2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2241 Postby skyline385 » Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:11 pm

BobHarlem wrote:18z GFS showing this in the eastern Gulf in about 12-14 days. Forms from the phantom storm generator off Columbia/South America. A few earlier runs hinted at something there too, but this is the first time it has shown a hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/V6lAgks.png


Unless the other models start showing something I think we can ignore Caribbean activity on the GFS at max range.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2242 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 10, 2022 10:46 pm

skyline385 wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:18z GFS showing this in the eastern Gulf in about 12-14 days. Forms from the phantom storm generator off Columbia/South America. A few earlier runs hinted at something there too, but this is the first time it has shown a hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/V6lAgks.png


Unless the other models start showing something I think we can ignore Caribbean activity on the GFS at max range.


The thing is the GFS is known for monsoon gyres when in fact most of the time it produces phantom cyclones but it has a monsoon gyre but doesn’t develop anything until the wave SW of the CV islands runs into it so we’ll see
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2243 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:28 pm

 Here's something that's very rare during peak season: 0Z UKMET has NOTHING!

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.09.2022


NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 144 HOURS
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2244 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 11, 2022 2:04 am

You know something has gone wrong this season when its peak season and GFS doesn't have anything in the Caribbean/Gulf at max range :D

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2245 Postby canebeard » Sun Sep 11, 2022 2:33 am

The peak of hurricane season is upon us. Rejoice ! ?


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2246 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 11, 2022 8:08 am

CMC has loved this system to develop in the MDR by around the September 20 timeframe in multiple plast runs. Curious to see if that is yet another failure or if it may actually be onto something there (if the latter ends up true, then, um, wow). :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2247 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 11, 2022 9:55 am

Wow look how unfavorable the Gulf and Caribbean are right now looking at the GFS wind shear forecast: :double:

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2248 Postby cane5 » Sun Sep 11, 2022 10:23 am

skyline385 wrote:You know something has gone wrong this season when its peak season and GFS doesn't have anything in the Caribbean/Gulf at max range :D

https://i.imgur.com/gL6xMRW.png


I think we are looking at October now. Remember Wilma emerged off the yucatán and hit South Florida. Cape Verdes are close to done.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2249 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 11, 2022 10:50 am

canebeard wrote:The peak of hurricane season is upon us. Rejoice ! ?


https://i.imgur.com/2AL2AMs.png


Looking real good at the moment for a seasonal snoozer but I ain’t partying yet. October can be worse than peak season in my neck of the woods. But today I like what I see!
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2250 Postby blp » Sun Sep 11, 2022 11:42 am

What, the CMC shows a W.Carribean system inline with GFS... That is interesting. Can't say the GFS is phantom anymore :eek:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2251 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 11, 2022 12:45 pm

blp wrote:What, the CMC shows a W.Carribean system inline with GFS... That is interesting. Can't say the GFS is phantom anymore :eek:


FWIW there were some members in the same region on the EPS too, still a bit far but atleast it does not seem to look like a typical GFS phantom at the moment

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2252 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:32 pm

How is it possible that the last post in this thread was over a day ago? It's peak season!
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2253 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:49 pm

SoupBone wrote:How is it possible that the last post in this thread was over a day ago? It's peak season!


You already know the answer to that :D

Also most model runs for the wave in the Central Atlantic are going in its own thread
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2254 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:42 am

Latest GFS run is concerning for Sept. 29.
I always feared a late season intense storm
in the Gulf.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2255 Postby Tailgater33 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:09 pm

A little surprised no mention of Boc, I’m on the road so haven’t checked the models. Just Ghcc playing tricks ? I know that it doesn’t take a lot to spin up a tiny system down there
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2256 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:16 pm

Check out the 12z Euro 850 mb vorticity maps. If you look closely, the NE portion of the 240 hour Bahamas low actually is associated with vorticity that is still over Africa, not the low now just offshore Africa, and won't come off til hour 36! I mean this vorticity speeds like a racehorse across the MDR! I know the member tolakram is big on following lower level vorticity. This is pretty fascinating.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2257 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:44 am

While we're concentrating on Invest 96L for good reason, folks should probably at least keep one eye on the AEW that's coming off Africa in ~12 hours. It has been quite active over W Africa as Iceresistance noted. Several models (Euro, ICON, CMC) are now taking this at least to 50W in the MDR. The last 3 Euro runs haven taken it to at least the Lesser Antilles. The latest Euro takes this to just SW of PR as a TS moving WNW at 240 (9/24).
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2258 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 14, 2022 6:56 am

0Z Euro run.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2259 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:41 pm

tolakram wrote:0Z Euro run.

https://i.imgur.com/3XpMJoU.gif


The 12Z Euro is the 4th in a row that has a persistent surface low from the AEW just now leaving Africa. The prior three all hit the Lesser Antilles. This run has it at 15N, 59W, moving toward the LAs as of 168 (Sept 21st) after which it moves into the Caribbean as a very weak low:

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2260 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:04 pm

LarryWx wrote:
tolakram wrote:0Z Euro run.

https://i.imgur.com/3XpMJoU.gif


The 12Z Euro is the 4th in a row that has a persistent surface low from the AEW just now leaving Africa. The prior three all hit the Lesser Antilles. This run has it at 15N, 59W, moving toward the LAs as of 168 (Sept 21st) after which it moves into the Caribbean as a very weak low:

https://i.imgur.com/GPabJeq.png

End of this 12Z Euro has it as a very weak low near 16N, 70W, moving W making it the 4th Euro run in a row to make it at least to the LAs:
Image


Those 12Z EPS members at 240 which are located from NE of PR to the LAs to those MHs NE of the Leewards as well as those S of PR and Hisp. in the Caribbean are actually from this AEW that's now just off Africa rather than from 96L.
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