2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1281 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:06 pm

Interesting snippet from NWS Key West discussion this evening at 921 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022:

An interesting side note. June averaged daily temperatures have
been running over 2 degrees F below normal. Of course, PTC one
traversed the Keys earlier in the month, but temps have been below
normal so far even taking that into account. The reason?
Convection and cloud cover have been more abundant so far than a
typical June, mainly because the typical June pattern of the
western Atlantic ridge building over the Peninsula has not taken
place in earnest. Migratory troughs along the Eastern Seaboard
have helped keep the axis of the Atlantic shunted south and east
of the Keys.
Of course, there are a few weeks of June left, but
the extended model guidance still does not show the ridge building
into a more climatological position


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Wonder if this is an indicator in any way of the steering pattern for when Cape Verde season starts.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1282 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:Interesting snippet from NWS Key West discussion this evening at 921 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022:

An interesting side note. June averaged daily temperatures have
been running over 2 degrees F below normal. Of course, PTC one
traversed the Keys earlier in the month, but temps have been below
normal so far even taking that into account. The reason?
Convection and cloud cover have been more abundant so far than a
typical June, mainly because the typical June pattern of the
western Atlantic ridge building over the Peninsula has not taken
place in earnest. Migratory troughs along the Eastern Seaboard
have helped keep the axis of the Atlantic shunted south and east
of the Keys.
Of course, there are a few weeks of June left, but
the extended model guidance still does not show the ridge building
into a more climatological position


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Wonder if this is an indicator in any way of the steering pattern for when Cape Verde season starts.


Webb posted this little analysis of the C3S ensembles where he talks about the ridge being further out this year.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536875899118755840


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1283 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:35 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:That wave that just came off doesn't have a lot of convection, but there is a definite low level spin in the clouds. If it starts popping some convection in the next couple of days the only thing holding it back would be the large envelope

Yeah but no convection will pop off with it. Even near peak season these waves struggle to produce convection after moving off the African coast. Too much dry, stable air.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1284 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:04 am

Here is the MIMIC-TPW showing some juiced atmosphere with area of low pressure near Cabo Verde Islands not analized as a wave yet. That helps to reduce the SAL.

Image

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1285 Postby kevin » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:55 am

In the last 12 days the Atlantic has become increasingly favorable for hurricane formation. As far as I know this map is (mostly) based on temperature so shear will most likely still limit formation of strong hurricanes for a while. But the evolution towards a more favorable basin is clear. The warming is most evident in the GOM and the MDR.

June 8

Image

June 20

Image
Last edited by kevin on Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1286 Postby kevin » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:58 am

Also here's a comparison with the hurricane potential on June 22, 2020.

June 22, 2020

Image

June 20, 2022

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1287 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:06 am

kevin wrote:In the last 12 days the Atlantic has become increasinly favorable for hurricane formation. As far as I know this map is (mostly) based on temperature so shear will most likely still limit formation of strong hurricanes for a while. But the evolution towards a more favorable basin is clear. The warming is most evident in the GOM and the MDR.

June 8

https://i.imgur.com/vTfXkr5.png

June 20

https://i.imgur.com/r97luKt.png


The ocean is warming during June, more at 11
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1288 Postby kevin » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:11 am

NotSparta wrote:
kevin wrote:In the last 12 days the Atlantic has become increasinly favorable for hurricane formation. As far as I know this map is (mostly) based on temperature so shear will most likely still limit formation of strong hurricanes for a while. But the evolution towards a more favorable basin is clear. The warming is most evident in the GOM and the MDR.

June 8

https://i.imgur.com/vTfXkr5.png

June 20

https://i.imgur.com/r97luKt.png


The ocean is warming during June, more at 11


Haha I get what you mean :lol: , I know warming of the oceans during June is the same as saying that water is wet. It's more about the speed at which it happening (or at least seems to be happening in these MPI images) compared to previous years. I guess the image from 2020 in the post afterwards is a bit better to put it into context.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1289 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:37 am

While the Gulf SST are highly variable and not directly related to seasonal ACE, we seem to be running much ahead of previous seasons (including 2020 & 2005) because of the heat. And then there is the strong loop current prevailing this year. Not going to end up pretty for any system entering the Gulf if this continues.

 https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1538886318746480640



Image
Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1290 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:07 pm

skyline385 wrote:While the Gulf SST are highly variable and not directly related to seasonal ACE, we seem to be running much ahead of previous seasons (including 2020 & 2005) because of the heat. And then there is the strong loop current prevailing this year. Not going to end up pretty for any system entering the Gulf if this continues.

https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1538886318746480640
https://i.imgur.com/haDyByB.png
https://i.imgur.com/1Kkdfye.png


Ok, this has got to be the most anomalously warm Loop Current recorded since at least 1995. For us to be even ahead of years like 2005 or 2020, I of course hope that nothing later this season comes along and takes advantage of that (shear and dry air aside).
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1291 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:29 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1292 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 21, 2022 8:52 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1293 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 8:59 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1294 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:47 pm

Say what you want but this is quite the impressive wave for mid June.

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1295 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:05 pm

How is SAL and wind shear currently looking?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1296 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:14 am

Image

Ngl, just by purely looking at how it looks, the wave that these models seem keen on looks pretty darn good. As in, if it were September, it looks like what a precursor for a monster hurricane would look like. Now of course, it is still June, and climatology is obviously on our side. However, it is still a bit nerve-wracking to say the least to think that it's only June and we are already seeing some badass waves, which imho is a harbinger of what may come later this season. :cry:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1297 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:34 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/kEbcJXz.png


Yeah, that’s a yikes from me. I already long for the days of 2018-19 when the whole mdr was a moistureless dust-laden graveyard. Strap in every one… I think we are in for a serious ride
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1298 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:36 am

Whatever you do DON’T look at the 0z eps unless you’ve got some fresh boxers to change into!
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1299 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:21 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/kEbcJXz.png


Yeah, that’s a yikes from me. I already long for the days of 2018-19 when the whole mdr was a moistureless dust-laden graveyard. Strap in every one… I think we are in for a serious ride


:eek:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1300 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:36 am

Remember, the African monsoon peaks twice, once in June, and second through classic Cape Verde season, which is from late July to late September. So we do see vigorous waves in June.
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