2022 Global ACE: - NH - 385.3 / NATL - 95.1 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 163.2 - NIO - 10.5

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Ntxw
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 47.3 / WPAC - 22.1

#21 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:32 pm

Foxfires wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Foxfires wrote:
To be fair, it seems like that was kind of the case in a couple years, but no years on record have had the EPAC beating the WPAC by ACE count. EPAC in general is just more frontloaded and isn't very backloaded, because the basin literally has significantly more July activity than it has in October, never mind November, which has less than or not much more activity than May (this is all from total storm count from each category from a Wikipedia chart + one from a NOAA FAQ so I'm not sure how ACE stacks up).


ACE wise the EPAC is more active after August 1st. In reality the basin averages 42 units by July 31st. The remaining 90 units occurs between Aug-Nov. Now July does tend to have the highest uptick curve meaning it can load up pretty quickly.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northeastpacific


I'm aware it peaks at Aug-Sep. I'm just saying that it probably won't keep up this activity through Oct-Dec, at least not this year.


It may not. But at the moment it's doing so with just about every condition unfavorable to it which is astonishing. Front loaded seasons usually exist with +NPMM or +PDO of some sort tugging the Nina but by every metric it should be very quiet currently. That's the unusual part.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 47.3 / WPAC - 22.1

#22 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Foxfires wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
ACE wise the EPAC is more active after August 1st. In reality the basin averages 42 units by July 31st. The remaining 90 units occurs between Aug-Nov. Now July does tend to have the highest uptick curve meaning it can load up pretty quickly.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northeastpacific


I'm aware it peaks at Aug-Sep. I'm just saying that it probably won't keep up this activity through Oct-Dec, at least not this year.


It may not. But at the moment it's doing so with just about every condition unfavorable to it which is astonishing. Front loaded seasons usually exist with +NPMM or +PDO of some sort tugging the Nina but by every metric it should be very quiet currently. That's the unusual part.


Makes me wonder if anyone opened the link you posted. When the ACE plot looks like this in what should be a traditionally unfavorable base state (even with the front loading of EPAC), it is impressive regardless of the reasoning for it. And lets not forget, all models are predicting another strong system incoming right behind Darby.

Image
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 51.6 / WPAC - 22.1

#23 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jul 14, 2022 1:01 am

I think the bigger question (at least personally) is, why is the EPAC so active right now but the WPAC so inactive? Aren't these two basins typically coupled in terms of activity (hence why La Nina years tend to be unfavorable for both basins but El Nino years favorable?)
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 59.4 / WPAC - 22.1

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:11 pm

The EPAC dominance so far is very impressive with La Niña and -PDO and it looks like it may reach 100 units in the next 2 to 3 weeks if the GFS / ECMWF are right. The average for July 17 is 27.6 but it has 59.4 as of 4 PM CDT.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.8 / WPAC - 23.7

#25 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:54 am

Heading into late August and there is a global ACE drought. No basin is adding much if any significant units. What an odd season so far for the NHEM.

Current Global: 113.8 units (normal 190.9 units).
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - 113.8 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.8 / WPAC - 23.7

#26 Postby skyline385 » Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:21 pm

Ntxw wrote:Heading into late August and there is a global ACE drought. No basin is adding much if any significant units. What an odd season so far for the NHEM.

Current Global: 113.8 units (normal 190.9 units).

I would say EPAC is adding a significant amount and is literally carrying the global ACE. We would be around 80-90 ACE total if the EPAC had behaved like an average year.


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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - 113.8 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.8 / WPAC - 23.7

#27 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 20, 2022 11:55 pm

When was the last time that every major Northern Hemisphere basin ended up being below average? 1977?

Even that year the Atlantic managed to generate a major Cat 5 hurricane though
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - 113.8 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.8 / WPAC - 23.7

#28 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Aug 21, 2022 1:08 am

I’d be surprised if the Atlantic manages to even crack 100 barely at the rate it’s going.

Something is globally wrong to be affecting the NHem so badly and causing the WPac and Atlantic to be sputtering. The volcanic eruption earlier this year in the SPac might be a factor as to why.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 114.7 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 23.7

#29 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 21, 2022 7:38 am

MarioProtVI wrote:I’d be surprised if the Atlantic manages to even crack 100 barely at the rate it’s going.

Something is globally wrong to be affecting the NHem so badly and causing the WPac and Atlantic to be sputtering. The volcanic eruption earlier this year in the SPac might be a factor as to why.

I’ve been suspicious about the Tonga eruption too. I’m not sure the strong triple-dip Nina can totally explain both the near-record inactivity in the WPac, and the slowest Atlantic season so far in years. Triple-dip Nina seasons have been slower than the previous first and second-year Nina seasons, but this is insane. The last named storm was in early July, and it’s now August 21st. 2021’s named storm drought seems normal by comparison.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 114.7 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 23.7

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 21, 2022 7:50 am

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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 114.7 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 23.7

#31 Postby Astromanía » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:31 am

2013 all over again?
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 114.7 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 23.7

#32 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:35 am

Astromanía wrote:2013 all over again?


It's tempting to think that, but even 2013 had a pretty active WPAC in August (even one Category 4 strength storm), and the Atlantic was seeing NSs form then as well. This year it seems like the entire NH is, at last as of this month, basically shut down. It's indeed head-scratching
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 114.7 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 23.7

#33 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:37 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Astromanía wrote:2013 all over again?


It's tempting to think that, but even 2013 had a pretty active WPAC in August (even one Category 4 strength storm), and the Atlantic was seeing NSs form then as well. This year it seems like the entire NH is, at last as of this month, basically shut down. It's indeed head-scratching

Likely extended from the Late 2021 shutdown.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 114.7 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 23.7

#34 Postby Astromanía » Sun Aug 21, 2022 6:43 pm

Mmmm wasn't the southern hemisphere below average in terms of ACE this past season? We may seeing this but now in the north hemisphere
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 114.7 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 23.7

#35 Postby Astromanía » Sun Aug 21, 2022 6:44 pm

It may be something globally to be completely honest
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 114.7 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 23.7

#36 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Aug 22, 2022 1:36 am

Yeah it’s one thing if the Atlantic is significantly underperforming; it’s another thing for the entire Northern Hemisphere to be doing the same, let alone the entire planet :D

Between the WPAC and the Atlantic, there’s something spectacularly off that is causing both basins to be dead silent. A part of me is even wondering if the issues plaguing the Atlantic are somewhat also to blame for the WPAC’s situation too
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 114.7 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 25.0

#37 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2022 6:50 pm

Finnally WPAC is getting some ACE units as is way behind on the average that is for August 22 at 110.9.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 117.4 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 26.4

#38 Postby Blinhart » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:10 am

When has the global wide ACE total been this low this late in this year?
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 123.4 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 32.4

#39 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2022 4:36 pm

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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 123.4 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 32.4

#40 Postby Teban54 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 4:40 pm

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