2022 Global ACE: - NH - 385.3 / NATL - 95.1 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 163.2 - NIO - 10.5

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cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 296.2 / NATL - 64.1 / EPAC - 96.6 / WPAC - 128.2

#61 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:30 pm

Hammy wrote:Ian should bring us up to the base-level 'near normal' criteria of 70 within the next 36 hours


Tomorrow at 5 AM.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 314.4 / NATL - 73.0 / EPAC - 96.6 / WPAC - 137.5

#62 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:37 am

The North Atlantic has reached the near normal season threshold.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 316.9 / NATL - 74.8 / EPAC - 96.6 / WPAC - 138.2

#63 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:03 pm

Looks like we'll be at ~78 ACE after Ian.

A near-normal season in terms of ACE is obviously the most likely scenario, as NOAA's above-average threshold is 126.1. Getting 48 ACE from now on isn't impossible, but very hard - even though 2020 managed 74 units in October and November, the average of even the 5 major hurricanes is "just" 13.4.

Of course, a major that doesn't plow into Central America but instead recurves will generate far more ACE, as with slow-moving storms. Some most notable late-season ACE generators: Matthew (~51), Cuba 1932 (~45), Hazel (~41), Wilma (~39), Mitch (~36), Nicole 2016 (~26), Joan (~24). Obviously these are extremes and should not be expected.

The point is that, above-average ACE may not be totally out of question if we get a very busy late season with a pattern that favors recurves (unlike 2020). Of course, chances are slim.


Aside: I just found this timeline of a ridiculously backloaded season, 1894:
Image
The season ended with above-average ACE by today's standards (135), with each major hurricane generating 25+ units.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 319.7 / NATL - 76.2 / EPAC - 96.6 / WPAC - 139.4

#64 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:51 am

Not surprised by this statement. It can happen.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1575468603239022593


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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 319.7 / NATL - 76.2 / EPAC - 96.6 / WPAC - 139.4

#65 Postby Abdullah » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:42 am

cycloneye wrote:Not surprised by this statement. It can happen.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1575468603239022593


Based on what though? Is there some special climatological factor that just changed that'll make it active?
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 319.7 / NATL - 76.2 / EPAC - 96.6 / WPAC - 139.4

#66 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:39 am

Abdullah wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Not surprised by this statement. It can happen.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1575468603239022593


Based on what though? Is there some special climatological factor that just changed that'll make it active?


Looks like the normal pattern of early to mid September in the tropics is extending to early thru mid Octrober.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 321.8 / NATL - 76.9 / EPAC - 97.0 / WPAC - 140.6

#67 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:48 pm

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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 321.8 / NATL - 76.9 / EPAC - 97.0 / WPAC - 140.6

#68 Postby Landy » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:48 pm

This is just, wow. What a switch flip we've seen.
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1575692301665333248


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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 316.9 / NATL - 74.8 / EPAC - 96.6 / WPAC - 138.2

#69 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:06 pm

Teban54 wrote: Aside: I just found this timeline of a ridiculously backloaded season, 1894:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/4qqln6mngdssmmjwkw91tf1ywow275p.png
The season ended with above-average ACE by today's standards (135), with each major hurricane generating 25+ units.


1894 was another third year cold ENSO. Its 135 ACE is the highest of the 8 third year cold ENSO. It's storm # 4 is an analog to Ian in terms of both formation date and track. The second highest ACE of these 8 analogs is the 119 of the year 2000.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 331.8 / NATL - 79.1 / EPAC - 101.5 / WPAC - 143.9

#72 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:38 am

I have a feeling that newly designated lemon in the Central Atlantic could really boost our ACE. Some models think it will be a slow long-tracker through the October Caribbean; something 2021 lacked :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 362.8 / NATL - 84.1 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 154.4

#73 Postby kevin » Wed Nov 02, 2022 10:58 am

Based on the current forecast by the NHC Lisa and Martin could push the Atlantic ACE to ~90 (2 ACE from Lisa, 4 ACE from Martin). If we can still get 1 or maybe 2 storms later this month as some of the models are suggesting it's not unthinkable that 100 ACE is still a possibility.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 374.0 / NATL - 87.8 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 161.5

#74 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 02, 2022 11:08 am

100 ACE is still a good possibility. Martin may surprise by reaching briefly cat 3.
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 377.5 / NATL - 91.1 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 161.7

#75 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Nov 03, 2022 10:14 pm

Per CSU, Atlantic is now currently at 91.1 units. This season is now above-average on hurricane count :lol: YTD average is 6.7
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 381.9 / NATL - 95.1 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 162.1

#76 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:46 pm

Image
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 381.9 / NATL - 95.1 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 162.1

#77 Postby abajan » Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:52 pm

So, with all the predictions of a hyperactive season by many experts, it turns out we had a below average ACE. Is that right? :?:
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Re: 2022 Global ACE: - NH - 381.9 / NATL - 95.1 / EPAC - 116.5 / WPAC - 162.1

#78 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:37 pm

abajan wrote:So, with all the predictions of a hyperactive season by many experts, it turns out we had a below average ACE. Is that right? :?:


Near-average
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