2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2721 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 12:29 pm

Five cat 4's in that season (1999). No two seasons are every the same, but for fun.

The year of wrongway Lenny.

#2722 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 12:36 pm

1999 SSTA

skyline385 · #2723 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 12:44 pm

The SST maps for 1999 and 2022 look so different globally (except for the Nino regions), the warm pool in the North is just incredible this year. I am wondering if it’s also partially responsible for the WPAC being quiet so far.

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#2724 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 12:45 pm

For reference here is the nino chart

Ubuntwo · #2725 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:11 pm

Hammy wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:
Hammy wrote:
What is 'concerning' for me is the waves are coming off as far north as they are, close to 20N--where the SSTs are cooler (less than 25C as they gain latitude) and the air is naturally much drier. That in itself is definitely not normal, and as a result they're actually pulling more dust with them, rather than what we normally see where the waves help moisten the atmosphere. They need to start coming off further south before that can occur.

Not by any stretch saying this season is a bust by any stretch but there's something we're missing (and I'm mostly trying to figure out exactly what that is) and things may not get going as soon as most of us were expecting.

Not concerning nor unusual.

https://imgur.com/03QcUgc

Except this doesn't tell even half the story--the low pressure centers usually form and exit south of this line, not even with it. Waves actually exiting Africa near 20N is quite unusual

We have yet to see any high latitude waves. From late July to present the lows have been coming off around 10-13N. Below 10N prior to that. 97L for example came off ~12N with an axis from 5-20N.

They are modeled, though, on most globals. Now through mid August. Looks like one cause is persistent troughiness over north Africa and western Europe, just to throw something out there. I'm sure there are several other factors at play. Such waves are a feature of most seasons at some point or another during ASO when ITCZ latitude is greatest. However models have a stretch of high latitude waves for two weeks or more, that's more uncommon. Strong trades off northwest Africa mean these waves are bringing higher quantities of dry air than usual. The cold canaries current is not the cause of this rather a symptom of the same issue.

At some point or another this setup will give. Models hold off until late August to build in ridging and bring waves back to a lower latitude. It's possible there will be some overlap with high latitude waves and a favorable VP setup across the basin, which would cap the season a little. I don't think a less productive August will preclude above-average activity though, and it's still looking like activity will pick up soon after the climo bell ringing date. Even if there's nothing to watch on models at the moment.

weeniepatrol · #2726 Postby **weeniepatrol** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:24 pm

probably nothing.. :ggreen:

#2727 Postby **toad strangler** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:25 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:probably nothing..
https://imgur.com/bw8zoYw

There's the switch! :wink:

Here's an indicator for yee .... 9 days till Bell Ring

Cachondo23 · #2728 Postby **Cachondo23** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:31 pm

tolakram wrote:Five cat 4's in that season (1999). No two seasons are every the same, but for fun.

https://i.imgur.com/eAkPo65.png

The year of wrongway Lenny.

I would love to see another wrongway Lenny type of hurricane, how rare is that?

#2729 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:13 pm

Another reminder.

https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1557806829144612864

#2730 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:42 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/MezDrMR.gif
https://i.imgur.com/KXbflyC.jpg

Long range, but something to keep an eye on.

GFS for a few runs showing a TW/low starting to develop E of @Barbados, moves near PR, then into Bahamas.

06z ensemble shows W turn in Bahamas towards SFL as a Cat 3/4...

Bears watching.

12z GEFS follow up. Same low in the area, travels over PR, Hispaniola, Cuba and begins to deepen again in FL Straits. Seems conditions may be favorable in the SW Atlantic come late August.

#2731 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:06 pm

A special post for all my 2013 weenies..

https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1557818332476317697

skyline385 · #2732 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:34 pm

Todays weeklies suggest slightly below average activity for end of august and beginning of September but also show the MJO moving to MC by mid September as suggested by CFS and some other models, mid September could end up being slightly quiet with the sinking air over Africa. TS probability plots suggest some out to sea systems for the run.

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#2733 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:04 pm

Models not showing much in the EPAC after 90E.

weeniepatrol · #2734 Postby **weeniepatrol** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:28 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:probably nothing..
https://imgur.com/bw8zoYw

#2735 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:49 pm

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1557833929154916352

#2736 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:16 pm

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1557851486138372098

#2737 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:50 pm

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1557855526603476992

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1557855708472676352

#2738 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:26 pm

18z GFS shows basically nothing in Atl or E Pacific over next 16 days, maybe it’s correct, find it hard That nothing will spin up in both basins during the peak season.

#2739 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:32 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z GFS shows basically nothing in Atl or E Pacific over next 16 days, maybe it’s correct, find it hard That nothing will spin up in both basins during the peak season.

It's a global ACE drought.

aspen · #2740 Postby **aspen** » Thu Aug 11, 2022 8:09 pm

skyline385 wrote:Todays weeklies suggest slightly below average activity for end of august and beginning of September but also show the MJO moving to MC by mid September as suggested by CFS and some other models, mid September could end up being slightly quiet with the sinking air over Africa. TS probability plots suggest some out to sea systems for the run.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220811/c41ba39622ab908a8dd1444d07234076.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220811/d457fbb300745910d15f190ba80cb916.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220811/5b31ed1b9009eca210e31d23c72a27ff.jpg

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This definitely isn’t how 2019 was at this point. Tolkram linked some posts from mid-August ‘19, and there were people talking about the CFS and other long-range models suggesting a major switch flip in late August with multiple named storms in early September. That verified rather well. This year, though, we aren’t seeing any signs of a significant ramp-up — just near to slightly below-average activity forecast in the weeklies with a possible mid-September drought, and the CFS has shown a pretty pathetic September for two runs in a row.