2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#21 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:19 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png

Whatever happens going forward this year, all I will say is that so far, the Atlantic's +sst anomalies have really hit the ground running.

The main difference is that the Atlantic southwest of Iceland is far warmer than it has been on the same date in recent years:

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

Based on this, the AMO currently seems to be more + than it has been in recent years since 2016. But I expect that to reverse itself.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:45 am

:uarrow: Recent -NAO probably helping here.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#23 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:51 am

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Recent -NAO probably helping here.

...which is why I expect the AMO to crash as soon as the NAO returns to a positive state. If not for the -NAO the AMO would be similar to that of the other years.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#24 Postby aspen » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:02 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png

Whatever happens going forward this year, all I will say is that so far, the Atlantic's +sst anomalies have really hit the ground running.

The main difference is that the Atlantic southwest of Iceland is far warmer than it has been on the same date in recent years:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1_op/image/daily/ssta/png/2021/01/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20210111.png
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1_op/image/daily/ssta/png/2020/01/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20200111.png
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1_op/image/daily/ssta/png/2019/01/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20190111.png
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1_op/image/daily/ssta/png/2018/01/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20180111.png
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1_op/image/daily/ssta/png/2017/01/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20170111.png
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1_op/image/daily/ssta/png/2016/01/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20160111.png

Based on this, the AMO currently seems to be more + than it has been in recent years since 2016. But I expect that to reverse itself.

The NE Atlantic SSTAs look the most similar to this time in 2018 and 2019 — mainly warm just south of Iceland with only a few small -SSTA pockets — which were also both weak +ENSO years. We’ll have to wait and see how the AMO, NAO, and ENSO states progress as we near the spring barrier, but perhaps we could see another 2018/19-like season:
—Around 15-17 NS
—Around 120-140 ACE, possibly less
—Lots of activity in the subtropics
—No more than 1 MH east of 60W and south of 20N
—No more than 3 or 4 total majors
—A weak +ENSO that keeps activity to a minimum until the last week or two of August
—No significant Caribbean activity
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#25 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:37 am

Something I just thought of recently, but maybe it would also be useful if we could look back to historic years that followed Atlantic Nino years and see what their activity was like. Because from what I understand, recent Atlantic Nino years include 2016 and 2019 (not nearly as strong as 2021 though), and the following years seemed to have high levels of activity.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#26 Postby Steve » Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:28 pm

Hey y’all and happy new year. MJO was a key factor for 2021. Last post I recall making was cautioning someone against a season cancel in October. The MJO was headed for 2 by almost all modeling but just didn’t quite get there again. It got close and went a different way, and the season pretty much ended like that. It was a very warm December in SELA, and we’ve still only had 3 or 4 nights in the 30’s/40’s. What I have been noticing is that fronts and troughs coming down from the NW are angling east of here. It’s too early in the winter to know how far they may retrograde with successive pushes of cold. It seems that when the mean troughs back all the way to west Texas that those of us near 90W have to worry about systems coming up. So that’s something to watch as we head into February. Early morning line would be to bet on activity east of here in the NE Gulf and on the SE US Coast. Possibly S TX and NE Mexico as well. So the mean trough position and MJO are among the things I’m following.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#27 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:47 pm

Image

The CanSIPS is showing a very 2018-esque pattern for 2022: the -AMM and +ENSO might make things tough for development this season. The CanSIPS was on the mark with the ENSO and AMM for 2021; it always showed a -ENSO and a neutral AMM. 2022 might actually be less active than 2018 because of the potential for a warmer Nino 3 than 2018. The last seasons we had with a -AMM and a +ENSO since 1995 are 1997, 2002, and 2018. Averaging the season totals gives 11.6 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.6 major hurricanes (i.e. 11-12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes); this is subject to change, but as of January 13, odds look slightly in favor of a season significantly less active than previous seasons.
Last edited by AlphaToOmega on Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#28 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:19 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/vHrL140T/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

