2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1341 Postby zzh » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:24 pm

Image
Just some wave train with 4 waves in June :wink:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1342 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:59 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1343 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:59 pm

Don't know what to say folks, ensure your hurricane plan is ready!
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1344 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:27 am

:double: That sat loop looks like something we'd typically see in late August rather than late June, frightening.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1345 Postby Visioen » Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:15 am

I miss good old season cancel posts
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1346 Postby USTropics » Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:11 am

The western branch of the ITCZ for the second dekad of June (11-20th) has lifted anomalously more north of climo:
Image

I plotted the past 20 years of the region from 15W to 15E, and 2022 is 4th highest (behind 2005, 2012, and 2017):
Image

I made an interactive graph here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQBfIw9qGKG27fVc-VZFBnbfDvkVtIRxU3bEs-sqZ8fv1SbBxeHvHhByLLFDk52jfy8PmAjGPxJGDPV/pubchart?oid=1177492694&format=interactive
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1347 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:50 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1348 Postby IsabelaWeather » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:01 am

weeniepatrol wrote:https://imgur.com/R4844Ij



This is just an astonishing look. Has me very concerned for ASO. I mean it looks like the SWPAC
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1349 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:26 am

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1350 Postby Teban54 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:32 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/7NKJLkC.png

Remember last year when everyone thought it was crazy that Elsa developed?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1351 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:34 am

Has Joe b updated his landfall predictions?

Last time i checked he had Florida,southeast and the islands on high alert.
Last edited by SFLcane on Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1352 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:40 am

USTropics wrote:The western branch of the ITCZ for the second dekad of June (11-20th) has lifted anomalously more north of climo:
https://i.imgur.com/iywT0le.jpg

I plotted the past 20 years of the region from 15W to 15E, and 2022 is 4th highest (behind 2005, 2012, and 2017):
https://i.imgur.com/LQkHJ9u.png

I made an interactive graph here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQBfIw9qGKG27fVc-VZFBnbfDvkVtIRxU3bEs-sqZ8fv1SbBxeHvHhByLLFDk52jfy8PmAjGPxJGDPV/pubchart?oid=1177492694&format=interactive

2005 and 2017… 2012 was no slouch either with named storms. Ominous.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1353 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:54 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/GyAxP97.png

What a contrast from 2016-2021. This, if I am seeing this correctly, is the first time in a while where the Atlantic subtropics were modestly cooler than normal and the deep tropics modestly warmer than normal. Even 2017 and 2020 at this point in time did not feature such a widespread, cool subtropics, which honestly amazes me. In the past several seasons, I specifically recall how people were speculating about how the warm subtropics could rob instability from the MDR and how the warm subtropics could have been a culprit in the relative stability seen in the MDR during peak season, but this year, that does not seem like an issue one bit.

At this point, I am genuinely wondering if we're in for not only a rough and active season but also a season that features a ferocious level of hurricane activity specifically concentrated in the deep tropics. In other words, no Florences or Dorians as worst-case scenarios but rather Ivans and Allens.


This SSTA configuration…..big yikes :eek: Honestly kinda reminds me of the 2005 configuration at this point as much as I hate to say it. 2005 was slightly warmer but still…the cooler subtropics is unlike anything we have seen in many years. Not a good sign at all.


Not just slightly warmer, 2005 was far warmer than 2022 in the deep tropics. It's a active/hyperactive look but not 2005
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1354 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:23 am

Been saying for a while, we are headed towards a very quiet July

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1541439759356157952


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1355 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:24 am

Honestly until proven otherwise climate change has changed the overall steering around FL. It would not surprise me 1 bit to see everything once again avoiding the state this season.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1356 Postby toad strangler » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:26 am

SFLcane wrote:Honestly until proven otherwise climate change has changed the overall steering around FL. It would not surprise me 1 bit to see everything once again avoiding the state this season.



:uarrow: :lol: come on broski
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1357 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:31 am

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Honestly until proven otherwise climate change has changed the overall steering around FL. It would not surprise me 1 bit to see everything once again avoiding the state this season.



:uarrow: :lol: come on broski


The big piece I see is that western ridge. It's always there it seems nowadays. Very hard to get that digging west US trough that entrenches a downstream NE ridge like you need to get a storm across FL.

:sadly:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1358 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:14 pm

SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Honestly until proven otherwise climate change has changed the overall steering around FL. It would not surprise me 1 bit to see everything once again avoiding the state this season.



:uarrow: :lol: come on broski


The big piece I see is that western ridge. It's always there it seems nowadays. Very hard to get that digging west US trough that entrenches a downstream NE ridge like you need to get a storm across FL.

:sadly:


Are you referring to east coast Florida peninsula landfalls? Florida has been hit numerous times since 2004 from other angles.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1359 Postby toad strangler » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:18 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:

:uarrow: :lol: come on broski


The big piece I see is that western ridge. It's always there it seems nowadays. Very hard to get that digging west US trough that entrenches a downstream NE ridge like you need to get a storm across FL.

:sadly:


Are you referring to east coast Florida peninsula landfalls? Florida has been hit numerous times since 2004 from other angles.


East coast was hit by Cat 1 Katrina in 2005. CLOSE CALLS recently with Matthew & Dorian. Irma was very close to a EC hit. There is no such thing as a Florida shield :lol: . We just been lucky.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1360 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:41 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:

:uarrow: :lol: come on broski


The big piece I see is that western ridge. It's always there it seems nowadays. Very hard to get that digging west US trough that entrenches a downstream NE ridge like you need to get a storm across FL.

:sadly:


Are you referring to east coast Florida peninsula landfalls? Florida has been hit numerous times since 2004 from other angles.


Correct in particular west palm down to Miami metro areas.
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