2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1101 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:30 am

Blown Away wrote::uarrow: Many category 1/2 hurricanes moving towards the Northeast Caribbean

Sooner or later and the ridge has been in lockdown mode for a month now, not good for the east coast of the united states.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1102 Postby skyline385 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:35 am

Looks like EURO has started to back pedal again, barely any member from the EPS developed in the 0Z run.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1103 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:43 am

skyline385 wrote:Looks like EURO has started to back pedal again, barely any member from the EPS developed in the 0Z run.

Image
ECENS 00z

Image
ECENS 12z

ECENS 00z/12z about the same for the MDR low and 00z backed off CONUS east coast low a bit. Overall a moderate signal at best, surely not a strong signal for either low.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1104 Postby skyline385 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:52 am

The one on weathermodels doesnt show the full run. Very few members if any are developing in the MDR on the 0Z run. I think Danielle is going to be a system off the SE coast which is also on the GFS.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1105 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:41 am

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1106 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:40 pm

GFs is getting stronger vorticity on the gulf low that’s currently under Louisiana…. Homebrew??
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1107 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:49 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:GFs is getting stronger vorticity on the gulf low that’s currently under Louisiana…. Homebrew??


Heck yes....it's going to happen! Big low sitting in central Texas please. :D
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1108 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:14 pm

The 12Z EPS is a little more active with the MDR wave than was the 0Z though not quite as active as yesterday's 12Z. It wouldn't at all surprise me if this wave ends up becoming an MDR TC.

*Edit: On second look, maybe not more active than the 0Z there. It looked more active to me on tidbits, but not on weathernerds.

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1109 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:47 pm

lrak wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:GFs is getting stronger vorticity on the gulf low that’s currently under Louisiana…. Homebrew??


Heck yes....it's going to happen! Big low sitting in central Texas please. :D


Local GOM buoys have been bobbing down to 29.94 then back over 30 one ship report lower than that but its a little dry, no model support and we would need to see a buoy go below 29.8 before I would jump.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1110 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:55 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:GFs is getting stronger vorticity on the gulf low that’s currently under Louisiana…. Homebrew??


Maybe some scattered showers for southeast Texas tomorrow and Saturday that’s about it. Be lucky to even get that.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1111 Postby skyline385 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:08 pm

Happy hour GEFS decided to wake up

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1112 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:27 pm

skyline385 wrote:Happy hour GEFS decided to wake up

https://i.imgur.com/ZMbF1s1.png


…And decided to go for that ever-elusive Georgia strike, I see. All jokes aside- I imagine we’ll be seeing more active ensembles in the upcoming days from both the GEFS and EPS. August usually starts off unfavorably… until it very quickly isn’t.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1113 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:30 pm

skyline385 wrote:Happy hour GEFS decided to wake up

https://i.imgur.com/ZMbF1s1.png


Tell it to go back to bed. I'll gladly pass on that 18Z GEFS member showing the worst storm here since 1898.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1114 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:38 am

Image
06 GFS... Moves the TW over Africa into NE Caribbean maybe as a TD/TS then into SE Bahamas with ridging building back in in the very long range... Ensembles moderately been supporting this TW for a few runs.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1115 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 05, 2022 11:46 am

I found the hurricane guys... :lol:

Atlantic is a plie of wasteland right now. Huge wavebreaking! Wake me up when something interesting pops up.

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1116 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Aug 05, 2022 11:49 am

SFLcane wrote:I found the hurricane guys... :lol:

Atlantic is a plie of wasteland right now. Huge wavebreaking! Wake me up when something interesting pops up.

https://i.postimg.cc/KYVTfTzx/gfs.gif


definitely not gonna take an op GFS run verbatim, but such a solution would annihilate the trade winds.

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1117 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 05, 2022 11:50 am

SFLcane wrote:I found the hurricane guys... :lol:

Atlantic is a plie of wasteland right now. Huge wavebreaking! Wake me up when something interesting pops up.

https://i.postimg.cc/KYVTfTzx/gfs.gif

Incoming inactive season.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1118 Postby NotSparta » Fri Aug 05, 2022 11:57 am

SFLcane wrote:I found the hurricane guys... :lol:

Atlantic is a plie of wasteland right now. Huge wavebreaking! Wake me up when something interesting pops up.

https://i.postimg.cc/KYVTfTzx/gfs.gif


Uh, that's a cutoff low. Ironically it actually makes the MDR more favorable for a little bit. Shear is restricted a little too far north to really affect the MDR, and the cutoff low in place of the usual anticyclonic wavebreaking means the dry air train shuts off briefly and allows the tropics to moisten up. Of course a low like that in the subtropics probably would not favor tropical development but it's not the same set of conditions we're used to so far this season
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1119 Postby hcane27 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 12:14 pm

Could be that the “base state initialization” process needs a whole lot of work to be accurate enough to realistically forecast with. Kind of like forecasting using a forecast. A lot of inherent flaws.
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1120 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 12:30 pm

hcane27 wrote:Could be that the “base state initialization” process needs a whole lot of work to be accurate enough to realistically forecast with. Kind of like forecasting using a forecast. A lot of inherent flaws.

Any model needs current data to work off, no model can run without current data so if current conditions have been favourable for 2-3 weeks then the model is going to run off it and we will get a very bullish solution. Its not using a forecast to forecast but rather just the current conditions without any historical context to forecast.

Maybe one day, models could be designed to incorporate more historical data but as someone with a background in CFD, i don’t see how you can even do that. There is only so much data you can feed a model to initialise. The way such models typically work is that they take the mean of the historical data to forecast the first time-step. The average then moves one time-step forward using the forecasted data and the process continues.


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