2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Blown Away
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#341 Postby Blown Away » Tue May 17, 2022 6:39 am

skyline385 wrote:And there's the NOLA run, GFS is just taking turns at different landfalls every run.


GFS big swings in timing and keeps delaying the development, 06Z yesterday was much faster with this system offshore from Carolinas compared to just off Yucatan today.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#342 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 6:45 am

Blown Away wrote:
skyline385 wrote:And there's the NOLA run, GFS is just taking turns at different landfalls every run.


GFS big swings in timing and keeps delaying the development, 06Z yesterday was much faster with this system offshore from Carolinas compared to just off Yucatan today.


Ensemble support is also decreasing with each run so it does look very unlikely right now
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#343 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 17, 2022 7:12 am

Lol, at this point, I am simply going to wait and see. At least according to GEPS and GEFS, EPAC development ensembles have not really increased, and this entire situation alone is a very volatile setup. :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#344 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 17, 2022 7:37 am

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#345 Postby tolakram » Tue May 17, 2022 7:52 am

The GFS just hit New Orleans so it's now completely echoing the old Canadian model. Maybe we should start counting how many times the GFS hits New Orleans with a storm this year.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#346 Postby kevin » Tue May 17, 2022 7:53 am

Just for the archive, here's 06z GFS with its 2 landfalls:

Image

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#347 Postby Stormcenter » Tue May 17, 2022 8:14 am

This should be interesting.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#348 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 17, 2022 8:26 am

I gotta say, it's honestly quite amazing that the GFS has been so consistent on this particular system, not once did it completely drop it on any of its runs dating back to at least 5 days ago (strength varied of course, but it never had a particular run at any point that completely did not develop the system).
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#349 Postby Mfrier » Tue May 17, 2022 9:11 am

Every year at this time we all start chasing these phantom GFS storms. I don’t put any weight into it unless the euro sniffs it out this time of year
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#350 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 17, 2022 9:26 am

GFS has been consistent, consistently bad. Now the landfall of this modelcane is late May or June 1 (00Z). It's still the only model indicating any development on the Atlantic side of CA. I don't believe it for a second.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#351 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue May 17, 2022 10:42 am

While I agree that the GFS spits out model storms quite often in the early season and preseason, in my many years I don't think I have seen it hold on so consistently. It usually drops it completely at some point or might drop it then see it then drop it again. The model consistency is not unremarkable. That is the only thing that makes me think it is on to something in the pattern. Maybe not a hurricane, but it has been on every single run in some form.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#352 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue May 17, 2022 10:48 am

Once cyclogenesis moves within 120hours on the GFS, I will start considering this storm a real possibility. Until then all I think all we are going to see is a CAG.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#353 Postby Cat5James » Tue May 17, 2022 10:49 am

12Z ICON now showing development of a weak system for the first time as it approaches the FL panhandle.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#354 Postby kevin » Tue May 17, 2022 10:53 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:While I agree that the GFS spits out model storms quite often in the early season and preseason, in my many years I don't think I have seen it hold on so consistently. It usually drops it completely at some point or might drop it then see it then drop it again. The model consistency is not unremarkable. That is the only thing that makes me think it is on to something in the pattern. Maybe not a hurricane, but it has been on every single run in some form.


While I personally am not yet convinced that an actual depression/storm will form as GFS indicates, I do agree that I wouldn't place this in the same category as your average GFS phantom. GFS phantoms happen all the time, but usually only stay for a few runs and are very inconsistent between runs. At least since joining in 2019 I don't think I've ever seen GFS being this determined on a system which eventually turned out to be a phantom. Not saying that it means something will actually form, but it wouldn't throw it away as just another GFS phantom. If GFS turns out to be right it'll be an enormous bust for the other models, but on the other hand if nothing forms then the people behind GFS will probably have quite some analysis to do as to why their model could be this certain about a phantom which every other model didn't even bat an eye at.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#355 Postby kevin » Tue May 17, 2022 10:56 am

Of course just when I post that the first other model joins in :lol:. For now it's just ICON so I don't know how much value we should attach to it. It brings a weak TD/TS to the panhandle, way earlier than GFS I might add.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#356 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:04 am

kevin wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:While I agree that the GFS spits out model storms quite often in the early season and preseason, in my many years I don't think I have seen it hold on so consistently. It usually drops it completely at some point or might drop it then see it then drop it again. The model consistency is not unremarkable. That is the only thing that makes me think it is on to something in the pattern. Maybe not a hurricane, but it has been on every single run in some form.


While I personally am not yet convinced that an actual depression/storm will form as GFS indicates, I do agree that I wouldn't place this in the same category as your average GFS phantom. GFS phantoms happen all the time, but usually only stay for a few runs and are very inconsistent between runs. At least since joining in 2019 I don't think I've ever seen GFS being this determined on a system which eventually turned out to be a phantom. Not saying that it means something will actually form, but it wouldn't throw it away as just another GFS phantom. If GFS turns out to be right it'll be an enormous bust for the other models, but on the other hand if nothing forms then the people behind GFS will probably have quite some analysis to do as to why their model could be this certain about a phantom which every other model didn't even bat an eye at.

It's not just GFS as well. There are several EPS and GEPS members on it as well. It's definitely more than some random phantom cane...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#357 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue May 17, 2022 11:09 am

kevin wrote:Of course just when I post that the first other model joins in :lol:. For now it's just ICON so I don't know how much value we should attach to it. It brings a weak TD/TS to the panhandle, way earlier than GFS I might add.

https://i.imgur.com/YKYfr8p.png

The ICON is just a useless as the CMC, Euro and GFS, I wouldn't put much weight into it. :wink: :wink:
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#358 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:12 am

No, it looks like a random phantom hurricane, to me. Note that the ICON has a weak low nearing the northern Gulf coast on the 23rd, when the GFS has the system by Belize. Note the extremely strong westerly wind shear predicted to dominate the Gulf over the next 10 days. I think the Euro has the right idea. Rain over CA and southern MX and possibly an East Pac storm.
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#359 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:15 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
kevin wrote:Of course just when I post that the first other model joins in :lol:. For now it's just ICON so I don't know how much value we should attach to it. It brings a weak TD/TS to the panhandle, way earlier than GFS I might add.

https://i.imgur.com/YKYfr8p.png

The ICON is just a useless as the CMC, Euro and GFS, I wouldn't put much weight into it. :wink: :wink:

Even though changes are slim, i kinda want it to happen as vindication for GFS lol
Last edited by skyline385 on Tue May 17, 2022 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#360 Postby tropicwatch » Tue May 17, 2022 11:16 am

Four days from now the 06z GFS shows a low north or northeast of Honduras. The EURO has nothing. The only thing they have in common, appears to be a very dominant Bermuda high.
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