2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#861 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:47 am

Interesting to compare the possible analogs for 2022.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1527276767504961537

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1527276772747661312

skyline385 · #862 Postby **skyline385** » Thu May 19, 2022 9:57 am

That loop current sticking out is pretty crazy, i also compared it to the last 6 years and none of them had it even remotely close to it.

Of course i completely agree with Andy's points that this will not decide the expected ACE of the season but for any system that makes it to the Gulf, it's not going to be pretty.

Category5Kaiju · #863 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Thu May 19, 2022 10:31 am

NotSparta wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:2021 was able to produce a pre-season storm during a suppressed MJO phase, so something would be weird with this season (2022) if it failed to produce a pre-season storm in either the subtropics or the tropics. 12 days are left in May, so pre-season development is still very much possible. Ever since 2013, pre-season development has virtually been a prerequisite for an active season; every above-average season since 2013 (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) has had pre-season activity.

2021 produced a storm in the subtropics, which is not really affected by MJO. Would only mean anything if those storms all formed in the Caribbean

Also, honestly, I would not be all that surprised to see this pre-season storm streak end this year (though maybe we could see something happen in very early June). If you really look back at 2015-2021, notice how years like 2019 and 2021 had their pre-season storm last an extremely short period of time (in 2019's case, it was never even tropical). 2017's case was a freak occurrence, with the storm being in April of all months and with the next named storm not happening until mid-June. I genuinely think that yes while those storms did happen, if the atmospheric conditions were right, they could have also easily not have happened. Additionally, having/not having a pre-season storm has no correlation with how bad or active a season would be. In fact, since 1995, the only hyperactive seasons that featured a pre-season storm were 2003, 2017, and 2020. 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2005, and 2010 did not.

MHC Tracking · #864 Postby **MHC Tracking** » Thu May 19, 2022 10:46 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:2021 was able to produce a pre-season storm during a suppressed MJO phase, so something would be weird with this season (2022) if it failed to produce a pre-season storm in either the subtropics or the tropics. 12 days are left in May, so pre-season development is still very much possible. Ever since 2013, pre-season development has virtually been a prerequisite for an active season; every above-average season since 2013 (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) has had pre-season activity.

Subtropics storms such as Ana of 2021 aren't usually affected by MJO state, so if I'm being honest its formation was not an indicator for the season overall. A similar formation this year (which at this point appears unlikely, but genesis in the subtropics can surprise people) would similarly, not be a seasonal indicator. A lack of said formation, the same.

skyline385 · #865 Postby **skyline385** » Thu May 19, 2022 11:21 am

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1527288213567483908

zzh · #866 Postby **zzh** » Thu May 19, 2022 12:57 pm

https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1527345064879747072

DorkyMcDorkface · #867 Postby **DorkyMcDorkface** » Thu May 19, 2022 1:20 pm

skyline385 wrote:https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1527288213567483908

Will probably get an EPAC storm first but after that another CAG could develop. Atlantic climatology will be more favorable by then as well (early June vs. mid May) so I see a better opportunity for something to develop this time around.

mixedDanilo.E · #868 Postby **mixedDanilo.E** » Fri May 20, 2022 4:04 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
skyline385 wrote:https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1527288213567483908

Will probably get an EPAC storm first but after that another CAG could develop. Atlantic climatology will be more favorable by then as well (early June vs. mid May) so I see a better opportunity for something to develop this time around.

Early June is also kinda notorious for slop CAG storms that form in the WCAR and Gulf of Mexico too, and this does come in at around that time so we’ll see…

AlphaToOmega · #869 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Fri May 20, 2022 7:12 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:We could see an STS out of this:

https://i.postimg.cc/fLL1dvCP/ecmwf-z850-vort-atl-35.png
https://i.postimg.cc/R0GjqY7f/gfs-z850-vort-atl-18.png
https://i.postimg.cc/LXbw3Z08/icon-mslp-wind-atl-35.png

Yeah, I have noticed that models have been recently and consistently sniffing at that feature. Perhaps we’re not 100% in jeopardy with our preseason streak after all

However, if that system fails to become a STS, our streak would very likely end (which would be infuriating, for sure). I am not sure why our streak is currently in jeopardy; after all, that subtropical warm pool is still present, just as it was in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. It might be the ridge off the East Coast of the United States.

weeniepatrol · #870 Postby **weeniepatrol** » Fri May 20, 2022 11:36 pm

We are definitely creeping closer.

