2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1526369299220381697
The big question is if our seven-year streak of pre-season activity will continue. It very well might; subtropical activity is hard to forecast in advance.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1526369299220381697
Wow that’s a lot of favorable CCKW activity for most of the next four weeks. If this verifies, we could see a more active than normal June, maybe even around 2020’s pace.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
aspen wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1526369299220381697
Wow that’s a lot of favorable CCKW activity for most of the next four weeks. If this verifies, we could see a more active than normal June, maybe even around 2020’s pace.
If that verifies, I would not be surprised if we see 3 or 4 NSs in the month of June alone. Assuming this potential system next week becomes Alex and actually forms, who knows if we'll see Earl or Fiona by late June/early July?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
It’s not that favorable because it’s way too early for AEW genesis. What it does suggest however is 1-2 more cracks at CAG genesis.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Here is a great thread that I recommend to read.
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526501434086285313
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526501858013065217
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526506296861765632
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526508706619432961
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526501434086285313
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526501858013065217
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526506296861765632
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526508706619432961
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
cycloneye wrote:Here is a great thread that I recommend to read.
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526501434086285313
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526501858013065217
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526506296861765632
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526508706619432961
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1526508706619432961
Could see June be active especially with persistent MJO in the west Atlantic too which the CFS weeklies also seem to hint as well.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Also CFS weeklies showing persistent above normal precip in the gulf and WCAR into the most of the first half of June.
[imgur] https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_3.png[/imgur]
[imgur] https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_4.png[/imgur]
MJO on the CFS weeklies also hints at strong western Atlantic Phase 8-1 MJO persistent around this time too. Maybe more chances besides the time we have this week for TC development??
[imgur] https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_3.png[/imgur]
[imgur] https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_4.png[/imgur]
MJO on the CFS weeklies also hints at strong western Atlantic Phase 8-1 MJO persistent around this time too. Maybe more chances besides the time we have this week for TC development??
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
mixedDanilo.E wrote:Also CFS weeklies showing persistent above normal precip in the gulf and WCAR into the most of the first half of June.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_3.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_4.png
MJO on the CFS weeklies also hints at strong western Atlantic Phase 8-1 MJO persistent around this time too. Maybe more chances besides the time we have this week for TC development??
I wonder: is pre-season development going to continue with this season?
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
mixedDanilo.E wrote:Also CFS weeklies showing persistent above normal precip in the gulf and WCAR into the most of the first half of June.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_3.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_4.png
MJO on the CFS weeklies also hints at strong western Atlantic Phase 8-1 MJO persistent around this time too. Maybe more chances besides the time we have this week for TC development??
Indications suggest that there will be another CAG around early June. Would be quite an interesting sight if this current CAG and the following CAG give rise to Atlantic storms rather than EPAC or no storm at all
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Category5Kaiju wrote:mixedDanilo.E wrote:Also CFS weeklies showing persistent above normal precip in the gulf and WCAR into the most of the first half of June.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_3.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_4.png
MJO on the CFS weeklies also hints at strong western Atlantic Phase 8-1 MJO persistent around this time too. Maybe more chances besides the time we have this week for TC development??
Indications suggest that there will be another CAG around early June. Would be quite an interesting sight if this current CAG and the following CAG give rise to Atlantic storms rather than EPAC or no storm at all
We gotta wait and see maybe on both sides we could see stuff but depends on where is favorable - arguably the Caribbean would be more favorable cuz of the atmospheric setup for the Atlantic this year.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Subtropics warming again.
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1526681070367916032
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1526682045874941954
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1526681070367916032
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1526682045874941954
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Looking at the last 30 years climo instead of the 1981-2010 period on Alex's site kinda shows that the MDR has cooled below average, almost like a -AMO pattern
Last edited by skyline385 on Wed May 18, 2022 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
That's a classic EOF2 +AMO if I've ever seen one.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: That's a classic EOF2 +AMO if I've ever seen one.
I will happily admit that my knowledge on AMO patterns is pretty limited so I am probably in the wrong here. I was mostly looking to share how the MDR SST are again below average when using recent climo.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
skyline385 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: That's a classic EOF2 +AMO if I've ever seen one.
I will happily admit that my knowledge on AMO patterns is pretty limited so I am probably in the wrong here. I was mostly looking to share how the MDR SST are again below average when using recent climo.
Heck I don’t even know what AMO is lol don’t worry about it.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
2021 was able to produce a pre-season storm during a suppressed MJO phase, so something would be weird with this season (2022) if it failed to produce a pre-season storm in either the subtropics or the tropics. 12 days are left in May, so pre-season development is still very much possible. Ever since 2013, pre-season development has virtually been a prerequisite for an active season; every above-average season since 2013 (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) has had pre-season activity.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
AlphaToOmega wrote:2021 was able to produce a pre-season storm during a suppressed MJO phase, so something would be weird with this season (2022) if it failed to produce a pre-season storm in either the subtropics or the tropics. 12 days are left in May, so pre-season development is still very much possible. Ever since 2013, pre-season development has virtually been a prerequisite for an active season; every above-average season since 2013 (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) has had pre-season activity.
Yes but unless they develop in the MDR or Caribbean, it doesn’t say much about what the rest of the season will be like. Weak gulf and subtropic development is a poor indicator for predicting the rest of the season. 2005 did not feature a pre season storm. Keep that in mind. Unless an unusually powerful system develops like a cat 1 in may, I would pay no attention to early system development in regards to its indications of how the rest of the season will go. An exception to what I said would be hurricane Alex in January 2016, but that would not have any impact on the Atlantic Hurricane season of 2016 because of how early it developed as well as the fact that it developed out of a cold core low without any tropical origin.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1527253024514756611
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1527253043997286402
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1527253043997286402
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
AlphaToOmega wrote:2021 was able to produce a pre-season storm during a suppressed MJO phase, so something would be weird with this season (2022) if it failed to produce a pre-season storm in either the subtropics or the tropics. 12 days are left in May, so pre-season development is still very much possible. Ever since 2013, pre-season development has virtually been a prerequisite for an active season; every above-average season since 2013 (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) has had pre-season activity.
2021 produced a storm in the subtropics, which is not really affected by MJO. Would only mean anything if those storms all formed in the Caribbean
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