Climo says that it is too late in the season for anything to form in the Gulf. However, it also says that there's a lingering slight chance that something will form in the SW Caribbean in any one season in mid to late November, especially in La Niña. The 2016 La Niña season had Otto form on November 20th there and he became a MH that impacted Central America.
Fwiw, the 12Z GFS is the 4th run in a row with a TCG in the SW Caribbean this weekend. The 12Z CMC also has a low but it stays very weak. The 12Z ICON, 0Z Euro, and 0Z UKMET have (virtually) nothing. So, it may very well be just convective feedback on the GFS. For now, I'm keeping this as a nonzero but only slight chance. Posted below is the link for formations and tracks for November 11th-20th for the period 1851-2015..adding 2016's Otto to this makes 8 in the SW Caribbean or one every 21 years on average to form there then. Just considering La Niña seasons, I'd wild guess it at closer to about one every ten there. So, if there's going to be a mid November TCG, that would be the most likely location:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_11_20.pngEdit:
Mid-November La Niña TCG in SW Caribbean since 1851:
-Otto 2016
-Laura 1971
-#20 of 1933
-#15 of 1916
Per Eric Webb's tables, there have been ~46 La Niña seasons since 1851. So, 4/46 or once every eleven La Niña seasons has had a mid-November SW Caribbean TCG. So, a small but nontrivial chance.
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The 12Z GEFS is one of the most active in the SW Caribbean this weekend with several members as hurricanes or strong TSs.