2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Euro and CMC are starting to latch onto a wave that’ll exit Africa around 9/11-9/13. The exact date differs between models and runs. The 12z Euro has its classic MDR/Africa bias and shows the wave developing over land.

Around the same time, the GFS and CMC show a disturbance over Central America that either goes into the EPac (GFS) or Gulf of Mexico (CMC).

12z EPS is going crazy with the 9/13 wave.

Thing is, Euro has a bias of essentially depicting strong TWs as near-TCs while still over Africa. So I'd take it with a grain of salt for now perhaps until a more realistic scenario is depicted, not to mention there's that "Africa barrier" which sometimes occurs when the EPS gets bullish for a wave about to emerge in a few days only to back off dramatically either prior to or right after it hits water.

[LarryWx]

This is a new one on the 12Z UKMET fwiw, which is at a very low latitude moving WNW in the E MDR:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.8N 26.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2022 120 9.8N 26.4W 1009 26
0000UTC 10.09.2022 132 10.6N 30.4W 1009 29
1200UTC 10.09.2022 144 11.4N 34.2W 1008 33

0Z UKMET is the 2nd run in a row with this far south latitude E MDR TC moving WNW. It appears to come off Africa ~Sep 7th and form into a TD on Sep 9th. The 0Z ICON has this as a weak low near 15N, 41W, moving WNW at hour 180 (12Z on 9/12). Keep in mind though that this ICON run also has a cat 4 Earl stuck under a ridge then moving WNW to NW near 68W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N 25.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2022 108 10.9N 25.0W 1009 27
0000UTC 10.09.2022 120 11.1N 29.1W 1008 30
1200UTC 10.09.2022 132 11.6N 32.8W 1007 32
0000UTC 11.09.2022 144 12.5N 36.1W 1007 33

 Edit: African satellite pics look unimpressive making me think this is probably a phantom TD on the UKMET.

[LarryWx]

This is a new one on the 12Z UKMET fwiw, which is at a very low latitude moving WNW in the E MDR:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.8N 26.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2022 120 9.8N 26.4W 1009 26
0000UTC 10.09.2022 132 10.6N 30.4W 1009 29
1200UTC 10.09.2022 144 11.4N 34.2W 1008 33

0Z UKMET is the 2nd run in a row with this far south latitude E MDR TC moving WNW. It appears to come off Africa ~Sep 7th and form into a TD on Sep 9th. The 0Z ICON has this as a weak low near 15N, 41W, moving WNW at hour 180 (12Z on 9/12). Keep in mind though that this ICON run also has a cat 4 Earl stuck under a ridge then moving WNW to NW near 68W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N 25.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2022 108 10.9N 25.0W 1009 27
0000UTC 10.09.2022 120 11.1N 29.1W 1008 30
1200UTC 10.09.2022 132 11.6N 32.8W 1007 32
0000UTC 11.09.2022 144 12.5N 36.1W 1007 33

 Edit: African satellite pics look unimpressive making me think this is probably a phantom TD on the UKMET.

Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS is the most active run with this AEW that comes off Africa within 60-72 hours. Some of these members (5 of 31) get into or near the E Caribbean as a H 9/15-16. It will be interesting to see what happens with Earl if this actually ends up an active AEW as Earl's indirect effects on steering would be significant.

[SFLcane]

This is a new one on the 12Z UKMET fwiw, which is at a very low latitude moving WNW in the E MDR:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.8N 26.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2022 120 9.8N 26.4W 1009 26
0000UTC 10.09.2022 132 10.6N 30.4W 1009 29
1200UTC 10.09.2022 144 11.4N 34.2W 1008 33

0Z UKMET is the 2nd run in a row with this far south latitude E MDR TC moving WNW. It appears to come off Africa ~Sep 7th and form into a TD on Sep 9th. The 0Z ICON has this as a weak low near 15N, 41W, moving WNW at hour 180 (12Z on 9/12). Keep in mind though that this ICON run also has a cat 4 Earl stuck under a ridge then moving WNW to NW near 68W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N 25.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2022 108 10.9N 25.0W 1009 27
0000UTC 10.09.2022 120 11.1N 29.1W 1008 30
1200UTC 10.09.2022 132 11.6N 32.8W 1007 32
0000UTC 11.09.2022 144 12.5N 36.1W 1007 33

 Edit: African satellite pics look unimpressive making me think this is probably a phantom TD on the UKMET.

Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS is the most active run with this AEW that comes off Africa within 60-72 hours. Some of these members (5 of 31) get into or near the E Caribbean as a H 9/15-16. It will be interesting to see what happens with Earl if this actually ends up an active AEW as Earl's indirect effects on steering would be significant.

We’ll…

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

That is the wave some GEFS members develop so it will be interesting to see what happens.

[kevin]

Besides Danielle and Earl most of the future action in the GEFS continues to come from the MDR with at least two separate waves. The second wave is further south and gets some members to the Caribbean and the US near the end of the run.

