2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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MississippiWx
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#901 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:44 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/EQVBaht.png
The wave behind 94L.


This one looks better organized than 94L currently. The Northern Lesser Antilles and the Greater Antilles should keep an eye on this.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#902 Postby blp » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:38 pm

18z Euro Ensembles much more numerous with the second wave than 12z.

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#903 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:58 pm

A thread has been started for the wave(s) currently in the eastern Atlantic, since that is what the GFS is developing to a small degree. You can post model runs for the wave in that thread

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122742
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#904 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Jul 02, 2022 1:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm beginning to think that we'll see Bonnie form over the 4th of July weekend offshore of the Carolinas, starting out as thunderstorms along the trailing end of a cold front. Very common occurrence in early July. Arthur (2014) formed in early July in the same manner. Not saying a hurricane taking Arthur's track, just that it's the place most likely to produce Bonnie over the next couple of weeks. In addition, I'm taking a vacation day July 5th to have a 4-day weekend. The tropics generally develop a storm to spoil my vacation days. Don't tell the tropics I'm taking tomorrow off.


:double: :notworthy:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#905 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:43 pm

This thread is extremely quiet as the models show nothing out to day 16
Although the models are not very good on genesis beyond 5 or 6 days, I dont
expect much until maybe the last week of July.
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#906 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:03 am

AtlanticWind wrote:This thread is extremely quiet as the models show nothing out to day 16
Although the models are not very good on genesis beyond 5 or 6 days, I dont
expect much until maybe the last week of July.
A quiet period is in the cards fora few weeks then a full on active season into November. Use this time to ensure your genny is up to the task.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#907 Postby kevin » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:43 am

As expected the euro ensembles are looking very empty. If anything forms the next 10 days it'll probably be a Colin-like shortie or some disturbance in the SWCar. But I wouldn't count on it.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#908 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:25 am

GFS had something from in the SW Caribbean and shoot NW.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#909 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:51 am

Kingarabian wrote:GFS had something from in the SW Caribbean and shoot NW.


Weak tropical storm or depression into Matagorda next Thursday per the 6z GFS:

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#910 Postby floridasun » Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:51 pm

tropical suppose wake up our side tropical after july 21
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#911 Postby jconsor » Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:27 am

Slow-moving system expected to develop near central Gulf coast Mon needs to be watched carefully. Unlikely to become a pure tropical cyclone, but could take on a warm core. Rain/flooding impacts could be significant from LA to NW FL Mon-Wed, and possibly further up through the southeast and toward the mid-Atlantic coast mid to late next week.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1545422901754593280




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1545424738092294146




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1545426914071937026


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#912 Postby SoupBone » Fri Jul 08, 2022 12:16 pm

jconsor wrote:Slow-moving system expected to develop near central Gulf coast Mon needs to be watched carefully. Unlikely to become a pure tropical cyclone, but could take on a warm core. Rain/flooding impacts could be significant from LA to NW FL Mon-Wed, and possibly further up through the southeast and toward the mid-Atlantic coast mid to late next week.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1545422901754593280

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1545424738092294146

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1545426914071937026



Any chance some of it meanders toward Texas?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#913 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jul 08, 2022 12:38 pm

SoupBone wrote:
jconsor wrote:Slow-moving system expected to develop near central Gulf coast Mon needs to be watched carefully. Unlikely to become a pure tropical cyclone, but could take on a warm core. Rain/flooding impacts could be significant from LA to NW FL Mon-Wed, and possibly further up through the southeast and toward the mid-Atlantic coast mid to late next week.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1545422901754593280

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1545424738092294146

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1545426914071937026



Any chance some of it meanders toward Texas?


I’m sure this stupid death ridge won’t allow it.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#914 Postby ronjon » Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:56 pm

Something to watch..appears to form off the tail end of a trough near Mobile Bay. Euro actually strengthening it over land as it gets tangled up with some upper level energy moving it east northeast through Georgia and Carolinas. Euro forms another broad low off the FL panhandle next weekend so seems to be persistent area of troughiness over northern gulf coast next week.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#915 Postby ronjon » Sat Jul 09, 2022 4:12 pm

12z ICON develops 1005 mb low near Mobile later this week. 12z Euro continues development of this low and shunts it NE while again developing a second low next Saturday in the NE GOM. Going to have to watch these tail end of trough lows...one might get going the next week.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#916 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jul 09, 2022 5:21 pm

ronjon wrote:12z ICON develops 1005 mb low near Mobile later this week. 12z Euro continues development of this low and shunts it NE while again developing a second low next Saturday in the NE GOM. Going to have to watch these tail end of trough lows...one might get going the next week.


Exactly, I'm not sure how far the trough is going to dig and these lows often form a little further southwest of where you might think...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#917 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Jul 09, 2022 5:22 pm

ronjon wrote:12z ICON develops 1005 mb low near Mobile later this week. 12z Euro continues development of this low and shunts it NE while again developing a second low next Saturday in the NE GOM. Going to have to watch these tail end of trough lows...one might get going the next week.

18z GFS briefly spins up this low over the marshes of SELA.
Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#918 Postby jconsor » Tue Jul 12, 2022 8:24 am

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#919 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2022 12:38 pm

Well, very long range from GFS around July 26-27 when it has a strong wave that has a low pressure down to 1005 mbs, but later it weakens.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#920 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Jul 12, 2022 11:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:Well, very long range from GFS around July 26-27 when it has a strong wave that has a low pressure down to 1005 mbs, but later it weakens.

https://i.imgur.com/sO4zh4F.gif

Conditions are set to become unfavorable by the end of July so not surprised by that.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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