2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Deshaunrob17]

https://fb.watch/eRq5dPOW9c/
This was a really good presentation from Phil Klotzbach a couple days ago..

[weeniepatrol]

probably nothing..
https://imgur.com/bw8zoYw

https://imgur.com/S7qb7jP

All I'm saying is.. it's mid August and sfc vorticities like this should probably be monitored

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1558088210252808199

[InfernoFlameCat]

Guys, I’m seeing signs that the Atlantic is awakening. Waves are starting to look healthier coming off Africa.

[Iceresistance]

Something to note here from the CPC


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Global-hazards-outlook.png

[SFLcane]

I think there's a lot of early indications that the steering regime is not going to be the typical EC trough -PDO/Nina for September. Certainly hasn't been typical Nina conditions in the basin since October of last year. Late August into September looks concerning for steering regime given the warming in the NE Pac. Euro monthlies have that too, and Roundy's MJO/LF forcing analogs.

[skyline385]

Something to note here from the CPC


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Global-hazards-outlook.png

That below average rainfall stands out to me, wonder what their reasoning for it is. The MJO should still be in phase 2/3 and the last EPS weekly shows it moving over the MC only around mid September.


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[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1558147444092829696




Thankyou Stu!

[zzh]

It makes sense that 2020 tropical Atlantic had below average THDV with most of the MDR systems struggled that year.

[tolakram]

:uarrow: It makes sense that 2020 tropical Atlantic had below average THDV with most of the MDR systems struggled that year.

It's always below average. Always. Once something is below average for 15 years isn't it time to question the average?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1558147444092829696?s=20&t=BciooqnctBvXX_7DYrtLUg

Thankyou Stu!

I remember back in 2017 at the peak of the season while Irma and pre-Jose were out there it still just barely reached the climo line.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw (since I don't know whether there are strong implications for the tropical Atlantic), the UK and France are in the midst of another heatwave though not nearly as hot as last month's all time record heat. For example, the UK's hottest so far has been ~94 F vs ~104 F last month. But even this 94 F is still 20 F warmer than normal and is hotter than most years' hottest of each year prior to 2015. Plus, the current heatwave started yesterday (8/11) and will continue through Sun (8/14)...so a pretty good length of 4 days. In addition, SW France had a hottest of 106 F! After Sunday, it looks to end. So, even if there are implications for the Atlantic tropics, it will be over before Monday.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: It makes sense that 2020 tropical Atlantic had below average THDV with most of the MDR systems struggled that year.

It's always below average. Always. Once something is below average for 15 years isn't it time to question the average?

I wonder what average climo base they are using? If it is based on temperature, warming from SSTs to the layers of the atmosphere is pretty much a global thing so using a past baseline would definitely not help.

[skyline385]

:uarrow: It makes sense that 2020 tropical Atlantic had below average THDV with most of the MDR systems struggled that year.

It's always below average. Always. Once something is below average for 15 years isn't it time to question the average?

I wonder what average climo base they are using? If it is based on temperature, warming from SSTs to the layers of the atmosphere is pretty much a global thing so using a past baseline would definitely not help.

An update to the Instability graphic is finally incoming. It is also incredible that we have trended below the 25th percentile for July and August, that is something you would expect in a Nino year.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1558205022218895362

[skyline385]

And here's the answer to the climo being used by the original one.

 https://twitter.com/CSlocumWX/status/1558213063425376257

[tolakram]

It's a minor miracle, all it took was someone to note it in a tweet.

[weeniepatrol]

And here's the answer to the climo being used by the original one.

https://twitter.com/CSlocumWX/status/1558213063425376257?s=20&t=VV-cblFO7JKO0w3ceWJnBA

NO WONDER.

[Iceresistance]

CPC Update, it's still there, there must be something going on.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Updated.png

[cycloneye]

The Miami met chims in.

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesTV/status/1558149599940018190

[tolakram]

The Miami met chims in.

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesTV/status/1558149599940018190

384 hour GFS. That's a gutsy call.