2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

Agree with Webb.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1525895003255410694

[psyclone]

GFS is just performing its usual reminder that
A.) Hurricane season is approaching and,
B.) Model storm season is both longer and more intense than reality

[SconnieCane]

 https://twitter.com/plustssn/status/1525879408006938624

[AtlanticWind]

JMA has storm in the gulf at 192 hours

[Cat5James]

GEPS ensembles also have the signal.

[wxman57]

JMA has storm in the gulf at 192 hours

More like a weak 1006 mb low. I don't have much experience with the JMA model. I still think there will be no storm in the Gulf next weekend/early the following week. Euro and Canadian are indicating East Pac development. We go through this every May with the GFS...

[Siker]

Today’s 12z EPS. Tracks clustered close to Central America (and the algorithm may be getting tripped by a generic CAG signature rather than a TC for some of these tracks), but more support for a northern lift than the 00z. Nothing strong like the GFS.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1525940008917553154




 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1525928481166479360

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/hzHe69o.png

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1525940008917553154

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1525928481166479360

This is definitely a more plausible scenario than the GFS, if something absolutely has to form. A sloppy system that grapples with Central America for a while before the entire gyre potentially lifts north into the Gulf is something we've seen before in May/June, not so much a full-blown hurricane headed NE towards Florida lol.

[toad strangler]

Levi Cowan is the man. He doesn’t usually get into forecasting pre genesis. He has always said his strengths are with already formed TC’s. Interesting to see him go outside that box.

[AlphaToOmega]

The GEFS ensembles have always supported this system, but the GFS has a problem with phantom systems in the Western Caribbean. The GEPS ensembles somewhat support this system (about half-and-half with the GEPS). The ECENS ensembles still show East Pacific development. I am still thinking <10% chance of this system developing in the Atlantic.

[mixedDanilo.E]

With everything I’ve seen the past few days with models going back and forth this screams nothing but classic early season to me LMAO

[Nimbus]

The NOAA 14 day forecast calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation in the Southeast.
That means there is a better than even chance of drawing moisture up from the south to me.
But if we get an actual storm developing over on the Pacific side first that often delays the Atlantic season.

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF Genesis (Thick is operational) thin black is ens mean which goes into Nicaragua)..

[skyline385]

Looks like we might be getting a proper GFS solution after all with 18Z

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like we might be getting a proper GFS solution after all with 18Z

According to this run, the storm RIs and hits the Yucatan, goes over it, and does not recover in the Gulf and while it appears to landfall over the West Coast of FL

[skyline385]

Looks like we might be getting a proper GFS solution after all with 18Z

According to this run, the storm RIs and hits the Yucatan, goes over it, and does not recover in the Gulf and while it appears to landfall over the West Coast of FL

Which is pretty much what everyone has been saying it should be, I find it hilarious that it took happy hour GFS to get the correct solution

[InfernoFlameCat]

My strong suit is in developed tropical cyclones but this looks like a model storm with potential. Still more likely than not a phantom IMHO.

[AutoPenalti]

18z seems to be closer to reality than other runs.

But I did notice it’s closing in on time.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like the ECWMF and GFS are starting to get close to each other. These are 700mb at 06z for 23rd May