2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[toad strangler]

[quote="cycloneye"]Interesting discussions on twitter world that ends with the bell.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1557461327651786755

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1557462262323073030

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1557464228495253504

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1557467022212186112

Danny Morris……. “ The pattern over the ATL has been responsible for its shutdown for most of the year.”

It’s statements like these that have me increasingly narrowing my social media focus. This statement is just full of fail talking about a basin that has been shutdown a climatology period that it is NORMAL to be very slow. Ughhh

[weeniepatrol]

Interesting discussions on twitter world that ends with the bell.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1557461327651786755

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1557462262323073030

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1557464228495253504

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1557467022212186112

Danny Morris……. “ The pattern over the ATL has been responsible for its shutdown for most of the year.”

It’s statements like these that have me increasingly narrowing my social media focus. This statement is just full of fail talking about a basin that has been shutdown a climatology period that it is NORMAL to be very slow. Ughhh

Yeah, this is the intraseasonal nadir.

[aspen]

With 97L fading, that’s two model-hyped MDR storms that never verified. Maybe third time’s the charm and we’ll get one next week?

We’re running behind every season of the post-2015 active phase so far. Even 2018 and 2019 had at least one hurricane by now, although 2018 had a nearly dead August until Florence formed at the very end.

[Hammy]

Given we had only one storm after September last year, the CFS is showing significant sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Africa during September, and the tropical waves continue to come off too far north to escape the cooler waters/dust, I think we should at least start asking if there's something larger going on that we're not seeing.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If someone references the CFS again, imma bang my head on something. CFS is unreliable.

[Hammy]

If someone references the CFS again, imma bang my head on something. CFS is unreliable.

It's been quite reliable as a climate model. What's going on with the Atlantic is not the normal pre-bell quiet, something is definitely off and there's no need to freak out when somebody points it out, as it adds literally nothing to the discussion.

[Nimbus]

https://i.imgur.com/iS6QPF5.png

Given we had only one storm after September last year, the CFS is showing significant sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Africa during September, and the tropical waves continue to come off too far north to escape the cooler waters/dust, I think we should at least start asking if there's something larger going on that we're not seeing.

Check out the picture in this article.
https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/sensing-our-planet/saharan-dust-versus-atlantic-hurricanes

Debby was the first Cape Verde storm and came August 21 that year.

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/iS6QPF5.png

Given we had only one storm after September last year, the CFS is showing significant sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Africa during September, and the tropical waves continue to come off too far north to escape the cooler waters/dust, I think we should at least start asking if there's something larger going on that we're not seeing.

Check out the picture in this article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Atla ... hurricanes

Debby was the first Cape Verde storm and came August 21 that year.

Most of the first seasons I tracked back in the late 1990s had similarly late starts. But we're seeing things out of the ordinary with the modeling--the usually overzealous GFS is showing nothing the entire way out, ten days from the bell point, and the ensembles are showing little to no activity.

It seems like the waves are coming off so far north that they're actually contributing to the amount of dust, and as a result you're not getting any stronger waves to the south of it.

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/iS6QPF5.png

Given we had only one storm after September last year, the CFS is showing significant sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Africa during September, and the tropical waves continue to come off too far north to escape the cooler waters/dust, I think we should at least start asking if there's something larger going on that we're not seeing.

The two bolded parts here contradict each other. One reason why the Atlantic had little activity in Oct-Nov 2021 was that the ITCZ was too far south (and sent waves to EPAC that developed into Pamela, Rick etc), not too far north.

Even if the 2022 season underperforms, it probably won't be for the same reasons as late 2021.

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/iS6QPF5.png

Given we had only one storm after September last year, the CFS is showing significant sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Africa during September, and the tropical waves continue to come off too far north to escape the cooler waters/dust, I think we should at least start asking if there's something larger going on that we're not seeing.

The two bolded parts here contradict each other. One reason why the Atlantic had little activity in Oct-Nov 2021 was that the ITCZ was too far south (and sent waves to EPAC that developed into Pamela, Rick etc), not too far north.

Even if the 2022 season underperforms, it probably won't be for the same reasons as late 2021.

The eastern basin was still producing strong waves into early November so the ITCZ over the Atlantic was still displaced to the north. It almost seems like they're coming off too far north, getting shoved too far south to develop in the Caribbean.

I do wonder if the heat wave in Europe is contributing--or at least the synoptic setup--as the jet stream is displaced farther north, so the southern portion of that high (the ITCZ) has gone north with it.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/iS6QPF5.png

Given we had only one storm after September last year, the CFS is showing significant sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Africa during September, and the tropical waves continue to come off too far north to escape the cooler waters/dust, I think we should at least start asking if there's something larger going on that we're not seeing.

The two bolded parts here contradict each other. One reason why the Atlantic had little activity in Oct-Nov 2021 was that the ITCZ was too far south (and sent waves to EPAC that developed into Pamela, Rick etc), not too far north.

Even if the 2022 season underperforms, it probably won't be for the same reasons as late 2021.

The eastern basin was still producing strong waves into early November so the ITCZ over the Atlantic was still displaced to the north. It almost seems like they're coming off too far north, getting shoved too far south to develop in the Caribbean.

