2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1037
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#881 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:I dont know if is an error, but what I know is that 00z GFS has the wave behind 94L hitting Puerto Rico. We still are recuperating from Maria.


Looks more like a weak/moderate tropical storm. It also brushes Puerto Rico on the southwestern side. Perhaps a much needed rain event?
0 likes   

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 847
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#882 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:01 am

:eek:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#883 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:08 am

With that ridge it’s only a matter of time before something gets caught up in it this year. :double:

Image
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1709
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#884 Postby sma10 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:11 am

SFLcane wrote:With that ridge it’s only a matter of time before something gets caught up in it this year. :double:

https://i.postimg.cc/02hb8qMv/D4-EB2696-1-D1-D-49-F2-B0-C0-CAC9-AC5-EA0-FE.gif


Ahh... the dreaded WSW turn
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#885 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:15 am

Hurricane Wars Episode VI: Return of the Dorian
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#886 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:18 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I dont know if is an error, but what I know is that 00z GFS has the wave behind 94L hitting Puerto Rico. We still are recuperating from Maria.


Looks more like a weak/moderate tropical storm. It also brushes Puerto Rico on the southwestern side. Perhaps a much needed rain event?


Yes. It ends the drought.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#887 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:20 am

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15424
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#888 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:22 am

Yeah we're gonna need another invest tag for that wave soon. GFS ICON CMC all have it.
4 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3865
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#889 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:21 am

Solid agreement between the GFS and ECM with the wave axis crossing the lesser Antilles late Fri-Fri night and the NE Caribbean Sat-Sun. Whether it consolidates into a low per the GFS vs. the ECM's open wave remains up for debate, however it looks like 'something' will be crossing that area by next weekend.
3 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 416
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#890 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Jun 26, 2022 3:03 am



Wasn't it the HWRF model that had the best track record last year for intensity.

As for the 2 systems I would agree to them forming both have been developing over the last few days while 94L has taken the limelight it's younger and older siblings have been making their way across as well.
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#891 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:44 am

ChrisH-UK wrote:


Wasn't it the HWRF model that had the best track record last year for intensity.

As for the 2 systems I would agree to them forming both have been developing over the last few days while 94L has taken the limelight it's younger and older siblings have been making their way across as well.

It was HMON last year for intensity and seems to be the case this year as well.
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#892 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:49 am

Kingarabian wrote:Yeah we're gonna need another invest tag for that wave soon. GFS ICON CMC all have it.


Except it’s gone! :lol:

Way to much shear apparently. King tutt
0 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 416
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#893 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:16 pm

skyline385 wrote:
ChrisH-UK wrote:


Wasn't it the HWRF model that had the best track record last year for intensity.

As for the 2 systems I would agree to them forming both have been developing over the last few days while 94L has taken the limelight it's younger and older siblings have been making their way across as well.

It was HMON last year for intensity and seems to be the case this year as well.


Ah HMON I stand corrected then.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15424
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#894 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:43 pm

Euro has the wave trailing 94L looking better defined
Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#895 Postby blp » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:02 pm

12z HWRF P

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#896 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:24 pm


The trailing wave is right within outflow from 94L, which is likely why it doesn’t become a strong TS like in yesterday’s 18z run.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#897 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:46 pm

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#898 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:55 pm


94L is weaker through 126hrs, so the trailing wave isn't blasted by shear from 94L's outflow/anticyclone.
Image
Image
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3946
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#899 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Jun 26, 2022 8:17 pm

If it’s within the outflow then likely the HWRF solution is a bit too bullish, but the steering is a bit concerning.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

zzh
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 375
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:18 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#900 Postby zzh » Sun Jun 26, 2022 8:19 pm

Image
The wave behind 94L.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 39 guests