2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like a nor'easter to me, the way it interacts with the jet leads me to believe it's at the very least totally extratropical

With it forming on the 6Z GFS over 29-30 C waters east of NC by Tuesday and with it then staying over 29-30 C SSTs for 12 hours afterward along with waters that don't get below 26 C til off of central NJ (40N), I disagree that this is totally extratropical as depicted on the 6Z GFS.

This evolution in the upper levels suggests it's anything but tropical. Looks about as you'd expect for a nor'easter type storm. Those waters might mean it has nice convection in spots but it still looks extratropical

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1008044802585137262/phasing_troughs.gif

That looks subtropical, not extra tropical. That’s 200mb air levels. Only powerful tropical systems appear in the 200mb air levels. I think this will have a warm core at the surface with baroclinic forcing taking place towards the end of the cyclone’s life.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1558486663894122496

[NotSparta]

With it forming on the 6Z GFS over 29-30 C waters east of NC by Tuesday and with it then staying over 29-30 C SSTs for 12 hours afterward along with waters that don't get below 26 C til off of central NJ (40N), I disagree that this is totally extratropical as depicted on the 6Z GFS.

This evolution in the upper levels suggests it's anything but tropical. Looks about as you'd expect for a nor'easter type storm. Those waters might mean it has nice convection in spots but it still looks extratropical

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1008044802585137262/phasing_troughs.gif

That looks subtropical, not extra tropical. That’s 200mb air levels. Only powerful tropical systems appear in the 200mb air levels. I think this will have a warm core at the surface with baroclinic forcing taking place towards the end of the cyclone’s life.

Yes, but extratropical systems usually have a good presence at 200mb. This look is consistent with that

[LarryWx]

You don't even think this is a STS considering its origins on Tuesday over 84-86 F SSTs?

It could try to become one but that upper pattern is what you'd see with a nor'easter in the winter. Doesn't inspire confidence of tropical system

Let's see if NHC mentions it at the 2PM TWO.

Luis,
My guess is that it is too soon because only the 6Z/12Z GFS has that dramatic a storm in that location. Now, if the 12Z Euro has something similar and the 18Z GFS is also similar, maybe the 8 PM would have a lemon for at least the potential for a ST depression, if not TD, forming off NC as early as 72 hours out.

[LarryWx]

Well, the 12Z UKMET verbatim (per text) actually has a TC form at hour 102 before going into NE US. It forms at 38.2 N, 71.0 W, where SST is at 29 C:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 38.2N 71.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2022 108 38.9N 69.0W 1005 27
1200UTC 18.08.2022 120 43.3N 69.6W 1000 27
0000UTC 19.08.2022 132 43.7N 69.6W 1002 27
1200UTC 19.08.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro is stronger and closer to the coast kind of similar to the UK. The key here to me is that it trended somewhat with the 6Z/12Z GFS. At hour 96, it looks like it could easily be a STD though it doesn't look tropical at that point.
Edit: 12Z Euro at 120 stronger and hits NE as what imho almost has to have been a NS (probably ST) at least before this image considering the warmth of the SSTs:

[Kingarabian]

Agreed Larry, that this could be the next NS. Just comes down to how the NHC assess the systems characteristics.

[ChrisH-UK]

Just noticed another possible system for next weekend in the Bay of Campeche . Now when you look on the larger scale it doesn't look much but then you look closer at it it shows potential.

[skyline385]

EPS starting to show some activity

[Teban54]

EPS starting to show some activity

https://i.imgur.com/eh0toQE.png

Between 98L, the possible east coast system, the possible BoC system and this (keeping in mind Euro's MDR bias), it surely seems like the tropics is slowly but steadily lighting up. Even if intensity is not there yet.

[aspen]

EPS starting to show some activity

https://i.imgur.com/eh0toQE.png

Third time’s the charm maybe? Both other times the EPS started showing MDR activity — first in late July and then with 97L — it failed to verify and rapidly backed off after a few days.

[skyline385]

EPS starting to show some activity

https://i.imgur.com/eh0toQE.png

Third time’s the charm maybe? Both other times the EPS started showing MDR activity — first in late July and then with 97L — it failed to verify and rapidly backed off after a few days.

Yep Euro has backtracked enough times already and I am already seeing chatter of a northerly bias on wxtwitter because of how high and strong (TS strength) some of those waves are exiting.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS continues to show the potential 8/20 western gulf/BOC system, this time it brings it a little further north then the last few runs. So far none of these runs have it really becoming anything more than a weak TD but it would not surprise me at all if something tries to spin up there around that time.

[skyline385]

0z GFS continues to show the potential 8/20 western gulf/BOC system, this time it brings it a little further north then the last few runs. So far none of these runs have it really becoming anything more than a weak TD but it would not surprise me at all if something tries to spin up there around that time.

Will be very difficult for it to become anything more than a TS honestly (if it even gets there), its entering the Gulf with pockets of dry air on both sides accompanied by high shear.

[Deshaunrob17]

Idk the global deterministic models usually fail on showing pattern change. However the GEFS and GEPS ensembles are usually tropical cyclone friendly this time of the year. The GEPS usually goes nuts with development (even though it's usually wrong). This year both groups of ensembles are showing only weak hints even up to 2 weeks out.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS, Euro, and UKMET have backed way off on the strong low showing up at 12Z going into the NE US. The UKMET backed off from the 12Z's hour 102 TC genesis.

[skyline385]

EPS continues to show more activity but those systems coming out of African as a TS aren’t going to be happening exactly.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Slimbodine]

0z GFS continues to show the potential 8/20 western gulf/BOC system, this time it brings it a little further north then the last few runs. So far none of these runs have it really becoming anything more than a weak TD but it would not surprise me at all if something tries to spin up there around that time.

Will be very difficult for it to become anything more than a TS honestly (if it even gets there), its entering the Gulf with pockets of dry air on both sides accompanied by high shear.

https://i.imgur.com/eMDjpD2.png https://i.imgur.com/uKUQbTL.png

And that is a very good thing. Hope it stays that way until October.

[WiscoWx02]

EPS is starting to wake up a little bit with a more realistic scenario of TCG in the MDR and not over Africa but we’ll see if it’s just one run or not. Probably going to see major drop off on the next run to be honest given how things have been progressing but we’ll see.

[Wampadawg]

0z GFS continues to show the potential 8/20 western gulf/BOC system, this time it brings it a little further north then the last few runs. So far none of these runs have it really becoming anything more than a weak TD but it would not surprise me at all if something tries to spin up there around that time.

Will be very difficult for it to become anything more than a TS honestly (if it even gets there), its entering the Gulf with pockets of dry air on both sides accompanied by high shear.

https://i.imgur.com/eMDjpD2.png https://i.imgur.com/uKUQbTL.png

And that is a very good thing. Hope it stays that way until October.

Could be a “Beta” syndrome