2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#841 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 11:35 am

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#842 Postby mr_coogs » Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:40 pm

12z Euro with a shortie off the coast?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#843 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:43 pm

Surprised no one posted the CMC:
Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#844 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:46 pm

mr_coogs wrote:12z Euro with a shortie off the coast?
https://imgur.com/YVeI94Q

GFS has it too. Doesn’t quite look tropical, but maybe we could get Bonnie out of that.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#845 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Surprised no one posted the CMC:
https://i.imgur.com/XMUzABL.gif


Models always seem to love Hispaniola. I wonder if this is going to be another year where many storms track close to it?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#846 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Surprised no one posted the CMC:
https://i.imgur.com/XMUzABL.gif

Looks like an Elsa 2.0 on that run, with the precursor wave emerging off the coast of Africa tomorrow afternoon.

The models showing two waves in late June/early July does remind me a lot of Elsa. IIRC, there was another wave around the same time with a chance to develop, but only Elsa became a TC.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#847 Postby zzh » Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:02 pm

Image
Euro actually showed 3 waves, with the first one being a TC :D
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#848 Postby zzh » Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:03 pm

Image
12Z EPS. This is giving me some August vibes
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#849 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:34 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ojOrxTl.png
12Z EPS. This is giving me some August vibes


Many members take this into the Gulf which at the minimum seems to suggest that models think there could be a weakness for this to be pulled north/northwest. Need to have a storm first though before we really start talking about potential tracks.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#850 Postby mr_coogs » Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:17 pm

aspen wrote:
mr_coogs wrote:12z Euro with a shortie off the coast?
https://imgur.com/YVeI94Q

GFS has it too. Doesn’t quite look tropical, but maybe we could get Bonnie out of that.


Image

Phase diagram has it warm-core, but asymmetrical, pointing towards a sub-tropical storm perhaps?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#851 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:19 pm

Pretty scary 12Z EPS
Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#852 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:21 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ojOrxTl.png
12Z EPS. This is giving me some August vibes


Many members take this into the Gulf which at the minimum seems to suggest that models think there could be a weakness for this to be pulled north/northwest. Need to have a storm first though before we really start talking about potential tracks.

I think the Euro’s tracks keeping this south of the Greater Antilles and in the Caribbean for its entire life are the more plausible solutions, because so far the Euro’s ridge/HP forecasts have been verifying rather well as opposed to anything the GFS is saying. An Elsa-like track into Hispaniola (CMC) isn’t impossible, but with a strong ridge and fast trades, this wave could develop slower, remain weaker, and not be able to take advantage of any weaknesses in the ridge.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#853 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:22 pm

mr_coogs wrote:
aspen wrote:
mr_coogs wrote:12z Euro with a shortie off the coast?
https://imgur.com/YVeI94Q

GFS has it too. Doesn’t quite look tropical, but maybe we could get Bonnie out of that.


https://i.imgur.com/FN6Ujg2.png

Phase diagram has it warm-core, but asymmetrical, pointing towards a sub-tropical storm perhaps?

Should be invested soon.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#854 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:56 pm

Image
12z Euro... Hours 111-240...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#855 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:01 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#856 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:48 pm

I’d say something weak just crashing into CA right now would be the most plausible guess imo.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#857 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:32 pm

18z dropped everything lol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#858 Postby Fego » Tue Jun 21, 2022 8:19 pm

GFS 18z being GFS 18z :roll:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#859 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:37 am

GFS and Euro came in with a stronger open Atlantic high this suite. Pushes the first wave into SA. CMC allows it to avoid land with a weaker high and the result is a hurricane in the Caribbean.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#860 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 5:17 am

The 00z euro ensembles are bullish, IMO too bullish.

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