2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/8PGwmSHX/gefs.gif

I have a dumb question: what do the numbers mean that are on the end of each ensemble run?

Last two digits of pressures in millibar. No question is a dumb question!

[jlauderdal]

Classic october setup, most active month in florida

[skyline385]

12Z EPS showing similar activity too




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[jlauderdal]

12Z EPS showing similar activity too




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That looks busy, my ian preps might be needed.

[Category5Kaiju]

12Z EPS showing similar activity too

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220930/c93e4e91b0ca613b9087ce1c01b37920.jpg


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That long track system (looks to be the AOI we have now) looks to be capable of really boosting our ACE. Thankfully it seems to be a fish storm

[Teban54]

12Z EPS showing similar activity too

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220930/c93e4e91b0ca613b9087ce1c01b37920.jpg


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That long track system (looks to be the AOI we have now) looks to be capable of really boosting our ACE. Thankfully it seems to be a fish storm

Interesting how EPS has many strong members but the operational Euro only has a TS.

[SFLcane]

Most confined to CA Only 1-2 come north.

[mantis83]

with trough after trough coming into the east, most anything will be swept out to sea.

[SFLcane]

Maybe Ian was it and everything else stays stuck down there in the Caribbean. Hopeful

[aspen]

No development in the Caribbean on the 18z GFS so far, whether it be from the wave (which is still trackable) or typical 10+ day convective feedback issues. I don’t think the former is at a too low latitude.

[Teban54]

No development in the Caribbean on the 18z GFS so far, whether it be from the wave (which is still trackable) or typical 10+ day convective feedback issues. I don’t think the former is at a too low latitude.

To me, it looks like 18z GFS has the wave interact with some random vorticity coming off South America, thus never got them going. This has been a theme for at least 4-5 runs now, only that earlier runs ended up developing one or both of them somehow.

I have a hard time believe that will happen, and it's more likely we see a single entity in the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Some GFS ensembles are forming something in the Caribbean in the 7-10 day timeframe:



The GFS has a strong wave in the Caribbean also:

[GeneratorPower]

These serious storms often seem to come in groups. Would not be surprised to see Florida get hit again.

[Category5Kaiju]

These serious storms often seem to come in groups. Would not be surprised to see Florida get hit again.

List 2 years have, interestingly, been quite mean for Florida. Notable examples include this year, as well as 2016 (Matthew), 2004 (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne), 1992 (Andrew), and years before that that would have been List 2 years (1926, 1944, and 1950).

We still have October to go through, and the consensus is that models seem to be interested that there *might* be something that is trying to form in the Caribbean by mid month. Best to keep an eye on it.

[weeniepatrol]

Definitely not a fan of the EPS trend. Yesterday's 0z vs today's 12z:

Someone correct me if wrong, but this appears to be in association with the tropical wave currently along 40W:

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 38W, from 04N to
19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 06N to 13N, between 35W and 43W. A recent scatterometer pass
found moderate to fresh winds shifting from E to NE across the
wave axis.

[weeniepatrol]

GEFS trend. This is becoming uncomfortable very quickly..

[jlauderdal]

Cycloneye and msbee on alert.

[jlauderdal]

Here comes the spread at 180H, escape route exists

[SFLcane]

[toad strangler]

6z GEFS ensembles are pretty dang provocative. Thankfully in 10 plus day la la land though….