2022 Global ACE: - NH - 385.3 / NATL - 95.1 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 163.2 - NIO - 10.5

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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 123.4 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 32.4

#41 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2022 4:42 pm

Teban54 wrote:

Wasn't Tokage's best track updated to 100kts at peak?


Yes, Someone replied in his post about that.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 129.0 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 38.0

#42 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:06 pm

WPAC is getting a lot of ACE thanks to Typhoon Hinnamnor after being very quiet for many weeks but still, when it ends, will be well below average.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 139.1 / NATL - 2.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 48.1

#43 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 31, 2022 8:38 am

After nearly a month long lull, all three big basins looks to add some ACE the coming days.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 147.8 / NATL - 3.2 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 56.4

#44 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2022 4:17 pm

Finnally, the North Atlantic gets ACE units.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 158.8 / NATL - 6.8 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 62.6

#45 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 03, 2022 7:30 pm

1. 1991-2020 ATL ACE daily climo peak period is 8/26-9/22.

2. Daily climo peaks of 1.7+: peak of peak period is 9/6-16 (bolded) with 9/15 the peak day at 2.5

- 8/26: 1.8
- 8/27: 1.7
- 8/28-29: 1.9
- 8/30: 1.8
- 8/31: 2.3
- 9/1-2: 2.4
- 9/3-4: 2.0
- 9/5: 1.9
- 9/6: 2.1
- 9/7: 2.0
- 9/8: 2.3
- 9/9-10: 2.4
- 9/11-12: 2.1
- 9/13: 2.4
- 9/14: 2.3
- 9/15: 2.5 peak day
- 9/16: 2.3

- 9/17: 1.8
- 9/18: 1.7
- 9/19-20: 2.0
- 9/21: 1.7
- 9/22: 1.8

3. 9/3-7/22 should each day end up near 2.0 (near climo)

Climo source:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... thatlantic
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 163.3 / NATL - 10.3 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 65.6

#46 Postby Landy » Sun Sep 04, 2022 9:59 pm

Well, with the new advisories released, we've just hit double digit ACE for NATL! Around 10.35 ACE.
:jump:
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 163.3 / NATL - 10.3 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 65.6

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2022 10:12 pm

Landy wrote:Well, with the new advisories released, we've just hit double digit ACE for NATL! Around 10.35 ACE.
:jump:


Yeah a milestone for NATL in 2022. :D
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 163.3 / NATL - 10.3 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 65.6

#48 Postby NotSparta » Sun Sep 04, 2022 10:14 pm

Landy wrote:Well, with the new advisories released, we've just hit double digit ACE for NATL! Around 10.35 ACE.
:jump:


Also means we've passed 2013 at this point in time lol. Probably for good
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 163.3 / NATL - 10.3 / EPAC - 80.9 / WPAC - 65.6

#49 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 04, 2022 10:16 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Landy wrote:Well, with the new advisories released, we've just hit double digit ACE for NATL! Around 10.35 ACE.
:jump:


Also means we've passed 2013 at this point in time lol. Probably for good


Danielle is already stronger than the strongest 2013 storm, and Earl has a good shot at putting the nail in the coffin with the 2013 comparisons, especially if it becomes a major.

I mean, am I surprised? :D 2013 2.0 speculations have failed to happen the past, what, 9 years? :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 238.6 / NATL - 31.7 / EPAC - 92.2 / WPAC - 107.4

#50 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:38 am

 The ACE for Sept to date is now up to 35.5, which isn't far from the average 1991-2020 MTD of low 40s. The 30 year average for the full September is 56. Looking at the model consensus, there's a very good shot at exceeding that. What a turnaround from the August shutout!
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 258.5 / NATL - 40.5 / EPAC - 94.5 / WPAC - 116.2

#51 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:42 pm

According to wikipedia:
2013: 36.12 Below Normal
2022: 40.5 Ongoing


さよなら (sayonara) 2013! :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 263.1 / NATL - 45.1 / EPAC - 94.5 / WPAC - 116.2

#52 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:31 pm

With Fiona and 98L both looking to be respectable ACE producers, any bets on 2022 NAtl finishing below average in ACE now look in jeopardy. :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 263.1 / NATL - 45.1 / EPAC - 94.5 / WPAC - 116.2

#53 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:38 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:With Fiona and 98L both looking to be respectable ACE producers, any bets on 2022 NAtl finishing below average in ACE now look in jeopardy. :lol:


The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average.

