2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

One concern in my opinion is that we have the EURO + UKMET showing a strong +NAO this summer which could be a problem. +NAO = stronger ridging

[skyline385]

Got some crazy winds here today in SFL, its been 20-25 MPH throughout the day. The MDR could sure use some of these...

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drssta.png

MDR continues to warm

[jasons2k]

I was looking at the STT anomaly charts today and the GOM is well above normal now. The 30-day trend shows it warning even more and more too.

Looks like a very busy season ahead...

[zzh]

I was looking at the STT anomaly charts today and the GOM is well above normal now. The 30-day trend shows it warning even more and more too.

Looks like a very busy season ahead...

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1524189391547256839



Gulf SSTA has little correlation with season

[Cpv17]

The only thing 95% of y’all care about is the MDR. Most storms struggle there till late September. Season doesn’t really get going there till then.

[Blown Away]

2022 1.08 1.68 0.77 -0.36

NAO turned negative for April.

[SFLcane]

Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.

How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?







Link: https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE

[cycloneye]

Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.

How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

https://i.postimg.cc/qMgM9gPP/high.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/HxLfV89H/high2.jpg

https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE

Analog 1956, year when came to this world on 8/11/56 and Betsy moved over PR one day later.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the upcoming MDR trade surge will only last about a week or so, before the westerlies resume. You can see around the May 21st timeframe, where a wall of westerlies look to expand ever so slightly westward

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1524862626974646304

[NotSparta]

The only thing 95% of y’all care about is the MDR. Most storms struggle there till late September. Season doesn’t really get going there till then.

This is the seasonal indicators thread, so of course there will be focus on something that is typically a relatively strong seasonal indicator, especially when it is out of step with many of the others

[Cpv17]

The only thing 95% of y’all care about is the MDR. Most storms struggle there till late September. Season doesn’t really get going there till then.

This is the seasonal indicators thread, so of course there will be focus on something that is typically a relatively strong seasonal indicator, especially when it is out of step with many of the others

A lot of people on here care about ACE. And how do you get a lot of ACE? By something forming in the MDR. I don’t even know why they call it the MDR? Storms for years now have mainly struggled in that area. The hotspots have been the western Caribbean, Gulf/BOC, the area around the Bahamas, and a lot of the western/central Atlantic.

[skyline385]

The only thing 95% of y’all care about is the MDR. Most storms struggle there till late September. Season doesn’t really get going there till then.

This is the seasonal indicators thread, so of course there will be focus on something that is typically a relatively strong seasonal indicator, especially when it is out of step with many of the others

A lot of people on here care about ACE. And how do you get a lot of ACE? By something forming in the MDR. I don’t even know why they call it the MDR? Storms for years now have mainly struggled in that area. The hotspots have been the western Caribbean, Gulf/BOC, the area around the Bahamas, and a lot of the western/central Atlantic.

Think this post answers your question very well

I was looking at the STT anomaly charts today and the GOM is well above normal now. The 30-day trend shows it warning even more and more too.

Looks like a very busy season ahead...

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1524189391547256839




Gulf SSTA has little correlation with season

[zzh]

The only thing 95% of y’all care about is the MDR. Most storms struggle there till late September. Season doesn’t really get going there till then.

This is the seasonal indicators thread, so of course there will be focus on something that is typically a relatively strong seasonal indicator, especially when it is out of step with many of the others

A lot of people on here care about ACE. And how do you get a lot of ACE? By something forming in the MDR. I don’t even know why they call it the MDR? Storms for years now have mainly struggled in that area. The hotspots have been the western Caribbean, Gulf/BOC, the area around the Bahamas, and a lot of the western/central Atlantic.

It is called MDR because of climatology. About 70% of Atlantic TCs pass through the MDR at some point in their life. Subtropical warm pool makes storms struggle there in recent years.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1525096924738686976

[cycloneye]

160 ACE is the goal.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1525107084848680960




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1525123425911681025

[toad strangler]

Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.

How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

https://i.postimg.cc/qMgM9gPP/high.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/HxLfV89H/high2.jpg

https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE

This guy is another one who mis reads the NOAA return rate maps as landfalls when in actuality they represent the return of a storms center within 50 nautical miles of a location. Huge difference.

[SFLcane]

Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.

How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

https://i.postimg.cc/qMgM9gPP/high.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/HxLfV89H/high2.jpg

https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE

This guy is another one who mis reads the NOAA return rate maps as landfalls when in actuality they represent the return of a storms center within 50 nautical miles of a location. Huge difference.

Return rates? What is that? South Florida does not follow that at all as of late infact last time the eastcoast saw a big hurricane was i can't even remember maybe 2 decades ago. I for one think something large scale has changed maybe climate change which allows us to continue dodging storms on a yearly bases. We surely are not the hurricane capitol anymore. Who knows anymore

[tolakram]

Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.

How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

https://i.postimg.cc/qMgM9gPP/high.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/HxLfV89H/high2.jpg

https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE

This guy is another one who mis reads the NOAA return rate maps as landfalls when in actuality they represent the return of a storms center within 50 nautical miles of a location. Huge difference.

Return rates? What is that? South Florida does not follow that at all as of late infact last time the eastcoast saw a big hurricane was i can't even remember maybe 2 decades ago. I for one think something large scale has changed maybe climate change which allows us to continue dodging storms on a yearly bases. We surely are not the hurricane capitol anymore. Who knows anymore

Those return rates include hurricanes that never made actual landfall. They always have. If they were close enough NOAA considers them to be impacts. It's that same criteria that makes Florida the 'hurricane capital'.