10, 2022 1:40 pm

Is it possible that there is another TS/Hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic? or will Nicole be the last breath of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
0 likes   
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
Sorry for the bad English sometimes!!!

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3676 Postby LarryWx » Thu Nov 10, 2022 2:20 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:Is it possible that there is another TS/Hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic? or will Nicole be the last breath of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?


Nobody knows, of course, though the odds this late with nothing looking threatening on the models currently are not high. But what we already do know is that 2022 is the 10th La Niña season in a row with at least one tropical cyclone having significant very late in the season (late October-November) western basin land impacts (going back to 2005). This year, we've already had two (Lisa and Nicole). The only other one since 2005 having two or more was 2020, which had three (Zeta, Eta, and Iota).
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3677 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Nov 10, 2022 4:41 pm

Even during the season cancel screaming back in August and early September, I had a suspicion that the anomalous warm ocean waters would eventually yield at least one nasty, powerful hurricane later in the season. All of that latent fuel + the Nina imho meant that something had to happen.

Fiona and Ian unfortunately proved just that.

There's no way of knowing what this season will do later this month or how it will end, but even if its ACE ends up being below average, the damage has already been done, and this season will be remembered in particular as the season that brought these two terrifying storms:

Image

Image
6 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3678 Postby LarryWx » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:12 am



I agree with you 100% on Fiona and Ian although I'd also include Nicole as very much being a part of vivid memories of 2022 due to it being the first November hurricane to hit the CONUS since 1985 and the first to hit the east coast of FL since 1935 in addition to its widespread effects.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3679 Postby Hammy » Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:44 am

cycloneye wrote:2022 season so far has 14/8/2. The only category that is above average is hurricanes and ACE is still below 100 which is below average.

https://i.imgur.com/xWlwn5H.jpg

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1590773362649092096


ACE is near-normal based on NOAA's definition, which is the official metric
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 533
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3680 Postby jconsor » Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:31 pm

Regarding the performance of seasonal hurricane outlooks and 2022's "low bust" vs NOAA's seasonal outlook, I found this blog interesting:

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/202 ... ook-skill/

cycloneye wrote:2022 season so far has 14/8/2. The only category that is above average is hurricanes and ACE is still below 100 which is below average.

https://i.imgur.com/xWlwn5H.jpg

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1590773362649092096
8 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jconsor and 36 guests