2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#861 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:09 am

cycloneye wrote:The 00z euro ensembles are bullish, IMO too bullish.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/hRw4dRq.jpg

Yea very bullish, especially the full 15 days forecast

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#862 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:18 am

cycloneye wrote:The 00z euro ensembles are bullish, IMO too bullish.

https://i.imgur.com/hRw4dRq.jpg


September called and said get back in your lane late June and early July
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#863 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:28 am

CMC going for a hurricane lol

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#864 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 7:39 am

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#865 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:46 pm

Note= Model runs for the Wave in Eastern Atlantic can be posted there.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#866 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:10 pm

12z GFS, CMC, and ICON all have a system trying to develop in the western Gulf next week, although there are differences in timing and location.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#867 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:32 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:12z GFS, CMC, and ICON all have a system trying to develop in the western Gulf next week, although there are differences in timing and location.

https://i.imgur.com/DQKo7Z4.png
https://i.imgur.com/oOZ5haA.png
https://i.imgur.com/RoHlAn3.png


The 12z GFS is now onboard for a homebrew TC into Texas next week

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#868 Postby Wampadawg » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:08 pm

wxman22 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:12z GFS, CMC, and ICON all have a system trying to develop in the western Gulf next week, although there are differences in timing and location.

https://i.imgur.com/DQKo7Z4.png
https://i.imgur.com/oOZ5haA.png
https://i.imgur.com/RoHlAn3.png


The 12z GFS is now onboard for a homebrew TC into Texas next week

https://i.ibb.co/LrTZmL9/Screenshot-2022-06-24-at-11-09-07-Models-GFS-Pivotal-Weather.png

We’ll we could definitely use a rainmaker here in Houston
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#869 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:11 pm

12Z Canadian also is onboard now

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#870 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:13 pm



I think it is most likely to come onshore in Matagorda, Brazoria, or Galveston Counties. I think this since so many TCs have come onshore at these locations.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#871 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:49 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#872 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:48 pm

I'm pulling for the 12Z GFS to be right about the low moving into Freeport Tuesday night or Wednesday. Have had less than 0.1" of rain in the past month. Could use a few inches.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#873 Postby SoupBone » Fri Jun 24, 2022 4:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm pulling for the 12Z GFS to be right about the low moving into Freeport Tuesday night or Wednesday. Have had less than 0.1" of rain in the past month. Could use a few inches.



We can definitely use some rain, but you aren't thinking anything crazy for this one, right? No last minute tricks?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#874 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:55 pm

SoupBone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm pulling for the 12Z GFS to be right about the low moving into Freeport Tuesday night or Wednesday. Have had less than 0.1" of rain in the past month. Could use a few inches.



We can definitely use some rain, but you aren't thinking anything crazy for this one, right? No last minute tricks?


I'm thinking a weak low pressure area and some rain for areas that really need it (my lawn).
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#875 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm pulling for the 12Z GFS to be right about the low moving into Freeport Tuesday night or Wednesday. Have had less than 0.1" of rain in the past month. Could use a few inches.



We can definitely use some rain, but you aren't thinking anything crazy for this one, right? No last minute tricks?


I'm thinking a weak low pressure area and some rain for areas that really need it (my lawn).


I'm hoping that most areas see 5 inches plus next week. It's been a while since my pond was full. It's about a foot lower than normal right now. Surprisingly, the grass is still alive, but it is dead in places.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#876 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:52 am

12z ICON has a weak system developing in the western MDR/ECar right behind 94L next week. This wave also appeared on the 06z HWRF-P, and I saw some chatter on wx Twitter last night about some EPS support for it.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#877 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 25, 2022 2:20 pm

aspen wrote:12z ICON has a weak system developing in the western MDR/ECar right behind 94L next week. This wave also appeared on the 06z HWRF-P, and I saw some chatter on wx Twitter last night about some EPS support for it.

GFS had this yesterday in its 12z run.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#878 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 25, 2022 8:51 pm

Support is growing for a possible second MDR/ECar system late next week. So far, the only operational model that develops it is the ICON, and even then, it's still very weak.
Image
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Both the EPS and GEFS have some support, with a few sub-1000mb members on the latter.
Image
Image

The HWRF goes nuts (what else is new?) and develops this around the same time as 94L, and they both become strong tropical storms by the end of next week.
Image
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I'm a little skeptical that we could see two back-to-back MDR/ECar storms this early in the year. It'll be interesting to see if any other operational models start showing a named storm out of this. I believe this is the newly introduced Wave 12.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#879 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:24 pm

In regards to the HWRF and other systems outside of its nest, it may be very erroneous.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#880 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:25 pm

I dont know if is an error, but what I know is that 00z GFS has the wave behind 94L hitting Puerto Rico. We still are recuperating from Maria. The good thing is PR is going thru a drought and if that happens is over.
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