The CanSIPS is showing a very 2018-esque pattern for 2022: the -AMM and +ENSO might make things tough for development this season. The CanSIPS was on the mark with the ENSO and AMM for 2021; it always showed a -ENSO and a neutral AMM. 2022 might actually be less active than 2018 because of the potential for a warmer Nino 3 than 2018. The last seasons we had with a -AMM and a +ENSO since 1995 are 1997, 2002, and 2018. Averaging the season totals gives 11.3 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.6 major hurricanes (i.e. 11-12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes); this is subject to change, but as of January 13, odds look slightly in favor of a season significantly less active than previous seasons.


Image

Image

To be fair, assuming the CANSIPS sst anomalies map is correct, then I am personally not really sure how 2018 is similar to 2022 in that regard. Notice how in 2018 there never really was a +AMO pattern, the CANSIPS map shows a more distinct +AMO. Additionally, 2018 struggled with basin-wide warm sst anomalies throughout September, the 2022 prediction for CANSIPS shows anything but that.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#29 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:03 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/vHrL140T/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

The CanSIPS is showing a very 2018-esque pattern for 2022: the -AMM and +ENSO might make things tough for development this season. The CanSIPS was on the mark with the ENSO and AMM for 2021; it always showed a -ENSO and a neutral AMM. 2022 might actually be less active than 2018 because of the potential for a warmer Nino 3 than 2018. The last seasons we had with a -AMM and a +ENSO since 1995 are 1997, 2002, and 2018. Averaging the season totals gives 11.3 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.6 major hurricanes (i.e. 11-12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes); this is subject to change, but as of January 13, odds look slightly in favor of a season significantly less active than previous seasons.

Landfalls might also be harder to come by, if ’22 is more hostile than ’18, given that -AMM/+ENSO tends to induce more TUTTs and subtropical TCs.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#30 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:34 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/vHrL140T/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

The CanSIPS is showing a very 2018-esque pattern for 2022: the -AMM and +ENSO might make things tough for development this season. The CanSIPS was on the mark with the ENSO and AMM for 2021; it always showed a -ENSO and a neutral AMM. 2022 might actually be less active than 2018 because of the potential for a warmer Nino 3 than 2018. The last seasons we had with a -AMM and a +ENSO since 1995 are 1997, 2002, and 2018. Averaging the season totals gives 11.6 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.6 major hurricanes (i.e. 11-12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes); this is subject to change, but as of January 13, odds look slightly in favor of a season significantly less active than previous seasons.


While there is +ENSO here, this is definitely a +AMM
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#31 Postby aspen » Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:38 am

Shell Mound wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/vHrL140T/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

The CanSIPS is showing a very 2018-esque pattern for 2022: the -AMM and +ENSO might make things tough for development this season. The CanSIPS was on the mark with the ENSO and AMM for 2021; it always showed a -ENSO and a neutral AMM. 2022 might actually be less active than 2018 because of the potential for a warmer Nino 3 than 2018. The last seasons we had with a -AMM and a +ENSO since 1995 are 1997, 2002, and 2018. Averaging the season totals gives 11.3 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.6 major hurricanes (i.e. 11-12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes); this is subject to change, but as of January 13, odds look slightly in favor of a season significantly less active than previous seasons.

Landfalls might also be harder to come by, if ’22 is more hostile than ’18, given that -AMM/+ENSO tends to induce more TUTTs and subtropical TCs.

That SST configuration on the CanSIPS also looks ripe for enhanced activity in the subtropics like in 2018.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jan 14, 2022 2:54 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/vHrL140T/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

The CanSIPS is showing a very 2018-esque pattern for 2022: the -AMM and +ENSO might make things tough for development this season. The CanSIPS was on the mark with the ENSO and AMM for 2021; it always showed a -ENSO and a neutral AMM. 2022 might actually be less active than 2018 because of the potential for a warmer Nino 3 than 2018. The last seasons we had with a -AMM and a +ENSO since 1995 are 1997, 2002, and 2018. Averaging the season totals gives 11.6 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.6 major hurricanes (i.e. 11-12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes); this is subject to change, but as of January 13, odds look slightly in favor of a season significantly less active than previous seasons.


