2022 Global ACE: - NH - 385.3 / NATL - 95.1 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 163.2 - NIO - 10.5

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cycloneye
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2022 Global ACE: - NH - 385.3 / NATL - 95.1 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 163.2 - NIO - 10.5

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 01, 2022 6:44 am

Here are the 2022 ACE numbers for all the basins and let's wait and see if the northern hemisphere turns above average and how the North Atlantic and EPAC perform in this department.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - / EPAC - / WPAC - / NIO - / SHEM - 12.7

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:20 am

The Southern Hemisphere ACE numbers so far are well below average and also goes to the Southern Indian Ocean.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - / EPAC - / WPAC - / NIO - / SHEM - 55.8

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:32 am

Cyclone Batsirai lifted the Southern Hemisphere numbers with it's 35.4 units to 55.8, but still, is way below average as the average for Febuary 13 is 103.0.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - / EPAC - / WPAC - / NIO - / SHEM - 55.8

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:32 am

Cyclone Batsirai lifted the Southern Hemisphere numbers with it's 35.4 units to 55.8, but still, is way below average as the average for Febuary 13 is 103.0.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - / EPAC - / WPAC - 17.9 / NIO - 3.4 / SHEM - 128.3

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 09, 2022 7:03 am

The Southern Hemisphere is way below average as it is supposed to be over 200.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - / EPAC - / WPAC - 17.9 / NIO - 3.4 / SHEM - 128.3

#6 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 09, 2022 7:59 am

cycloneye wrote:The Southern Hemisphere is way below average as it is supposed to be over 200.


One thing I noticed was the Australian and the South Pacific cyclone seasons ended as below average, with no high end Cat 4 or Cat 5-strength cyclones. From my understanding, that is not normal; in a given season, usually at least one of the basins is operationally above average. The SW Indian Ocean did all the heavy weight-lifting in the Southern Hemisphere so far.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - / EPAC - 0.5 / WPAC - 17.4 / NIO - 6.0 / SHEM - 130.8

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 5:49 pm

EPAC begins it's ACE run for 2022. Let's see at the end of season how it finishes.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 0.2 / EPAC - 6.8 / WPAC - 17.4 / NIO - 6.0 / SHEM - 130.8

#8 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 10:43 pm

Alex is giving the Atlantic a nice little start for ACE.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 0.2 / EPAC - 6.8 / WPAC - 17.4 / NIO - 6.0 / SHEM - 130.8

#9 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:28 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Alex is giving the Atlantic a nice little start for ACE.


Its going to be around 2-ish ACE from Alex right?
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 0.2 / EPAC - 6.8 / WPAC - 17.4 / NIO - 6.0 / SHEM - 130.8

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:44 pm

skyline385 wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Alex is giving the Atlantic a nice little start for ACE.


Its going to be around 2-ish ACE from Alex right?


Ended with 1.8 ACE units.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 1.8 / EPAC - 12.9 / WPAC - 17.4 / NIO - 6.0 / SHEM - 132.5

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:46 am

EPAC getting ACE units fast. Let's see after Blas and Celia are done, how much ACE this basin will get. Looks like it will surpass WPAC.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 40.7 / WPAC - 22.1

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:19 am

EPAC is sprinting away right now and looks like more activity will form soon to add more ACE.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 47.3 / WPAC - 22.1

#13 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:51 pm

I can just tell the WPAC is screaming and kicking in the air right now :D

Clearly, the basin that is typically the second most active basin in a normal year is ahead of the most active basin by quite a bit.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 47.3 / WPAC - 22.1

#14 Postby Foxfires » Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:45 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:I can just tell the WPAC is screaming and kicking in the air right now :D

Clearly, the basin that is typically the second most active basin in a normal year is ahead of the most active basin by quite a bit.


To be fair, it seems like that was kind of the case in a couple years, but no years on record have had the EPAC beating the WPAC by ACE count. EPAC in general is just more frontloaded and isn't very backloaded, because the basin literally has significantly more July activity than it has in October, never mind November, which has less than or not much more activity than May (this is all from total storm count from each category from a Wikipedia chart + one from a NOAA FAQ so I'm not sure how ACE stacks up).
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 50.6 / WPAC - 22.1

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2022 4:33 pm

This is impressive for EPAC reaching the 50 units mark on July 13th, with weak La Niña present. The normal average for this date is 22.7.
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2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 50.6 / WPAC - 22.1

#16 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jul 13, 2022 5:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is impressive for EPAC reaching the 50 units mark on July 13th, with weak La Niña present. The normal average for this date is 22.7.