I do wonder if the heat wave in Europe is contributing--or at least the synoptic setup--as the jet stream is displaced farther north, so the southern portion of that high (the ITCZ) has gone north with it.

I had mentioned about that heat wave thing way back in this thread. We have so many things to look at that is so confusing in a third La Niña year.

[WiscoWx02]

Model output in the long-range concerning dry air and shear is just as unreliable as it is concerning long-range TC signals...not sure why you're taking it as gospel

Watch him be right though

Yeah bad idea to look at models and say they will be 100% current. Models tend to “nowcast” more than anything this time of year and assume the dry air and wavebreaking will continue on overdrive simply because it is now. I remember this happening in almost every single year if not EVERY single year. Trust me, once we get to August 20th, things should start to stir. I think we need that timeline of the hurricane season to be reposted just as a reminder of where we are at

Are you referring to this timeline?

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.
5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

Yep!!!!

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/iS6QPF5.png

Given we had only one storm after September last year, the CFS is showing significant sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Africa during September, and the tropical waves continue to come off too far north to escape the cooler waters/dust, I think we should at least start asking if there's something larger going on that we're not seeing.

I’ve been asking that ever since the abrupt shutdown in activity after Sam. It feels like the same struggles of ON 2021 — waves ending up too low (Bonnie, every GFS WCar storm in late 2021) while the EPac is abnormally active for such a strong La Niña. Maybe we’re just too used to the hyperactive early 2020 and 2021 seasons, but even comparing 2022 to other seasons that took a while to get going like 2004, 2010, 2018, and 2019, we’re still behind because all four had at least one hurricane by now. Plus, most favorable indicators are not verifying or yielding much activity. I highly doubt we get the Caribbean Cruisers many people anticipated early on.

[cycloneye]

Ok, stop the presses. Phil is here.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1557507259831160832

[weeniepatrol]

2013! Wavebreaking! Cool Canary Current!

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1557507259831160832

[WiscoWx02]

https://i.imgur.com/iS6QPF5.png

Given we had only one storm after September last year, the CFS is showing significant sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Africa during September, and the tropical waves continue to come off too far north to escape the cooler waters/dust, I think we should at least start asking if there's something larger going on that we're not seeing.

I’ve been asking that ever since the abrupt shutdown in activity after Sam. It feels like the same struggles of ON 2021 — waves ending up too low (Bonnie, every GFS WCar storm in late 2021) while the EPac is abnormally active for such a strong La Niña. Maybe we’re just too used to the hyperactive early 2020 and 2021 seasons, but even comparing 2022 to other seasons that took a while to get going like 2004, 2010, 2018, and 2019, we’re still behind because all four had at least one hurricane by now. Plus, most favorable indicators are not verifying or yielding much activity. I highly doubt we get the Caribbean Cruisers many people anticipated early on.

I remember thinking at the end of last year that quick shut down was a sign of something bigger because there should have been several cyclones in October. The entire northern hemisphere has been mostly devoid of tropical cyclones ever since or tropical cyclones that actually reached their full potential (minus a typhoon or two) and Darby. The entire northern hemisphere seems off yes. That doesn’t mean it still can’t be a busy Atlantic hurricane season by any means but these issues go back to last October I agree 100%.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1557508180380225536




2009 was a Strong El Nino with an ONI peak of +1.6.

Lid is coming off soon, folks.

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/iS6QPF5.png

Given we had only one storm after September last year, the CFS is showing significant sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Africa during September, and the tropical waves continue to come off too far north to escape the cooler waters/dust, I think we should at least start asking if there's something larger going on that we're not seeing.

I’ve been asking that ever since the abrupt shutdown in activity after Sam. It feels like the same struggles of ON 2021 — waves ending up too low (Bonnie, every GFS WCar storm in late 2021) while the EPac is abnormally active for such a strong La Niña. Maybe we’re just too used to the hyperactive early 2020 and 2021 seasons, but even comparing 2022 to other seasons that took a while to get going like 2004, 2010, 2018, and 2019, we’re still behind because all four had at least one hurricane by now. Plus, most favorable indicators are not verifying or yielding much activity. I highly doubt we get the Caribbean Cruisers many people anticipated early on.

I'm doing what I did the last time we had a full on season cancel fest. Making sure I quote the posts.

It's August 10th and nothing significant has changed.

[SFLcane]

I leave this right here from Weathertigers blog today.

Some analog and long-range modeling indicates that blocking may start to develop over the western Atlantic in the last week of August, and blossom over the Great Lakes through the first half of September. This would be a worrisome steering pattern for the historically most active weeks of hurricane season, should it indeed develop.



That means landfall risks are above normal for Florida over the next few months, and there are some shadows on the cave wall favoring a worrisome steering regime in September. As ever, it would be surprising to get through the next 10 weeks without at least some major tropical intrigue for Florida or the rest of the continental U.S. So, be prepared for whiplash when the quiet regime ends, and don’t be shocked if August plays to its demotivational strengths by the end of the month.

[weeniepatrol]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1557508180380225536

Average ACE of these years is 162.7. Subtract 2009 because obviously we are not in a Strong El Nino and this rises to 176.4.