2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

it could be just a Pacific MJO in terms with of the Atlantic tutt. Way to early to know

[SFLcane]

A TUTT has managed to find a way to form during peak season for the last two years despite otherwise favorable forecasts for ASO, so I see no reason for one not to pop in and cause at least one inactive phase. It’s unclear if 2022 will have the same wild swings in activity levels as 2021, though.

I do not imagine a TUTT being that much of a hindrance. Despite the TUTT seen in 2020, it still managed to produce 5 late-season major hurricanes (Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iota), and the TUTT was not what caused 2021 to have such a pathetic late season; it was the Atlantic Nino.

This TUTT would be a hindrance to any AEW in the Western MDR or the Caribbean unless it it is recurving out to sea and seeing how August is prime time for the former, it very likely will be affecting activity.

This is not supported by most climate models which all have a very wet Caribbean. Way to early to know

[skyline385]

I do not imagine a TUTT being that much of a hindrance. Despite the TUTT seen in 2020, it still managed to produce 5 late-season major hurricanes (Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iota), and the TUTT was not what caused 2021 to have such a pathetic late season; it was the Atlantic Nino.

This TUTT would be a hindrance to any AEW in the Western MDR or the Caribbean unless it it is recurving out to sea and seeing how August is prime time for the former, it very likely will be affecting activity.

This is not supported by most climate models which all have a very wet Caribbean. Way to early to know

Talking about August here, got October/November for Caribbean activity. This supports the C3S ensemble plots which had precipitation out to sea off the east coast.

[Category5Kaiju]

There’s a big caveat I’d like to point out here; in 2020 and 2021, iirc, the TUTTs that formed during those two years were typhoon-enhanced, but this year seems to be unlike the last two in how it is predicted to have more sinking motion over the EPAC during peak season. I specifically recall Eric Webb saying how that reduction in competition could really boost Atlantic activity theoretically speaking. If the Pacific is as inactive as it is predicted to be, then wouldn’t it be plausible to say that typhoon-enhanced TUTTs may not be as major of an issue this year as they were the past two years?

[Category5Kaiju]

it could be just a Pacific MJO in terms with of the Atlantic tutt. Way to early to know

Yeah I agree with your statement. I feel it’s also too early to tell if this is just some temporary pattern or a reoccurrence. Given the forecast, I am willing to bank on it being the former, if it even pans out that is.

[NotSparta]

A TUTT has managed to find a way to form during peak season for the last two years despite otherwise favorable forecasts for ASO, so I see no reason for one not to pop in and cause at least one inactive phase. It’s unclear if 2022 will have the same wild swings in activity levels as 2021, though.

I do not imagine a TUTT being that much of a hindrance. Despite the TUTT seen in 2020, it still managed to produce 5 late-season major hurricanes (Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iota), and the TUTT was not what caused 2021 to have such a pathetic late season; it was the Atlantic Nino.

This TUTT would be a hindrance to any AEW in the Western MDR or the Caribbean unless it it is recurving out to sea and seeing how August is prime time for the former, it very likely will be affecting activity.

Look at the plot again, it only really shows the TUTT for the Central Caribbean. That area around the NE Caribbean where the TUTT usually is actually has anomalous ridging for late July if the model is right. It wouldn't have much of any effect on Western MDR waves although it could start shearing weaker storms in the Caribbean

[SFLcane]

New ECMWF plot will be out on July 13th. Potential tracks are coming from the caribbean into the Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

And here we go with the TUTT again

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1537605333501231105

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1537606511198932994

I would like to here "wxman57's" take on this potential TUTT.

[SFLcane]

.

[Iceresistance]

CFS weeklies on tidbits is primed with favorable Caribbean upper level winds into most of July.

https://i.postimg.cc/J4D49DBs/gg.png

May get a system in the Caribbean in July, but we can't precisely predict one month in advance. But we can generally predict the pattern that is expected in a given month.

[Teban54]

A TUTT has managed to find a way to form during peak season for the last two years despite otherwise favorable forecasts for ASO, so I see no reason for one not to pop in and cause at least one inactive phase. It’s unclear if 2022 will have the same wild swings in activity levels as 2021, though.