AlphaToOmega · #871 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Sat May 21, 2022 10:22 am

It is May 21, and there is still no sign of pre-season activity. Things could still change from now to May 31, but that system the models were showing (something similar to Ana (2021)) looks less likely to develop than it did before.

Pre-season activity should be statistically favored based on recent trends: every season since 2015 has featured pre-season activity; 7/9 of the past 9 seasons have featured it (2013 to 2021); 8/10 of the past 10 seasons have featured it. In a post-2012 environment, pre-season activity is the norm. Currently, the subtropical warm pool is very prominent, which should, for the moment, tip the balance of activity towards the subtropics, which, as of recently, have been the most common areas of pre-season development. The recent trends and favorable conditions favoring pre-season development make it much more intriguing as to why none is showed on the models.

It is hard to see why 2022 would not have pre-season development, but it is also hard to see what system could develop into a TS or an STS before June 1.

skyline385 · #872 Postby **skyline385** » Sat May 21, 2022 10:52 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:It is May 21, and there is still no sign of pre-season activity. Things could still change from now to May 31, but that system the models were showing (something similar to Ana (2021)) looks less likely to develop than it did before.

Pre-season activity should be statistically favored based on recent trends: every season since 2015 has featured pre-season activity; 7/9 of the past 9 seasons have featured it (2013 to 2021); 8/10 of the past 10 seasons have featured it. In a post-2012 environment, pre-season activity is the norm. Currently, the subtropical warm pool is very prominent, which should, for the moment, tip the balance of activity towards the subtropics, which, as of recently, have been the most common areas of pre-season development. The recent trends and favorable conditions favoring pre-season development make it much more intriguing as to why none is showed on the models.

It is hard to see why 2022 would not have pre-season development, but it is also hard to see what system could develop into a TS or an STS before June 1.

This reminds me of the basin shutdown in October last year.

YouTube · #873 Postby **NotSparta** » Sat May 21, 2022 11:08 am

skyline385 wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:It is May 21, and there is still no sign of pre-season activity. Things could still change from now to May 31, but that system the models were showing (something similar to Ana (2021)) looks less likely to develop than it did before.

Pre-season activity should be statistically favored based on recent trends: every season since 2015 has featured pre-season activity; 7/9 of the past 9 seasons have featured it (2013 to 2021); 8/10 of the past 10 seasons have featured it. In a post-2012 environment, pre-season activity is the norm. Currently, the subtropical warm pool is very prominent, which should, for the moment, tip the balance of activity towards the subtropics, which, as of recently, have been the most common areas of pre-season development. The recent trends and favorable conditions favoring pre-season development make it much more intriguing as to why none is showed on the models.

It is hard to see why 2022 would not have pre-season development, but it is also hard to see what system could develop into a TS or an STS before June 1.

This reminds me of the basin shutdown in October last year.

Yeah, except the basin being shut down in May is totally normal

weeniepatrol · #874 Postby **weeniepatrol** » Sat May 21, 2022 11:25 am

skyline385 wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:It is May 21, and there is still no sign of pre-season activity. Things could still change from now to May 31, but that system the models were showing (something similar to Ana (2021)) looks less likely to develop than it did before.

Pre-season activity should be statistically favored based on recent trends: every season since 2015 has featured pre-season activity; 7/9 of the past 9 seasons have featured it (2013 to 2021); 8/10 of the past 10 seasons have featured it. In a post-2012 environment, pre-season activity is the norm. Currently, the subtropical warm pool is very prominent, which should, for the moment, tip the balance of activity towards the subtropics, which, as of recently, have been the most common areas of pre-season development. The recent trends and favorable conditions favoring pre-season development make it much more intriguing as to why none is showed on the models.

It is hard to see why 2022 would not have pre-season development, but it is also hard to see what system could develop into a TS or an STS before June 1.

This reminds me of the basin shutdown in October last year.

My brother in Christ, it is May

skyline385 · #875 Postby **skyline385** » Sat May 21, 2022 11:28 am

NotSparta wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:It is May 21, and there is still no sign of pre-season activity. Things could still change from now to May 31, but that system the models were showing (something similar to Ana (2021)) looks less likely to develop than it did before.

