2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SoupBone]

Looks like a bogus GFS run at 18z GFS.

How so?

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a bogus GFS run at 18z GFS.

How so?

Convective feedback issues probably or whatever it's called. Look how it instantly shrinks a massive wave into a very small deep vort.

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS hour 156 is the weakest in many runs regarding the lead AEW. Also, this is continuing a three run in a row trend toward weak. It seems like the GFS is giving into the Euro and other models regarding this AEW though I'm not 100% certain about this yet. Other opinions?

Update: The 0Z GFS has no TC in the entire basin through 240 and has the least activity since the 0Z 8/16 run.

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC has become much more bullish with three systems by day 9.


GFS through 240 hours much more bearish run here. starts to take off after though and it does not completely drop any of the areas of interest.

[Teban54]

And just like that, at 270 hours GFS develops a TC immediately after it leaves Africa

[Stormcenter]

Garbage run maybe? I wouldn’t be surprised if
it pops back up on the next run.

0Z GFS hour 156 is the weakest in many runs regarding the lead AEW. Also, this is continuing a three run in a row trend toward weak. It seems like the GFS is giving into the Euro and other models regarding this AEW though I'm not 100% certain about this yet. Other opinions?

Update: The 0Z GFS has no TC in the entire basin through 240 and has the least activity since the 0Z 8/16 run.

[Kingarabian]

0Z GFS hour 156 is the weakest in many runs regarding the lead AEW. Also, this is continuing a three run in a row trend toward weak. It seems like the GFS is giving into the Euro and other models regarding this AEW though I'm not 100% certain about this yet. Other opinions?

Update: The 0Z GFS has no TC in the entire basin through 240 and has the least activity since the 0Z 8/16 run.

IMO maybe some differences in the -VP200 progression.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah, there's something really funky about that last GFS run. Not sure if it is related to a difference in the VP propagation or if it's something else (from what I can tell, those are some pretty wet, robust waves coming off of Africa- not sure why they don't develop..), but I am willing to bet that this run was just an isolated case and that in a future run, the GFS will be back to spawning some terrifying storms again. Also note how it spawns a very powerful typhoon as well (not sure how reliable that is)

From what I can tell, nothing about these cycles of runs seems to suggest anything out of the ordinary; iirc, even in years like 2017 and 2019, mid-August runs featured this kind of behavior by the models where they would develop some big storm, drop it, develop it again, drop everything, and so forth

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET is another with no TC through 144 hours

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS is still rather active near FL/Gulf very late month. fwiw.
0Z Euro: no TC entire run anywhere.

[skyline385]

Looks like both GEFS and EPS and falling back to a Western system after busting out on the East coast runner, hard to take them seriously with how this season has been going and the number of times ensembles have been backtracking. Need to see something on the operational model too supporting this.

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[kevin]

ICON is very enthusiastic with the MDR run and shows the disturbance becoming a TS while still over land in Africa . Apparently it did the same in the 00z run. I know the euro can sometimes be a bit too enthusiastic about forming disturbances while still over land, but I don't know whether ICON usually has a similar bias.

[Yellow Evan]

ICON does.

[aspen]

06z GFS is also quiet, even though the waves that became hurricanes in previous runs are still present. The 00z run had four noticeable waves roll off of Africa in the span of a week; it would be surprising if nothing significant came out of any of them.

Also the WCar/Gulf system has been missing for the last few runs and was probably just another phantom from a random piece of Venezuelan vorticity.

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS still somewhat bullish...

[Spacecoast]

0Z GEFS is still rather active near FL/Gulf very late month. fwiw.
0Z Euro: no TC entire run anywhere.

For the last few GEFS runs, a significant number of members appear to originate NE of Venezuela (circled in red).
Are these related to the AEW wave (black), or are they a separate disturbance?

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/q7NlaYe.png
06z GEFS still somewhat bullish...

Florida is under assault, net week we should start to see some real development, at least in the models inside of 240.

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS is still rather active near FL/Gulf very late month. fwiw.
0Z Euro: no TC entire run anywhere.

For the last few GEFS runs, a significant number of members appear to originate NE of Venezuela (circled in red).
Are these related to the AEW wave (black), or are they a separate disturbance?
https://i.ibb.co/5nJHsLR/ce.jpg

You have a very good eye. This thing off S America is separate from the AEW now just off Africa and is actually well west of it when it shows up starting in just 72 hours. Not first having seen what you wrote here, I had just posted at another board the following:

"For FL/Gulf coast, this 6Z GEFS is back to being close to the most active GEFS run yet, which was previously the 6Z GEFS from yesterday.

But there's something a bit different about this run. Whereas the other active late month runs near FL were dominated by the AEW currently just off Africa and this newest one also has some activity from that AEW, this one is more dominated by something that seems to come off of S America (near Suriname) in only 72 hours (8/21), which is well in front of the wave now just off Africa. So, I wonder whether or not these TCs that originate off S America are bogus since they hadn't shown up before. Any opinions?"

I see that the poster Aspen seems to think this stuff originating off S America is bogus.

[SFLcane]

Really? Thats what 5 hurricanes into SFL.. Operational models are dead but ensembles are crazy.

[SFLcane]

Not sure what the GEFS is thinking but we will find out.