2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3641 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 15, 2022 12:01 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:Models show nothing for anticyclonic development and the ensembles are pretty dead, but this means NOTHING. Models showed nothing until Julia was two-three days from forming as a more recent example. Also it is kind of hard to ignore the fact that 10 out of the 13 La Nina years since 1995 have had impactful storms. You also have to factor that 2010 has Hurricane Thomas which hit the Leeward Islands in November. So that's 11 out of 13 La Nina seasons where something has happened in October or November right there....that's 84.61% of the time! Last year, 2021, where no big storms formed in the Caribbean Sea was honestly an outlier by many means. But, as Teban54 and LarryWx said, Wanda or the precursor of Wanda was quite impactful too. So if you wanted to add Wanda to that list then 12 out of 13 have had some land impacts in October and November for storms that were or would go to be tropical cyclones. 92.31% of the time! So IMO, we probably aren't done. We are just in an intra-seasonal lull. Models showing nothing is nowcasting IMO as well. For me personally, I think one more system in the Caribbean Sea is in order as well as a system in the subtropical Atlantic. Could be a bullish forecast but from a statistics standpoint...kinda hard to believe the season is over.


For Caribbean (what that post was about) genesis in 2010, I could have included Richard. Tomas technically wasn't Caribbean. Also, I listed 2009 by mistake being that I meant to list only Niña. So, for Caribbean late OCT/Nov genesis w/sig. land impact in Niña, I'd still call it 10/13 since Wanda of 2021 wasn't Caribbean. So, 2021, 2000, and 1995 were in the no category for Caribbean. But for all areas, 11/13.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3642 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:22 pm

Looking back at the history of this thread has been quite fun. Seems like Fiona really was the storm that made people start to believe that the bust-casting was not a good idea.

Looking at what's to come, it seems like 2022 will not end in the upper echelon of hyperactive, destructive seasons. In fact, there's even a chance that its total ACE will not reach above-average levels. However, that means nothing when you look at the fact that despite busting in terms of the high-end ACE forecasts, 2022 managed to generate one of Canada's worst hurricanes as well as a hurricane that completely blew apart the "Florida Shield" concept into smithereens. And there's no telling what this season could do later this month or in November (as Larrywx has pointed out).

I found it very hard to fathom that all of that "wave-breaking" stuff earlier this year could completely suppress a La Nina season to the point that no major hurricanes would be able to happen. While that may have done a number on total NSs and Hs, it did absolutely nothing to prevent two extremely powerful and unfortunate hurricanes from happening. There's a reason why September is not a month that should be messed around with (September Remember!!).
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3643 Postby zzzh » Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:21 pm

The MJO has been stuck in the Pacific for the past 2 weeks, causing the shutdown we are seeing right now.
Image
Although MJO is nowhere near returning to the Atlantic, this strong CCKW is about to move into the Atlantic.
Image
Image
EPS forecast an improved upper-level wind with an ULAC moving from the MDR to Caribbean from day 7 to ~day 12.
Image
EPS has some signals for TC genesis, although still in fantasy land, it is something to watch.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3644 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 21, 2022 9:00 pm

Image

What the absolute heck is this. :eek:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3645 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 21, 2022 9:33 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qiyFEni.png

What the absolute heck is this. :eek:


What is it? I can't see it.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3646 Postby CFLHurricane » Sat Oct 22, 2022 1:03 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qiyFEni.png

What the absolute heck is this. :eek:


What is it? I can't see it.


It’s a graphic that shows the entire gulf coast from Texas to Florida has been affected by a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane in the last five seasons. What was previously thought to be a rare event is now annual.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3647 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:41 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3648 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:57 am


1. There's a difference between hitting the average line and hitting the range to be classified as an average season. For the latter, NOAA's definition is 73-126.1, so we're already at an average season.

2. This plot uses 1991-2020 climo which is skewed towards active years. NOAA uses 1951-2020 climo for that reason, and it's also more reasonable IMO.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3649 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Oct 24, 2022 11:08 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3650 Postby Hammy » Wed Oct 26, 2022 2:24 pm



This doesn't make any sense given we're at 84 ACE, which is well within the average/'near normal' range. Below normal is 72 or less.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3651 Postby LarryWx » Wed Oct 26, 2022 4:27 pm

Hammy wrote:


This doesn't make any sense given we're at 84 ACE, which is well within the average/'near normal' range. Below normal is 72 or less.


As Teban implied, it makes sense only if the 30 year average is used for normal. The 1991-2020 average is ~120. The 1951-2020 average is ~100.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3652 Postby Hammy » Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:36 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Hammy wrote:


This doesn't make any sense given we're at 84 ACE, which is well within the average/'near normal' range. Below normal is 72 or less.


As Teban implied, it makes sense only if the 30 year average is used for normal. The 1991-2020 average is ~120. The 1951-2020 average is ~100.


The official metric for ACE (which their forecasts are based on) uses 1951-2020 and uses a range:

With most of 1991-2020 being in an active era, using ACE values from 1951-2020 is more representative of the possible ranges of activity that can result in similar ACE values. The 1951-2020 ACE median is 96.7 x 104 kt2


Extremely active season: An ACE index above 159.6 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to 165% of the 1951-2020 median).

Above-normal season: An ACE index above 126.1 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to the 67th percentile of the ACE values from 1951-2020).

Below-normal season:An ACE index below 73.0 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to less than 33rd percentile of the values from 1951-2020 median).

Near-normal season: Neither the above- nor below-normal season criteria are met.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Background.html
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3653 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:58 am

Interesting discussion about backloaded seasons.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1587435882285600769


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3654 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:21 am

We just entered November and we might have two hurricanes soon. Is it really October 1st? :lol:

That was quick too. Season looked mostly dead just a week ago.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3655 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:49 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3656 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Nov 01, 2022 3:19 pm

Just curious but what Atlantic season had the most NSs form in November?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3657 Postby Teban54 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 3:33 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Just curious but what Atlantic season had the most NSs form in November?

Three storms, a tie between several seasons: 1931, 1961, 2001, 2005, 2020. (Source: Wikipedia)
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3658 Postby LarryWx » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:37 pm

LarryWx wrote:I don't know if this is the best topic in which to post this:

There have been 13 seasons since 1995 that are like 2022 with either a current or oncoming La Niña. Out of these 13, only two (1995 and 2000) didn't have at least one more TC with genesis Oct 22+ for which there were significant land effects in the western basin. Oct 22 is still 11 days out, well beyond a reliable period for models. So, though far from a guarantee, the betting odds pretty heavily favor one more system in 2022 that we're currently totally unaware of that will generate a good amount of discussion within tropical wx forums in late October and/or November. (This is not counting the current SW Gulf Invest 93L).


Update based on the near 100% expectation that Lisa will end up having significant land impacts:

For the years 1995-2022, there have been 14 La Niña seasons. Out of these 14, only two had no significant western basin land impacts from TCs with TCG 10/22+: 1995 and 2000. The precursor to Wanda in 2021 (Invest 94L starting off NC) was very strong (winds over 100 mph in Mass.) and thus was counted. Also, the last 10 La Niña seasons in a row (back to 2005) have fallen into this late impact category.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3660 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:39 am



With that being said, I'm curious to see if this season could produce at least one more major hurricane (like in the W. Atlantic) before it all finishes. If it's not Lisa and if this season is looking to have an active November...idk, perhaps this season ends without another major hurricane, but as I've mentioned before, November 30 (not November 1) is the official hurricane season end. Additionally, the Caribbean has enough warm water year-round to theoretically support a major hurricane. We'll have to wait and see if this season does something truly weird regarding that or if not...
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