I do not imagine a TUTT being that much of a hindrance. Despite the TUTT seen in 2020, it still managed to produce 5 late-season major hurricanes (Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iota), and the TUTT was not what caused 2021 to have such a pathetic late season; it was the Atlantic Nino.

This TUTT would be a hindrance to any AEW in the Western MDR or the Caribbean unless it it is recurving out to sea and seeing how August is prime time for the former, it very likely will be affecting activity.

I thought the tweets you posted only showed a potential TUTT in late July? How would it last all the way until late August, when the real peak season begins?

[captainbarbossa19]

I do not imagine a TUTT being that much of a hindrance. Despite the TUTT seen in 2020, it still managed to produce 5 late-season major hurricanes (Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iota), and the TUTT was not what caused 2021 to have such a pathetic late season; it was the Atlantic Nino.

This TUTT would be a hindrance to any AEW in the Western MDR or the Caribbean unless it it is recurving out to sea and seeing how August is prime time for the former, it very likely will be affecting activity.

I thought the tweets you posted only showed a potential TUTT in late July? How would it last all the way until late August, when the real peak season begins?

I seem to recall 2017 having a problem with TUTTs too. However, it was right before peak season and then we had Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria etc.

[Category5Kaiju]

Seems like with last year and 2020, the strong TUTT idea has become more widely talked about in the wx community as it pertains to deep season activity. However, that then begs the question, did pre-2012 MDR-heavy years such as 1995, 1999, 2003, 2004, or 2010 feature TUTTs as well?

[Kingarabian]

There's a TUTT pretty much every year. Comes down to TC positioning where it may aid or it may inhibit.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1537873828306636801

[weeniepatrol]

Here we go.

[skyline385]

Also, lots of Nino 3.4 - 4 cooling coming up

[Hammy]

Seems like with last year and 2020, the strong TUTT idea has become more widely talked about in the wx community as it pertains to deep season activity. However, that then begs the question, did pre-2012 MDR-heavy years such as 1995, 1999, 2003, 2004, or 2010 feature TUTTs as well?

The TUTT is a semi-permanent feature so it's present in every season, and seems most prominent in the vicinity of 60W (notice a lot of storms taken out by shear tend to dissipate between 55-65.)

As for strength, 2000/01 were two active seasons that I remember it being exceptionally strong and had several systems that developed or were on the verge of developing essentially decapitated.

[toad strangler]

Seems like with last year and 2020, the strong TUTT idea has become more widely talked about in the wx community as it pertains to deep season activity. However, that then begs the question, did pre-2012 MDR-heavy years such as 1995, 1999, 2003, 2004, or 2010 feature TUTTs as well?

The TUTT is a semi-permanent feature so it's present in every season, and seems most prominent in the vicinity of 60W (notice a lot of storms taken out by shear tend to dissipate between 55-65.)

As for strength, 2000/01 were two active seasons that I remember it being exceptionally strong and had several systems that developed or were on the verge of developing essentially decapitated.

Is the forum transitioning from historic SAL & SST handwringing to TUTT hand wringing?

Seriously though, wasn't Irma AIDED by the 2017 TUTT with her being to the SW of it?

[Category5Kaiju]

Seems like with last year and 2020, the strong TUTT idea has become more widely talked about in the wx community as it pertains to deep season activity. However, that then begs the question, did pre-2012 MDR-heavy years such as 1995, 1999, 2003, 2004, or 2010 feature TUTTs as well?

The TUTT is a semi-permanent feature so it's present in every season, and seems most prominent in the vicinity of 60W (notice a lot of storms taken out by shear tend to dissipate between 55-65.)

As for strength, 2000/01 were two active seasons that I remember it being exceptionally strong and had several systems that developed or were on the verge of developing essentially decapitated.

Is the forum transitioning from historic SAL & SST handwringing to TUTT hand wringing?

Seriously though, wasn't Irma AIDED by the 2017 TUTT with her being to the SW of it?

That's what I thought too...seems like there's a prevailing consensus though that TUTT definitively = shear and making a season not perform up to what it could.

Although iirc, especially with Irma, that was living proof of how TUTTs are not always bad for a particular storm, I think mainly if they are oriented correctly and if the storm is strong enough