2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

GFS solution doesn't look too bad now. A highly-sheared subtropical low passing near Bermuda. This system will be dealing with lots of westerly wind shear.

[Jr0d]

GFS solution doesn't look too bad now. A highly-sheared subtropical low passing near Bermuda. This system will be dealing with lots of westerly wind shear.

Do you think a faster easterly component like the GFS is showing more likely than a slower solution like the EURO is suggesting?

**May have answered myself, as the latest EURO is closer to the GFS with an elongated low moving east quicker**

[Cat5James]

GFS solution doesn't look too bad now. A highly-sheared subtropical low passing near Bermuda. This system will be dealing with lots of westerly wind shear.

Do you think a faster easterly component like the GFS is showing more likely than a slower solution like the EURO is suggesting?

**May have answered myself, as the latest EURO is closer to the GFS with an elongated low moving east quicker**

Euro still delayed and slower compared to GFS. CMC in the middle

[Jr0d]

Euro still delayed and slower compared to GFS. CMC in the middle

EURO is a bit faster this run, CMC is much faster than previous runs....

GFS was the outlier, not so much any more.

Still a lot of time and nothing to watch yet..

[TallyTracker]

In addition to the potential crossover from the remnants of Agatha, models are hinting at a disturbance forming in the Bahamas/East of Florida which could spin up into something weak.
https://i.ibb.co/ZGq6YmL/gfs-z850-vort-seus-fh72-144.gif
https://i.ibb.co/Cmb3H6J/ecmwf-z850-vort-seus-fh93-138.gif

We'll throw HWRF in there for good measure lol (top right)
https://i.ibb.co/wYKp6Nj/hwrf-p-z850-vort-01-E-43.png

Maybe this season is sacrificing a pre-season start in favor of a highly active June

If those two storms go on to form and become named, we'll only need two more June storms to tie for most active June on record , interesting to see that Bahamas feature and the BoC feature.

Imagine Earl beating Elsa's record for the earliest 5th storm, which itself beat Edouard's record, which itself beat Emily's record.

OK, I'm getting ahead of myself here.

This is why I love Storm2K…already talking about the E storm even before the A storm forms!

[Category5Kaiju]

With Agatha and the potential Atlantic system, I did not really bother much looking out in GFS fantasyland for a bit, but after viewing the 18z run, let's just say that there's going to be quite a bit of GoM fun in mid-June

[toad strangler]

With Agatha and the potential Atlantic system, I did not really bother much looking out in GFS fantasyland for a bit, but after viewing the 18z run, let's just say that there's going to be quite a bit of GoM fun in mid-June

300 hour plus. It's good you are laughing!

[PTrackerLA]

With Agatha and the potential Atlantic system, I did not really bother much looking out in GFS fantasyland for a bit, but after viewing the 18z run, let's just say that there's going to be quite a bit of GoM fun in mid-June

300 hour plus. It's good you are laughing!

I'd discount that for now, the GFS showed a major hurricane impacting the gulf coast in it's runs several days this weekend roughly 2 weeks ago .

[kevin]

00z GEFS ensemble. Besides the potential Alex system the long-term ensemble shows a few members with a TD/TS in the Gulf, all landfalling in Mexico. This is a different feature than Alex and only forms beyond +240. In the same timeframe the ensemble also shows some Caribbean cruisers. But in the short-term it seems like Alex and a possible weak system northeast of the Bahamas (the latter has little model support though, 15 members sub-1010mb and only 3 members with 30+ kt winds) look to be the only chances for tropical storms.



Bahamas feature:

[cycloneye]

Changes to GFS that began with the 12z run of 6/1/22.



https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/chang ... sition.php

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1532031473351532544

[SFLcane]

I'm sure that'll work out better than the last one.

[skyline385]

I'm sure that'll work out better than the last one.

Is every system going to aim for FL this year lol? Even the phantom CAG from few days back had a good number of runs towards peninsular FL...

[skyline385]

Long range signal both on GFS and EPS, coincides with the next wave expected

[CourierPR]

Several months ago, I saw a podcast by two TV Meteorologists, one of whom is with an Orlando station in Florida. They had devised a system for predicting the tracks of storms this season. What we have seen with 91L and the above models coincides with their thinking for this season.

[skyline385]

12Z runs, more members in the GoM/BoC

[Blown Away]

Several months ago, I saw a podcast by two TV Meteorologists, one of whom is with an Orlando station in Florida. They had devised a system for predicting the tracks of storms this season. What we have seen with 91L and the above models coincides with their thinking for this season.

Lezak Reoccuring Cycle (LRC).

There is a post about the LRC. I think PTC1’s Low qualifies meeting their June low.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles are looking a bit interesting in the 10-15 day range.

[skyline385]

The operational 18Z GFS has two more potential Cat 2/3 systems in the EPAC lol, kinda hilarious if the EPAC manages 3 strong systems before the NATL figures itself out

[Cpv17]

The operational 18Z GFS has two more potential Cat 2/3 systems in the EPAC lol, kinda hilarious if the EPAC manages 3 strong systems before the NATL figures itself out

With the current setup (ofc it can change being this far out) regarding the ridging, it looks like anything that does develop would go into Mexico or deep STX. I don’t really believe what the GFS is saying about the active Pacific. Doubt that comes to fruition.

[Yellow Evan]

The operational 18Z GFS has two more potential Cat 2/3 systems in the EPAC lol, kinda hilarious if the EPAC manages 3 strong systems before the NATL figures itself out

I mean climatologically speaking that wouldn’t be that unusual as the EPAC peak is much broader than the Atlantic.