2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1560308243578118144?s=20&t=F6WfEoKyIy9tK9wOSXrH_g

Telling comming from him.

[aspen]

What is it will all the dry air in the deep tropics this late in August? Actually, what’s up with the NHem being so dry this year? Near-drought to drought conditions across the Northeast, central, and western US, record heat across parts of Europe, and all of this SAL.

[cycloneye]

What is it will all the dry air in the deep tropics this late in August? Actually, what’s up with the NHem being so dry this year? Near-drought to drought conditions across the Northeast, central, and western US, record heat across parts of Europe, and all of this SAL.

Climate Change effects?

[tolakram]

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.

So if we don't see any activity until September then regardless of how much activity we see the season is a bust? What is the evidence that if we don't see activity in August then it probably won't happen? What does bust mean exactly? Is it a knock on hurricane forecasters not being able to predict activity? Is it an amateur temper tantrum over a slower season than the hyped once that was expected?

As I said months ago, the over hyping of this season was only going to lead to one thing, a bunch of nonsense when things don't behave exactly as expected.

I find if really interesting that we still have no idea how many storms we will get this season. My 19/7/4 ACE:135 (Final) prediction is still looking good, though it depends on some short lived majors. We will see.

[skyline385]

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.

1961:

That season ended with 189 ACE, yet only a single storm formed prior to September.

Just saying 1961 is pretty far back and we didn’t have the best tracking systems back then, easy for a few shorties to slip through the count.


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[SFLcane]

This GFS run is something!

Upper level low all the way to the equator

[skyline385]

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.

So if we don't see any activity until September then regardless of how much activity we see the season is a bust? What is the evidence that if we don't see activity in August then it probably won't happen? What does bust mean exactly? Is it a knock on hurricane forecasters not being able to predict activity? Is it an amateur temper tantrum over a slower season than the hyped once that was expected?

As I said months ago, the over hyping of this season was only going to lead to one thing, a bunch of nonsense when things don't behave exactly as expected.

I find if really interesting that we still have no idea how many storms we will get this season. My 19/7/4 ACE:135 (Final) prediction is still looking good, though it depends on some short lived majors. We will see.

Yea it was funny how a couple of months back, asking to temper expectations was being called out as being a bear or 2013 season cancel. I agree that there is plenty of time left, my expectation is around 140ish ACE.


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[al78]

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

1961
2018

[SFLcane]

Similar issues to 2013 surely but Not exactly the same. Shear isn't as bad but dry air is worse. Hate to say it but september could face similar issues. Potentially we get some recurvers that develop in the subtropics.

I think a ridiculously quiet year is definitely on the table now.

[Teban54]

Similar issues to 2013 surely but Not exactly the same. Shear isn't as bad but dry air is worse. Hate to say it but september could face similar issues. Potentially we get some recurvers that develop in the subtropics.

I think a ridiculously quiet year is definitely on the table now.

Calm down dude. GFS dropping a model storm isn't the end of the world lol.

[ElectricStorm]

Wow lots of doom and gloom in here considering we're still just barely halfway through August. It's never a good idea to start calling for a busted season based on 384 hour GFS runs Besides, models struggle with many storms every year and it looks to me like some people on here are taking these long range runs as gospel...

Personally I think that the current gulf AOI certainly has potential to develop, plus there's the next potential gulf system next week that could be dangerous. Not to mention the MDR wave needs to be watched for development further west as well. Still lots of areas to watch despite individual model runs fluctuating.

[SFLcane]

Similar issues to 2013 surely but Not exactly the same. Shear isn't as bad but dry air is worse. Hate to say it but september could face similar issues. Potentially we get some recurvers that develop in the subtropics.

I think a ridiculously quiet year is definitely on the table now.

Calm down dude. GFS dropping a model storm isn't the end of the world lol.

We are not talking about one GFS run lol my point was if the hostile thermo cannot be resolved in late Aug with peak mjo forcing i dont see it turning around in september. We will see

[aspen]

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.

