2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

I'm still not buying what the GFS is selling - all by itself. Nope. We see the GFS do this every year pre-season.

Here, I made a comparison of the 18Z GFS with the 12Z EC & Canadian. Top is the surface map valid 7am CDT next Sunday, bottom is 200-850mb wind shear. All have 50+ kt wind shear across the western Caribbean & Gulf, but only the GFS ignores the shear and develops a hurricane.

[Cpv17]

I'm still not buying what the GFS is selling - all by itself. Nope. We see the GFS do this every year pre-season.

Here, I made a comparison of the 18Z GFS with the 12Z EC & Canadian. Top is the surface map valid 7am CDT next Sunday, bottom is 200-850mb wind shear. All have 50+ kt wind shear across the western Caribbean & Gulf, but only the GFS ignores the shear and develops a hurricane.

http://wxman57.com/images/WCarib.JPG

When does the shear begin to calm down? I’m assuming it’s normal to have that much shear in May?

[AtlanticWind]

I'm still not buying what the GFS is selling - all by itself. Nope. We see the GFS do this every year pre-season.

Here, I made a comparison of the 18Z GFS with the 12Z EC & Canadian. Top is the surface map valid 7am CDT next Sunday, bottom is 200-850mb wind shear. All have 50+ kt wind shear across the western Caribbean & Gulf, but only the GFS ignores the shear and develops a hurricane.

http://wxman57.com/images/WCarib.JPG

Looks like the shear is further north on the GFS on those charts, maybe thats allowing a storm to form In
the carribean, the 18z GFS then weakens the system when it reaches the gulf and higher shear.

Not saying that the GFS is right but maybe explains development on the model.

[wxman57]

Looks like the shear is further north on the GFS on those charts, maybe thats allowing a storm to form In
the carribean, the 18z GFS then weakens the system when it reaches the gulf and higher shear.

Not saying that the GFS is right but maybe explains development on the model.

Actually, the GFS has the same shear across the NW Caribbean on Saturday, but it has the "hurricane" pushing the shear north as it develops, something that's highly unlikely.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like the shear is further north on the GFS on those charts, maybe thats allowing a storm to form In
the carribean, the 18z GFS then weakens the system when it reaches the gulf and higher shear.

Not saying that the GFS is right but maybe explains development on the model.

Actually, the GFS has the same shear across the NW Caribbean on Saturday, but it has the "hurricane" pushing the shear north as it develops, something that's highly unlikely.

I'm hoping for at least moisture for rain out of this even if no development. Do you see that happening?

[aspen]

06z GFS is finally showing the CAG running over enough of Central America to barely develop.

[N2FSU]

6Z doesn't bury it in CA


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[cycloneye]

From 12:05 UTC TWD discussion.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over
northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and seas
across the basin may increase through late week as this broad low
pressure forms and the ridge north of the area strengthens. Moist
onshore flow may also promote heavy rainfall across northern
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late week.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS still on an island here and it's development is back peddling on the date of a closed circulation. Typical GFS.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS pushing back timeframe, looks like either a weak sheared mess or no development.

[aspen]

Seems like the Euro and CMC try to spin something up in the BoC from this gyre after it runs over Central America. The starting time for this gyre remains the same, with it first appearing late Thursday or on Friday. If it sticks close to CA but manages to develop, we wouldn’t get a storm until later in the weekend.

[NDG]

It never fails when it comes to the first possible system out of the monsoonal gyre early in the season, it always seems to be the GFS vs Euro in timing, area of development and strength.
At the end only a weak to moderate system comes out of it that takes longer to detach itself from the gyre/trough, so a solution between the two.

[SoupBone]

It never fails when it comes to the first possible system out of the monsoonal gyre early in the season, it always seems to be the GFS vs Euro in timing, area of development and strength.
At the end only a weak to moderate system comes out of it that takes longer to detach itself from the gyre/trough, so a solution between the two.

I think it's a combination of early season jitters that has people grabbing hold tight onto the GFS. It does this every single season, and we all fall for it.

[tolakram]

GFS shows a development signal, the solution is nonsense. Euro and CMC coming on board with a very weak system in the far southern BOC or northern EPAC. If we use the GFS as an indicator and not a solution provider I think it works well.

[skyline385]

[skyline385]

GFS pushing back timeframe, looks like either a weak sheared mess or no development.

Not seeing the time frame being pushed on GFS, i don't doubt that it is going to be a sheared mess but the timeframe to me looks the same.

[toad strangler]

MILESTONE moment.

THe GFS 16 day now ends inside active North Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[Ian2401]

I know the GFS has had some doozies, but I can't recall in recent memories it ever being this consistent in its thinking. We are approaching 15+ individual model runs showing largely the same solution (low forming in W Caribbean, deepening, and getting ejected poleward).

Given the lack of model support across the other major models, and the absurdity of its solution (a mid-May hurricane in the Gulf taking a track similar to October climo), I don't see any scenario where the GFS solution plans out, at least not to the degree its showing. I wonder if there has ever been such a bust for the GFS, as I can't remember a time its been this consistent only for it to bust.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

In case you need further proof of how messy and complex this situation is, EPS has been constantly wavering between more lows in the Caribbean and more lows in the EPAC. Definitely not an overwhelming signal for any of these runs, but I did find it at least somewhat interesting. As usual with these monsoonal gyres, the finer details likely will not be resolved until we're 3 days out or so. Also, just a reminder that the door is also open for absolutely nothing at all if there is too much interraction with Central America.

[NDG]

GFS pushing back timeframe, looks like either a weak sheared mess or no development.

Not seeing the time frame being pushed on GFS, i don't doubt that it is going to be a sheared mess but the timeframe to me looks the same.

It at least the trend during the last couple of runs is that it pushes the monsoonal low/trough further west inland over C.A., thus more interaction with land so no development as early as it was showing during the past few days.