[aspen]

Besides Danielle and Earl most of the future action in the GEFS continues to come from the MDR with at least two separate waves. The second wave is further south and gets some members to the Caribbean and the US near the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/PimFAF3.png

I count three waves on the GEFS and EPS: the 10/40 AOI, another much weaker wave that emerges sometime in the next few days, and a third that exits in about a week. Both also have ensemble support for a BoC system in 7-10 days…maybe third time’s the charm?

[Category5Kaiju]

Besides Danielle and Earl most of the future action in the GEFS continues to come from the MDR with at least two separate waves. The second wave is further south and gets some members to the Caribbean and the US near the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/PimFAF3.png

What a difference merely days can make in the tropics. Just several days ago, the models showed virtually nothing (not even the 10/40 AOI), making people really doubt the season. Now we're looking at the potential for 3 or so systems in the coming weeks. This is precisely why at least when it comes down to modeling, now-casting and relying only on one batch of models to determine the future (especially when trends aren't even looked at) is not a great idea.

[BobHarlem]

12z icon briefly spins up something in the gulf later this week.

[Hurricaneman]

The wave to come off Africa has a little support and the biggest plus I can see is it’s small compact nature so this one could be one to watch long term

[SFLcane]

This is a robust wave. Gefs could be on to something.

[aspen]

This is a robust wave. Gefs could be on to something.

https://i.postimg.cc/K8nzWz0G/122-ACDDC-226-B-42-AD-A22-C-F1649-A5-E74-F0.gif

I think that’s the 9/6 wave the CMC and Euro turned into a long-tracking MDR hurricane before abruptly dropping it the other day. Neither of their most recent operation runs do much with it, but I think it’s also being picked up by the EPS.

[SFLcane]

This is a robust wave. Gefs could be on to something.

https://i.postimg.cc/K8nzWz0G/122-ACDDC-226-B-42-AD-A22-C-F1649-A5-E74-F0.gif

I think that’s the 9/6 wave the CMC and Euro turned into a long-tracking MDR hurricane before abruptly dropping it the other day. Neither of their most recent operation runs do much with it, but I think it’s also being picked up by the EPS.

This mornings GEFS members that develop it are interesting.

[LarryWx]

This is a robust wave. Gefs could be on to something.

https://i.postimg.cc/K8nzWz0G/122-ACDDC-226-B-42-AD-A22-C-F1649-A5-E74-F0.gif

I think that’s the 9/6 wave the CMC and Euro turned into a long-tracking MDR hurricane before abruptly dropping it the other day. Neither of their most recent operation runs do much with it, but I think it’s also being picked up by the EPS.

This mornings GEFS members that develop it are interesting.

The 12Z GEFS, like the previous two runs, has a good number of strong members from this AEW coming off 9/7-8 with 8 of 31 that become hurricanes. The timing is slightly slower and the mean position a bit NE of the prior two runs meaning less threat to the NE Caribbean.

Is this just a phantom? I wouldn't bet against it, but we don't know yet. What are your latest thoughts? I saw that you think it looks rather impressive over Africa. I didn't see it that way at my last look, but sometimes that is hard to call.

The 12Z UKMET has it for the 3rd time albeit genesis is delayed til hour 144, meaning a 48 hour delay vs the prior two runs (phantom alert!) and still in a similarly pretty far south latitude in the MDR:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.5N 40.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2022 144 12.5N 40.6W 1010 26

[SFLcane]

Larry GEFS control has a hurricane Just north of the NE Caribbean islands.

[Hurricane Mike]

I would watch the wave leaving Africa in a day or two. The long-range GEFS like it as a west runner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDfGvxDd5iw

[LarryWx]

Larry GEFS control has a hurricane Just north of the NE Caribbean islands.

It looks like the 12Z GEFS control (assuming I'm looking at the right member) plunges down to 939 mb SW of Bermuda on 9/20!

Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro has this as a very weak low moving W to WNW at 21N, 57W at hour 240 as of 12Z on 9/15. If this were to be near reality and then develop, it would subsequently probably become a threat to the western basin near 9/18-9/20. You can see that the run slides a rather strong surface/H5 high westward to its north throughout the preceding 7 days keeping it from recurving early and instead taking it toward the western Atlantic:



The 0Z Euro also had it albeit also as a very weak low.

[Emmett_Brown]

Euro, Icon, Navgem, CMC all have a weak area of low pressure over the northern GOM by the end of the week. A few GFS ensemble members show a weak low as well. None of the models develops it much. Shear from an upper level trough should prevent anything big from developing, but the shear may actually help a weak storm to form, so I'm keeping an eye on it.

[LarryWx]

Larry GEFS control has a hurricane Just north of the NE Caribbean islands.

The 12Z EPS looks a bit menacing with this AEW position at 240, especially considering the high to the north moving west with this. The highest concentration of members with surface lows is right where the 12Z Euro op is at 240. Note that a number of members that earlier in the run were moving WNW curl back to a westerly heading. That is a recipe to bring AEWs into the western basin.

This run has ~40% of its members with surface lows from this AEW. The prior run had ~60%. So, a tick down fwiw.