2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Cat5James
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 387
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:54 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#501 Postby Cat5James » Fri May 27, 2022 3:39 pm

We could use an early season warm up here in S FL. Been 5 years since we even had sustained TS conditions.
0 likes   

Cat5James
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 387
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:54 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#502 Postby Cat5James » Fri May 27, 2022 3:40 pm

skyline385 wrote:
ronjon wrote:Starting to get good consensus in the long range models between GFS, Euro, and CMC on a tropical storm forming near the Yuc and heading NE somewhere between central and south Florida next weekend.

Most of the GFS runs have it missing SFL as it forms south of Yucatan.

GFS is the southern outlier. CMC appears to be the middle ground solution.
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#503 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 27, 2022 3:44 pm

Cat5James wrote:We could use an early season warm up here in S FL. Been 5 years since we even had sustained TS conditions.

Would be nice and we do need it, Boca got flooded from like 6" of rain last week lol
0 likes   

Cat5James
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 387
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:54 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#504 Postby Cat5James » Fri May 27, 2022 3:50 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Cat5James wrote:We could use an early season warm up here in S FL. Been 5 years since we even had sustained TS conditions.

Would be nice and we do need it, Boca got flooded from like 6" of rain last week lol

I saw that. I picked up a good amount of rain in NW Broward. 3-4 inches.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9593
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#505 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 27, 2022 4:04 pm

TD EPS percentage up to 65-70%

Image
1 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3946
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#506 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri May 27, 2022 4:09 pm

Don’t even think we might get rain, zonal flow is SW to NE, all that rain might be further south…
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#507 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 27, 2022 4:12 pm

SFL rain will depend on if we get the EURO or the GFS run

12Z EPS & GEFS

Image

Image
0 likes   

Cat5James
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 387
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:54 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#508 Postby Cat5James » Fri May 27, 2022 4:35 pm

skyline385 wrote:SFL rain will depend on if we get the EURO or the GFS run

12Z EPS & GEFS

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220527/12d05d381d7d791b8678f3b775919cdb.jpg

Usually safe to expect something in the middle. Southern half of FL peninsula should see on and off heavy showers.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220527/f9cdcaa3feaeb270c26740d38bc06152.jpg
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#509 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 27, 2022 5:30 pm

The GFS runs just don't make any sense, keeps trying to form a system in very high shear off a CAG which is seemingly unaffected by the landfalling 91E? EURO atleast forms the system from 91E's remnants when the shear reduces slightly...

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#510 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 27, 2022 10:54 pm

ICON now has a system in the BoC

Image
0 likes   

Cat5James
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 387
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:54 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#511 Postby Cat5James » Fri May 27, 2022 11:00 pm

skyline385 wrote:ICON now has a system in the BoC

https://i.imgur.com/Sib6T0W.png


Fourth model now on board. Next week should be fun.
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#512 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 27, 2022 11:29 pm

Cat5James wrote:
skyline385 wrote:ICON now has a system in the BoC

https://i.imgur.com/Sib6T0W.png


Fourth model now on board. Next week should be fun.


EURO, ICON and CMC all show a similar broad low pressure system forming from the remnants of 91E on interaction with the Yucatan peninsula. Meanwhile, GFS is off on its forming a new system from a CAG which absorbs the remnants.

GFS is having a really poor year honestly with busts in WPAC, IO and NATL.
1 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#513 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 28, 2022 2:09 am

Slower but stronger 0Z EURO at 988mb

Image
Last edited by skyline385 on Sat May 28, 2022 3:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9593
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#514 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 28, 2022 3:10 am

988mb on a strengthening Euro.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9593
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#515 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 28, 2022 3:12 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9593
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#516 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 28, 2022 6:41 am

Now with 20% gradual development in 5 days.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#517 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 7:01 am

The model runs for BOC can be posted at the thread now open for that area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p2968513
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 686
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#518 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat May 28, 2022 10:07 am

In addition to the potential crossover from the remnants of Agatha, models are hinting at a disturbance forming in the Bahamas/East of Florida which could spin up into something weak.
Image
Image

We'll throw HWRF in there for good measure lol (top right)
Image
2 likes   
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#519 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat May 28, 2022 10:23 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:In addition to the potential crossover from the remnants of Agatha, models are hinting at a disturbance forming in the Bahamas/East of Florida which could spin up into something weak.
https://i.ibb.co/ZGq6YmL/gfs-z850-vort-seus-fh72-144.gif
https://i.ibb.co/Cmb3H6J/ecmwf-z850-vort-seus-fh93-138.gif

We'll throw HWRF in there for good measure lol (top right)
https://i.ibb.co/wYKp6Nj/hwrf-p-z850-vort-01-E-43.png


Maybe this season is sacrificing a pre-season start in favor of a highly active June :D

If those two storms go on to form and become named, we'll only need two more June storms to tie for most active June on record :D , interesting to see that Bahamas feature and the BoC feature.
3 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#520 Postby Teban54 » Sat May 28, 2022 12:44 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:In addition to the potential crossover from the remnants of Agatha, models are hinting at a disturbance forming in the Bahamas/East of Florida which could spin up into something weak.
https://i.ibb.co/ZGq6YmL/gfs-z850-vort-seus-fh72-144.gif
https://i.ibb.co/Cmb3H6J/ecmwf-z850-vort-seus-fh93-138.gif

We'll throw HWRF in there for good measure lol (top right)
https://i.ibb.co/wYKp6Nj/hwrf-p-z850-vort-01-E-43.png


Maybe this season is sacrificing a pre-season start in favor of a highly active June :D

If those two storms go on to form and become named, we'll only need two more June storms to tie for most active June on record :D , interesting to see that Bahamas feature and the BoC feature.

Imagine Earl beating Elsa's record for the earliest 5th storm, which itself beat Edouard's record, which itself beat Emily's record. :D

OK, I'm getting ahead of myself here.
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Camerooski and 60 guests