2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
https://fb.watch/eRq5dPOW9c/
This was a really good presentation from Phil Klotzbach a couple days ago..
This was a really good presentation from Phil Klotzbach a couple days ago..
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
weeniepatrol wrote:weeniepatrol wrote:probably nothing..
https://imgur.com/bw8zoYw
https://imgur.com/S7qb7jP
All I'm saying is.. it's mid August and sfc vorticities like this should probably be monitored
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Guys, I’m seeing signs that the Atlantic is awakening. Waves are starting to look healthier coming off Africa.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
I think there's a lot of early indications that the steering regime is not going to be the typical EC trough -PDO/Nina for September. Certainly hasn't been typical Nina conditions in the basin since October of last year. Late August into September looks concerning for steering regime given the warming in the NE Pac. Euro monthlies have that too, and Roundy's MJO/LF forcing analogs.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Iceresistance wrote:Something to note here from the CPC
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Global-hazards-outlook.png
That below average rainfall stands out to me, wonder what their reasoning for it is. The MJO should still be in phase 2/3 and the last EPS weekly shows it moving over the MC only around mid September.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
It makes sense that 2020 tropical Atlantic had below average THDV with most of the MDR systems struggled that year.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
zzh wrote::uarrow: It makes sense that 2020 tropical Atlantic had below average THDV with most of the MDR systems struggled that year.
It's always below average. Always. Once something is below average for 15 years isn't it time to question the average?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
tolakram wrote:https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1558147444092829696?s=20&t=BciooqnctBvXX_7DYrtLUg
Thankyou Stu!
I remember back in 2017 at the peak of the season while Irma and pre-Jose were out there it still just barely reached the climo line.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Fwiw (since I don't know whether there are strong implications for the tropical Atlantic), the UK and France are in the midst of another heatwave though not nearly as hot as last month's all time record heat. For example, the UK's hottest so far has been ~94 F vs ~104 F last month. But even this 94 F is still 20 F warmer than normal and is hotter than most years' hottest of each year prior to 2015. Plus, the current heatwave started yesterday (8/11) and will continue through Sun (8/14)...so a pretty good length of 4 days. In addition, SW France had a hottest of 106 F! After Sunday, it looks to end. So, even if there are implications for the Atlantic tropics, it will be over before Monday.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
tolakram wrote:zzh wrote::uarrow: It makes sense that 2020 tropical Atlantic had below average THDV with most of the MDR systems struggled that year.
It's always below average. Always. Once something is below average for 15 years isn't it time to question the average?
I wonder what average climo base they are using? If it is based on temperature, warming from SSTs to the layers of the atmosphere is pretty much a global thing so using a past baseline would definitely not help.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Ntxw wrote:tolakram wrote:zzh wrote::uarrow: It makes sense that 2020 tropical Atlantic had below average THDV with most of the MDR systems struggled that year.
It's always below average. Always. Once something is below average for 15 years isn't it time to question the average?
I wonder what average climo base they are using? If it is based on temperature, warming from SSTs to the layers of the atmosphere is pretty much a global thing so using a past baseline would definitely not help.
An update to the Instability graphic is finally incoming. It is also incredible that we have trended below the 25th percentile for July and August, that is something you would expect in a Nino year.
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1558205022218895362
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
And here's the answer to the climo being used by the original one.
https://twitter.com/CSlocumWX/status/1558213063425376257
https://twitter.com/CSlocumWX/status/1558213063425376257
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
It's a minor miracle, all it took was someone to note it in a tweet.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
skyline385 wrote:And here's the answer to the climo being used by the original one.
https://twitter.com/CSlocumWX/status/1558213063425376257?s=20&t=VV-cblFO7JKO0w3ceWJnBA
NO WONDER.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
CPC Update, it's still there, there must be something going on.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Updated.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Updated.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
384 hour GFS. That's a gutsy call.
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