2018 had a massive +PMM that fueled the legendary season in the EPAC, which in turn shut down the Caribbean. Not the case in the canSIPS run.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:01 pm

This will be very interesting to follow to see effects from the Tonga Volcano eruption on ENSO and the WAM.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1482407100680605697


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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:59 pm

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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#35 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:37 pm



Yeah, it's a pattern that if we saw a couple of months later I'd be keeping a close eye on. Generally this warm water between Brazil and Africa like this is correlated with active seasons because as the sun lifts north the SSTs do as well. One good example of this is actually 2020, in around February I believe you started getting this sort of pattern and it persisted right into the later parts of spring and was one reason why the MDR ended up so warm. We could very well have this stick around too but I wouldn't count on that. We've seen very many favorable configurations get wiped out by the usual winter +NAO and SST patterns don't usually persist for months on end. Again we shall see what happens in the end but right now it's just a deviation from the winter -AMO and something for us enthusiasts to watch while the global tropics remain mostly dead
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#36 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:00 pm

NotSparta wrote:


Yeah, it's a pattern that if we saw a couple of months later I'd be keeping a close eye on. Generally this warm water between Brazil and Africa like this is correlated with active seasons because as the sun lifts north the SSTs do as well. One good example of this is actually 2020, in around February I believe you started getting this sort of pattern and it persisted right into the later parts of spring and was one reason why the MDR ended up so warm. We could very well have this stick around too but I wouldn't count on that. We've seen very many favorable configurations get wiped out by the usual winter +NAO and SST patterns don't usually persist for months on end. Again we shall see what happens in the end but right now it's just a deviation from the winter -AMO and something for us enthusiasts to watch while the global tropics remain mostly dead


Would you have any idea what recent years had an extremely warm MDR or Atlantic Nino region by January, only for the anomalies to taper off as the year progressed? Because just by looking at the 5 km resolution sst anomaly map, aside from 2020, I'm not personally aware of a past year that had anomalies that matched or exceeded what we are seeing now?
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#37 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:22 pm

Ok, this needs to stop :eek: :lol:

Image
Image
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#38 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:20 am


Reminder: the date is 26 January. With the NAO remaining positive for the foreseeable future, I expect this to reverse sharply over the next several weeks.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#39 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:29 am



Current SSTA patterns mean virtually nothing for 2022. We are still in the 2021-2022 winter, after all.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#40 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:52 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
NotSparta wrote:


Yeah, it's a pattern that if we saw a couple of months later I'd be keeping a close eye on. Generally this warm water between Brazil and Africa like this is correlated with active seasons because as the sun lifts north the SSTs do as well. One good example of this is actually 2020, in around February I believe you started getting this sort of pattern and it persisted right into the later parts of spring and was one reason why the MDR ended up so warm. We could very well have this stick around too but I wouldn't count on that. We've seen very many favorable configurations get wiped out by the usual winter +NAO and SST patterns don't usually persist for months on end. Again we shall see what happens in the end but right now it's just a deviation from the winter -AMO and something for us enthusiasts to watch while the global tropics remain mostly dead


Would you have any idea what recent years had an extremely warm MDR or Atlantic Nino region by January, only for the anomalies to taper off as the year progressed? Because just by looking at the 5 km resolution sst anomaly map, aside from 2020, I'm not personally aware of a past year that had anomalies that matched or exceeded what we are seeing now?


None that I know of, 2019-20 was in a league of its own wrt the Atlantic Niño region. Not as much warmth there right now though. Most of it is north or south given the cooler tongue on the equator
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