Going to be over 70 soon if the next system verifies as per models. Even if it shuts down after that, this would have been a very impressive run.

And I also hope this ends the “it’s normal for EPAC to be this active in July” posts…
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 47.3 / WPAC - 22.1

#17 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 13, 2022 5:10 pm

Foxfires wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:I can just tell the WPAC is screaming and kicking in the air right now :D

Clearly, the basin that is typically the second most active basin in a normal year is ahead of the most active basin by quite a bit.


To be fair, it seems like that was kind of the case in a couple years, but no years on record have had the EPAC beating the WPAC by ACE count. EPAC in general is just more frontloaded and isn't very backloaded, because the basin literally has significantly more July activity than it has in October, never mind November, which has less than or not much more activity than May (this is all from total storm count from each category from a Wikipedia chart + one from a NOAA FAQ so I'm not sure how ACE stacks up).


ACE wise the EPAC is more active after August 1st. In reality the basin averages 42 units by July 31st. The remaining 90 units occurs between Aug-Nov. Now July does tend to have the highest uptick curve meaning it can load up pretty quickly.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northeastpacific
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 50.6 / WPAC - 22.1

#18 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:34 pm

skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:This is impressive for EPAC reaching the 50 units mark on July 13th, with weak La Niña present. The normal average for this date is 22.7.

Going to be over 70 soon if the next system verifies as per models. Even if it shuts down after that, this would have been a very impressive run.

And I also hope this ends the “it’s normal for EPAC to be this active in July” posts…

The EPAC is on an impressive streak for sure but I'm not sure why it would shut down any conversation pertaining to EPAC climo. Bottom line is it's not uncommon at all for there to be fast starts in the EPAC during second/third year Niñas. Overall the basin might overperform as a result but history says things will slow down by ASO and therefore it would not be surprising at all to see that. It's not a Niño (or even warm neutral) year and the PDO and NPMM are negative, this pace is rarely ever sustainable in such an environment. There's a good chance it will eventually catch up with the basin once intraseasonal forcing becomes less favorable.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 47.3 / WPAC - 22.1

#19 Postby Foxfires » Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:56 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Foxfires wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:I can just tell the WPAC is screaming and kicking in the air right now :D

Clearly, the basin that is typically the second most active basin in a normal year is ahead of the most active basin by quite a bit.


To be fair, it seems like that was kind of the case in a couple years, but no years on record have had the EPAC beating the WPAC by ACE count. EPAC in general is just more frontloaded and isn't very backloaded, because the basin literally has significantly more July activity than it has in October, never mind November, which has less than or not much more activity than May (this is all from total storm count from each category from a Wikipedia chart + one from a NOAA FAQ so I'm not sure how ACE stacks up).


ACE wise the EPAC is more active after August 1st. In reality the basin averages 42 units by July 31st. The remaining 90 units occurs between Aug-Nov. Now July does tend to have the highest uptick curve meaning it can load up pretty quickly.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northeastpacific


I'm aware it peaks at Aug-Sep. I'm just saying that it probably won't keep up this activity through Oct-Dec, at least not this year.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 50.6 / WPAC - 22.1

#20 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:28 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:This is impressive for EPAC reaching the 50 units mark on July 13th, with weak La Niña present. The normal average for this date is 22.7.

Going to be over 70 soon if the next system verifies as per models. Even if it shuts down after that, this would have been a very impressive run.

And I also hope this ends the “it’s normal for EPAC to be this active in July” posts…

The EPAC is on an impressive streak for sure but I'm not sure why it would shut down any conversation pertaining to EPAC climo. Bottom line is it's not uncommon at all for there to be fast starts in the EPAC during second/third year Niñas. Overall the basin might overperform as a result but history says things will slow down by ASO and therefore it would not be surprising at all to see that. It's not a Niño (or even warm neutral) year and the PDO and NPMM are negative, this pace is rarely ever sustainable in such an environment. There's a good chance it will eventually catch up with the basin once intraseasonal forcing becomes less favorable.


The way I see it, having a classic La Nina coincide with an active EPAC is just as impressive as having a classic El Nino coincide with an active Atlantic. There's a reason why ENSO state is one of the most, if not the most, historically reliable indicator for how much activity one basin has relative to the other in a given season.
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