 The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average!

 A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 263.1 / NATL - 45.1 / EPAC - 94.5 / WPAC - 116.2

#54 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:00 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Monsoonjr99 wrote:With Fiona and 98L both looking to be respectable ACE producers, any bets on 2022 NAtl finishing below average in ACE now look in jeopardy. :lol:


The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average.

 The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average!

 A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.


Ian, depending on track, would yield 10-15 additional units with 1.2 already in the books. Current forecast adds to about ~12 additional units. September definitely has carried a extra amount of units compared to average.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 263.1 / NATL - 45.1 / EPAC - 94.5 / WPAC - 116.2

#55 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Monsoonjr99 wrote:With Fiona and 98L both looking to be respectable ACE producers, any bets on 2022 NAtl finishing below average in ACE now look in jeopardy. :lol:


The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average.

 The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average!

 A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.


Ian, depending on track, would yield 10-15 additional units with 1.2 already in the books. Current forecast adds to about ~12 additional units. September definitely has carried a extra amount of units compared to average.

That’s assuming Ian even gets stronger than 45 kt at this rate. There’s a slim but growing chance it never even hits hurricane intensity.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 263.1 / NATL - 45.1 / EPAC - 94.5 / WPAC - 116.2

#56 Postby REDHurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:05 pm

aspen wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average.

 The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average!

 A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.


Ian, depending on track, would yield 10-15 additional units with 1.2 already in the books. Current forecast adds to about ~12 additional units. September definitely has carried a extra amount of units compared to average.

That’s assuming Ian even gets stronger than 45 kt at this rate. There’s a slim but growing chance it never even hits hurricane intensity.


There is zero chance that Ian will not reach hurricane intensity at some point, it's already like halfway there
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 263.1 / NATL - 45.1 / EPAC - 94.5 / WPAC - 116.2

#57 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:27 pm

REDHurricane wrote:
aspen wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Ian, depending on track, would yield 10-15 additional units with 1.2 already in the books. Current forecast adds to about ~12 additional units. September definitely has carried a extra amount of units compared to average.

That’s assuming Ian even gets stronger than 45 kt at this rate. There’s a slim but growing chance it never even hits hurricane intensity.


There is zero chance that Ian will not reach hurricane intensity at some point, it's already like halfway there


Yeah, um, it's like nearly there lol...feel like some folks may have taken the earlier disorganization a bit too literally and thought that that meant automatic bust forecast.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 263.1 / NATL - 45.1 / EPAC - 94.5 / WPAC - 116.2

#58 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:51 am

aspen wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average.

 The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average!

 A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.


Ian, depending on track, would yield 10-15 additional units with 1.2 already in the books. Current forecast adds to about ~12 additional units. September definitely has carried a extra amount of units compared to average.

That’s assuming Ian even gets stronger than 45 kt at this rate. There’s a slim but growing chance it never even hits hurricane intensity.


This aged very poorly :lol:

There was never a chance it would fail to reach hurricane--the question was whether it would be before or after Cuba (and Ian gave us an answer a mere 12 hours later)
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 293.8 / NATL - 63.7 / EPAC - 96.6 / WPAC - 127.4

#59 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:07 am

Safe to say that the Atlantic and WPAC have both woken up after extremely slow starts.

The champagne cork was bound to pop open in both basins from what I imagined. Made hardly any sense that both basins (Atlantic in particular during a La Niña year) would have been historically quiet.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 296.2 / NATL - 64.1 / EPAC - 96.6 / WPAC - 128.2

#60 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:54 pm

Ian should bring us up to the base-level 'near normal' criteria of 70 within the next 36 hours
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