Pre-season activity should be statistically favored based on recent trends: every season since 2015 has featured pre-season activity; 7/9 of the past 9 seasons have featured it (2013 to 2021); 8/10 of the past 10 seasons have featured it. In a post-2012 environment, pre-season activity is the norm. Currently, the subtropical warm pool is very prominent, which should, for the moment, tip the balance of activity towards the subtropics, which, as of recently, have been the most common areas of pre-season development. The recent trends and favorable conditions favoring pre-season development make it much more intriguing as to why none is showed on the models.

It is hard to see why 2022 would not have pre-season development, but it is also hard to see what system could develop into a TS or an STS before June 1.

This reminds me of the basin shutdown in October last year.

Yeah, except the basin being shut down in May is totally normal

lol my post was not a season is cancelled post, I was just saying how that write up reminded me of last year.

AlphaToOmega · #876 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Sat May 21, 2022 11:38 am

NotSparta wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:It is May 21, and there is still no sign of pre-season activity. Things could still change from now to May 31, but that system the models were showing (something similar to Ana (2021)) looks less likely to develop than it did before.

Pre-season activity should be statistically favored based on recent trends: every season since 2015 has featured pre-season activity; 7/9 of the past 9 seasons have featured it (2013 to 2021); 8/10 of the past 10 seasons have featured it. In a post-2012 environment, pre-season activity is the norm. Currently, the subtropical warm pool is very prominent, which should, for the moment, tip the balance of activity towards the subtropics, which, as of recently, have been the most common areas of pre-season development. The recent trends and favorable conditions favoring pre-season development make it much more intriguing as to why none is showed on the models.

It is hard to see why 2022 would not have pre-season development, but it is also hard to see what system could develop into a TS or an STS before June 1.

This reminds me of the basin shutdown in October last year.

Yeah, except the basin being shut down in May is totally normal

2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 (70% of the 10 most recent seasons) would say otherwise. :wink:

On a serious note, something must be different about this season than previous seasons (e.g. 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) that makes pre-season development much harder this season than previous seasons. Pre-season activity has been in the norm in this post-2012 environment, so a lack of pre-season activity would actually be unexpected.

Despite the subtropical warm pool (look at any map of Atlantic SSTAs at this moment: there is a very obvious EOF2 +AMO pattern), no pre-season subtropical activity is expected. Could this mean that the subtropics are not as favorable as they were previous years?

#877 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 21, 2022 11:42 am

Pre-seasonal development at high latitudes is relatively random. It should not be used as an indicator for how much activity from barotrophic disturbances this season will have.

#878 Postby **toad strangler** » Sat May 21, 2022 12:01 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
skyline385 wrote:This reminds me of the basin shutdown in October last year.

Yeah, except the basin being shut down in May is totally normal

2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 (70% of the 10 most recent seasons) would say otherwise.

On a serious note, something must be different about this season than previous seasons (e.g. 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) that makes pre-season development much harder this season than previous seasons. Pre-season activity has been in the norm in this post-2012 environment, so a lack of pre-season activity would actually be unexpected.

Disagree 100%. Opposite. What was unexpected was the streak of pre season activity.

skyline385 · #879 Postby **skyline385** » Sat May 21, 2022 12:03 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Pre-seasonal development at high latitudes is relatively random. It should not be used as an indicator for how much activity from barotrophic disturbances this season will have.

2005 is probably the best example of this, however it is still very intriguing how the sub topics are so warm and yet there is no activity.

skyline385 · #880 Postby **skyline385** » Sat May 21, 2022 12:05 pm

toad strangler wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Yeah, except the basin being shut down in May is totally normal

2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 (70% of the 10 most recent seasons) would say otherwise.

On a serious note, something must be different about this season than previous seasons (e.g. 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) that makes pre-season development much harder this season than previous seasons. Pre-season activity has been in the norm in this post-2012 environment, so a lack of pre-season activity would actually be unexpected.

Disagree 100%. Opposite. What was unexpected was the streak of pre season activity.

On the contrary if it was unexpected and simply a one time thing then NHC wouldn't have moved TWO date to 15th May.