2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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MetroMike
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2281 Postby MetroMike » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Tropical Tidbits has a unusual message, never seen anything like that before.

Due to high traffic this week, you may experience slow page and image load times


It happens in times like this, will not get any better as we get this named.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2282 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:56 am

Some hints of a potential low-rider?



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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2283 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:08 am

Someone found this in the EPAC on the 6z GFS :lol:

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1572918201767395329


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2284 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:23 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2285 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:46 pm

Question, since you all do such a good job of watching the long range model runs. Obviously, I am not going to hold anyone to this, but I'm in SE FL and will be out of town Oct 5-12. Whenever I leave during hurricane season, knowing things can spin up quickly around here, I keep a close eye on what's going on so I know whether I should bring in my balcony furniture. Had to do this due to the potential with Isaias last year. I'm not usually gone for this long during the season, though.

Have there been any models recently that show anything near SFL from 10/5-10/12? I see today that GFS has something near eastern Cuba way out on the 12th, but if that amounts to anything I should theoretically be back home before anything. I'd rather not take all that junk in, but if there's any rumblings of something I usually try to be safe with it as I don't want my chairs and tables flying around.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2286 Postby jonj2040 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:40 pm

All eyes are on Ian, but I snuck peek at the long range models
The Gfs spins up two storms within the next 11 days, one right off the coast, and another in the Easter Caribbean that head for Honduras. After checking the other models, The GFS is the only one to show these, so take it for what it's worth.

[Img]
Image
upload
[/img]
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2287 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:59 pm

jonj2040 wrote:All eyes are on Ian, but I snuck peek at the long range models
The Gfs spins up two storms within the next 11 days, one right off the coast, and another in the Easter Caribbean that head for Honduras. After checking the other models, The GFS is the only one to show these, so take it for what it's worth.

[url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Bg5yxcY/Screenshot-20220928-193139-Chrome.jpg [/url]
upload
[/url]

The 12z CMC does show the same Caribbean disturbance as the GFS. Seems to be a wave that emerges in the next 24 hours. After Ian, such a wave will need to be monitored very closely.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2288 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:12 pm

Image
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2289 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:16 pm

SFLcane wrote:Image
Ukmet will get a little more notice than a week ago
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2290 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:24 pm

Seems the switch has flipped for real it seems.

Season just getting started!
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2291 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:28 pm


You can see a couple of members from the eastern MDR system in that gif. It’s been on the GEFS ensembles for a couple of runs now, slowly getting stronger. The 12z EPS has a bit of support for it too.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2292 Postby blp » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:30 pm

SFLcane wrote:Seems the switch has flipped for real it seems.

Season just getting started!


Yeah I am worried the about band getting back together with a similar setup to Ian. Looks like a sleeper wave creeps into the W.Carribean at the climatology peak in that area.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2293 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:33 pm

blp wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Seems the switch has flipped for real it seems.

Season just getting started!


Yeah I am worried the about band getting back together with a similar setup to Ian. Looks like a sleeper wave creeps into the W.Carribean at the climatology peak in that area.


Very early still, but from the looks if it that wave develops even earlier than Ian and does not have much of a northward component. Could theoretically explode in the WCAR if conditions permit, but who knows
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2294 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:53 pm

GEPS has something too in the long-range. Definitely need to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean as we head into October:

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2295 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:55 pm

gatorcane wrote:GEPS has something too in the long-range. Definitely need to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean as we head into October:

https://i.postimg.cc/hGC1Mr2X/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh294-384.gif


I really hope whatever on earth that is doesn't go north and hit SW Florida. That would be an absolute calamity, with damage being topped on top of what Ian just inflicted :double:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2296 Postby jonj2040 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:00 pm

gatorcane wrote:GEPS has something too in the long-range. Definitely need to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean as we head into October.



Yeah growing up here in FL, it has become apparent that any development in sw Cribb. Needs a watchful eye as "NE into FL" is one of the common paths. Albeit, the most common seems to be straight into Central America. That's just based on memory not on any real comp of data.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2297 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:09 pm

There is some support for two potential systems:
1. A wave that leaves Africa around 10/2. Both GFS and Euro ensembles have moderate support for this to develop while on a NNW-NW recurve path. While most have a TS, some strong members make it a hurricane.
2. A wave that enters Caribbean around 10/9. There have been some sporadic signals in the Caribbean for a few runs, but as others noted above, 18z GEFS is perhaps the most bullish and most organized to date.

18z GEFS:
Image

12z EPS (there's some signal for the Caribbean wave):
Image

18z operational GFS today shows both systems for the first time:
Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2298 Postby MetroMike » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:57 pm

Hope Ian didn’t kick off a mean end to the season when we were questioning weather Fiona would be the last.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2299 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:12 am

0z GFS has a hurricane that forms in the eastern MDR and recurves very quickly but comes dangerously close to the Cabo Verde islands. It forms in about 5 days on this run so if it continues I think the NHC might highlight that area pretty soon.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2300 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:46 am

00z ECMWF with a MDR cruiser.

Image
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