2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

skyline385 · #481 Postby **skyline385** » Thu May 26, 2022 2:04 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Definitely looking like something is going to pop up in the BoC in the coming week from the energy associated with would-be Agatha. Good model support.

I am not sure about that honestly, EPS members are all over the place shifting every run and even decreased in the last run. Meanwhile, the GFS as usual forms a system off a CAG and doesn't have many members in the BoC at all.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220526/3cdf42269a335b7e338b8dc8fd02ceef.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220526/550109fb94350ad5a19ba132f9bee94c.jpg

EPS being wishy-washy isn't anything new, in all honesty. These crossover scenarios are always complex to forecast.

Here is the answer to why the EPS members were dropping off. We might see model support further drop off, 12Z EURO doesnt develop it any longer.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1529894913604825100

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1529905302656667652

Hurricaneman · #482 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu May 26, 2022 2:05 pm

I wouldn’t be surprised if a system does form and is like Arlene in 2005, Debby in 2012 or Andrea in 2013 not to mention Alberto in 1994 or Allison in 1995

DorkyMcDorkface · #483 Postby **DorkyMcDorkface** » Thu May 26, 2022 4:07 pm

Think the EPS might be latching on to an entirely different disturbance in the Western Caribbean rather than redeveloping the remnants of 91E in the Bay of Campeche. At least that's the direction most of the members have been shifting towards.

Stormlover1970 · #484 Postby **Stormlover1970** » Thu May 26, 2022 6:31 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:I wouldn’t be surprised if a system does form and is like Arlene in 2005, Debby in 2012 or Andrea in 2013 not to mention Alberto in 1994 or Allison in 1995

This is the time of year to look in the WC for weak sheared systems moving NE into the Gulf

#485 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu May 26, 2022 6:48 pm

Euro shifting to the gfs idea?

skyline385 · #486 Postby **skyline385** » Thu May 26, 2022 7:23 pm

This is a very concentrated GEFS run for something so far out

SconnieCane · #487 Postby **SconnieCane** » Thu May 26, 2022 7:28 pm

For as meteorologically unusual of an occurrence Cristobal was for us, the associated weather was quite unmemorable unless you were a weather nerd who knew it was associated with a warm-core cyclone. Otherwise, it was just a showery, dreary late spring day not unlike the one we're having right now. Given how crazy 2020 was with pre/early-season development in the Atlantic basin, I had forgotten it originated from an EPAC cyclone.

#488 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu May 26, 2022 8:33 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #489 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Fri May 27, 2022 5:58 am

Fwiw gfs shows a low crossing Florida from the east day 5-6 and a second low crossing the southern Florida peninsula day 8. Tropical Depression to Tropical Storm Strength. Euro also shows both weak lows but has the second on day 10 in the SE GOM. Days out and can change- at least it will bring some rain.

#490 Postby **wxman57** » Fri May 27, 2022 6:59 am

Euro doesn't handle TC interactions with land very well. It tends to try to redevelop TCs after a serious land interaction (worldwide). GFS is just plain nuts beyond 3-5 days. Tremendous wind shear all across the Gulf and off the SE U.S. coast next week. Not a good environment for anything but a broad, weak, sheared low.

Nuno · #491 Postby **Nuno** » Fri May 27, 2022 7:23 am

Both GFS and Euro converging on similar solutions. I would be content with some rain out of a sloppy broad low.

#492 Postby **SFLcane** » Fri May 27, 2022 8:29 am

#493 Postby **SFLcane** » Fri May 27, 2022 2:17 pm

Flood gates South Florida! :eek:

#494 Postby **SFLcane** » Fri May 27, 2022 2:24 pm

#495 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri May 27, 2022 2:33 pm

SFLcane wrote:Flood gates South Florida!

We will survive it together.

#496 Postby **SFLcane** » Fri May 27, 2022 2:49 pm

Eps perking up… :double:

skyline385 · #497 Postby **skyline385** » Fri May 27, 2022 3:16 pm

It's just going to be a weak sheared system if it gets here, some rain would definitely be appreciated. Maybe i get a day off from work as well...

ronjon · #498 Postby **ronjon** » Fri May 27, 2022 3:20 pm

Starting to get good consensus in the long range models between GFS, Euro, and CMC on a tropical storm forming near the Yuc and heading NE somewhere between central and south Florida next weekend.

skyline385 · #499 Postby **skyline385** » Fri May 27, 2022 3:24 pm

ronjon wrote:Starting to get good consensus in the long range models between GFS, Euro, and CMC on a tropical storm forming near the Yuc and heading NE somewhere between central and south Florida next weekend.

Most of the GFS runs have it missing SFL as it forms south of Yucatan.

#500 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri May 27, 2022 3:30 pm

skyline385 wrote:It's just going to be a weak sheared system if it gets here, some rain would definitely be appreciated. Maybe i get a day off from work as well...

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220527/710f994de98e89a91ee54d2489d5cc9c.jpg

Classic SFL weather, drought for months and we make up all the missed rainfall in 1 day.