So if we don't see any activity until September then regardless of how much activity we see the season is a bust? What is the evidence that if we don't see activity in August then it probably won't happen? What does bust mean exactly? Is it a knock on hurricane forecasters not being able to predict activity? Is it an amateur temper tantrum over a slower season than the hyped once that was expected?

As I said months ago, the over hyping of this season was only going to lead to one thing, a bunch of nonsense when things don't behave exactly as expected.

I find if really interesting that we still have no idea how many storms we will get this season. My 19/7/4 ACE:135 (Final) prediction is still looking good, though it depends on some short lived majors. We will see.

Probably should’ve clarified things some more: a bust would be if this season ends up near to below average, like 10-14 NS and a max of ~100 ACE. Compared to most official forecast numbers (except for UA), that would count as a bust. And I’m not saying that zero storms in August means nothing for the rest of the season. Late August is usually when activity and climo finally ramps up, so if only one post-Colin storm has formed by September 1st, nothing else is about to form, and the models have continued to push back any possible MDR development like they’ve done for the last few weeks, then it’s a very strong signal that activity for the rest of the peak season will be far lower than expected. Unless 2022 is an anomaly and has a peak far later than most other seasons.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1560197251787522048




Why are we not factoring September through November? 2017 had a slow August until the later part of the month when Harvey regenerated in the GoM

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1560197251787522048?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Why are we not factoring September through November? 2017 had a slow August until the later part of the month when Harvey regenerated in the GoM

I'm going to just say it. People calling for a crazy hyperactive season are just as bad as season bust posts.

For now, I'm going to just say that the SAl push to me is at least interesting as it sets up another week at least of hindering development. Beyond that?

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1560197251787522048?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Why are we not factoring September through November? 2017 had a slow August until the later part of the month when Harvey regenerated in the GoM

Bell ringing (THE BEGINING) is still 48 hours away. Lot's of hand wringing going on for no real reason IMO.
Every season is going to be different. The slow ones, the average ones, and the active ones.

The table is set for an active season in the end per the indicators we have been talking about for months it seems. SAL, dry air, wave breaking, etc are all fluff IMO to talk about in the slow times but once the switch flies and the MEAT arrives, no more fluff.

[Steve]

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.

So if we don't see any activity until September then regardless of how much activity we see the season is a bust? What is the evidence that if we don't see activity in August then it probably won't happen? What does bust mean exactly? Is it a knock on hurricane forecasters not being able to predict activity? Is it an amateur temper tantrum over a slower season than the hyped once that was expected?

As I said months ago, the over hyping of this season was only going to lead to one thing, a bunch of nonsense when things don't behave exactly as expected.

I find if really interesting that we still have no idea how many storms we will get this season. My 19/7/4 ACE:135 (Final) prediction is still looking good, though it depends on some short lived majors. We will see.

100. aspen is a quality poster, so this is not an indictment of them. But I gotta ask...

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.

A bust of what though - a forum and weather community groupthink idea of what the future season was going to be? A season is whatever it is. A forecast might bust, but I don't see how a season could. But I also don't think the next 10 days make or break anything. They'll be the next 10 days. Maybe we get a named storm or two, maybe we won't. Nothing but tallies will be affected.

Edit - nevermind. You answered before I hit submit

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1560197251787522048?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Why are we not factoring September through November? 2017 had a slow August until the later part of the month when Harvey regenerated in the GoM

Yeah. Having those inhibiting anomalies right there in the EPAC indicates favorability for the Atlantic.

[WiscoWx02]

I think out next best and only legit bet for development for the rest of August at this point is that area entering the BOC. Forget Africa honestly…Andy Hazelton and others are making it quite clear that at this point no favorable MJO is going to save chances of much happening out there on WxTwitter due to dry air and wave breaking and he’s usually pretty logical and good at what he does. I don’t really see these issues going away in September but October maybe/likely isn’t a lost cause…after 2020, 2018…I’ll never trust October again

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1560197251787522048?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Why are we not factoring September through November? 2017 had a slow August until the later part of the month when Harvey regenerated in the GoM

August 2017 had two hurricanes, including one that was close to being a major, before Harvey’s first genesis. It was quite an active August all things considered, nothing like what this August has been like.