2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1181 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:10 am

SFLcane wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Guys wanna track hurricanes? Barrage potentially coming if the Gefs is to be believed.

https://i.postimg.cc/pT72VgNC/B69356-E5-2265-4910-8-C77-2-C2300-D65-AC2.gif


That is August 7th at 0z. About 5 runs back now.


Sure lol, just showing the flip Maybe coming.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

Flip is likely coming this week. What matters for this period is how long does it stay in 2 or 3? If it goes back into the circle or rotates counter-clockwise into 4/5/6/7 we'll probably have to wait for it to get back over to 8/1/2 for the next blast. I just wonder what if goes back into Phase 2 in early September and stays there for a month? It doesn't usually stay in one phase for a month, but sometimes it does. A couple winters ago we got a fairly consistent Phase 6 which is the warmest phase for the US in J/F'/M. So you never know. But I think we'll probably have at least 2 periods where we can expect bursts (don't think this move into Phase 2 is one of them).
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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1182 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:25 am

GFS up to it's usual antics. But, something to look at.

[url][/url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022080806&fh=6[url][/url]
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1183 Postby WiscoWx02 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:24 pm

18z happy hour GFS develops a MDR tropical cyclone at hr 348!! :eek: Didn’t think that was possible these days :lol:
Of course I know it will be gone next run btw
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1184 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:32 pm

There is the long range hurricane.

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1185 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:26 pm

Wow both the GFS and Euro are bringing the westerlies all the way down into Florida by the weekend with a deep trough developing ushering below normal temps for much of the eastern US, at least temporarily. The GFS has dewpoints into the 50s across the SE US and even northern Florida with dry, continental air moving down into the deep southeast. It has 40s and low 50s for lows in the northeast. That certainly is unusual for this time of year, very fall-like :eek:

Also note the shear zone 97l runs into as it passes northeast of the islands, not very La Niña-like at least at the moment.

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1186 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:50 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow both the GFS and Euro are bringing the westerlies all the way down into Florida by the weekend with a deep trough developing ushering below normal temps for much of the eastern US, at least temporarily. The GFS has dewpoints into the 50s across the SE US and even northern Florida with dry, continental air moving down into the deep southeast. It has 40s and low 50s for lows in the northeast. That certainly is unusual for this time of year, very fall-like :eek:

Also note the shear zone 97l runs into as it passes northeast of the islands, not very La Niña-like at least at the moment.

https://i.postimg.cc/mk1ZDdgx/gfs-shear-atl-fh72-168.gif


Sup Gator. The trough split (at the east coast) is definitely La Niña like though. Key factor is the amplification which coincides nicely with a move into Phase 2 of the MJO.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1187 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:53 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow both the GFS and Euro are bringing the westerlies all the way down into Florida by the weekend with a deep trough developing ushering below normal temps for much of the eastern US, at least temporarily. The GFS has dewpoints into the 50s across the SE US and even northern Florida with dry, continental air moving down into the deep southeast. It has 40s and low 50s for lows in the northeast. That certainly is unusual for this time of year, very fall-like :eek:

Also note the shear zone 97l runs into as it passes northeast of the islands, not very La Niña-like at least at the moment.

https://i.postimg.cc/mk1ZDdgx/gfs-shear-atl-fh72-168.gif

There’s a higher chance of 97L becoming a Cat 5 then the GFS’s solution of 40s lows in August. July ‘22 was an exceptionally warm month up here in the Northeast, and August sure has kept up the momentum so far. I just don’t see just a massive temperature drop verifying, and I vaguely recall the GFS overhyping other fronts and cold snaps at various points in past seasons. I even remember some “this isn’t very Nina-like” comments during last season…probably from myself as well.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1188 Postby Teban54 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow both the GFS and Euro are bringing the westerlies all the way down into Florida by the weekend with a deep trough developing ushering below normal temps for much of the eastern US, at least temporarily. The GFS has dewpoints into the 50s across the SE US and even northern Florida with dry, continental air moving down into the deep southeast. It has 40s and low 50s for lows in the northeast. That certainly is unusual for this time of year, very fall-like :eek:

Also note the shear zone 97l runs into as it passes northeast of the islands, not very La Niña-like at least at the moment.

https://i.postimg.cc/mk1ZDdgx/gfs-shear-atl-fh72-168.gif

Almost every year, GFS has a few runs showing crazy low temperatures for the eastern seaboard, and some people take them at face value. They almost never verify.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1189 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:04 pm

If it’s the GFS, it’s gotta hold some value. :cheesy:
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1190 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:36 pm

If we are going to see any activity or US threats next week or the week after, global models should start picking up on it in a few days. I’m not talking about 97L as that’s been sniffed out for a while. I’ll watch everything tonight and tomorrow but I’m more looking at how each model evolves surface and at 500mb over the next 3-4 days.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1191 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:55 pm

Historically, when the EPAC is active the Atlantic is slow. And vice versa. Probably won't see anything meaningful in the Atlantic until the EPAC slows down. Right now the GFS has hurricane after hurricane in the EPAC.

This could be the models bias towards the EPAC though.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1192 Postby Teban54 » Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:16 am

cycloneye wrote:There is the long range hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/o0FIlCp.gif

Still there on the 0z GFS, but further north and much weaker. There's also another system right behind it trying to form.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1193 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:17 am

I am expecting a marked uptick in model activity by the weekend.

It will be interesting to see how the models show steering currents going into
late August as that is always the big question in peak season.

We are getting closer to the active part of the season where changes happen relatively quickly.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1194 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:31 am

On a side note I miss the old CMC , I know it was inaccurate on TS genesis but it
gave us systems to hypothesize about and sometimes found a diamond in the rough.

Now it just the 3rd or 4th model you look at when you're bored :D
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1195 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:59 am

Steve wrote:If we are going to see any activity or US threats next week or the week after, global models should start picking up on it in a few days. I’m not talking about 97L as that’s been sniffed out for a while. I’ll watch everything tonight and tomorrow but I’m more looking at how each model evolves surface and at 500mb over the next 3-4 days.


I agree…if the models are not showing anything like they are now by this time next week and continue to show the wave breaking pattern and mid level dry air injection pattern in the MDR, but especially and most importantly the shear, I think the season bust potential needs to be taken seriously at that point.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1196 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:23 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:
Steve wrote:If we are going to see any activity or US threats next week or the week after, global models should start picking up on it in a few days. I’m not talking about 97L as that’s been sniffed out for a while. I’ll watch everything tonight and tomorrow but I’m more looking at how each model evolves surface and at 500mb over the next 3-4 days.


I agree…if the models are not showing anything like they are now by this time next week and continue to show the wave breaking pattern and mid level dry air injection pattern in the MDR, but especially and most importantly the shear, I think the season bust potential needs to be taken seriously at that point.


Yeah, that's all still got to resolve. The one caution is that it's still way early in the season. The reliable "campfire" chart of tropical activity reminds us that incidences of named tropical systems generally pick up after the 20th of August and peak in the 2nd week of September. We're still 11 days off from August 20th. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/2 ... mpfire.png

What I'm watching and wondering is if there will be a tropical response to the coming amplification. Australian and Japanese models are moving into Phase 1 or Phase 2 respectively by this weekend. It might still be too early in the season for a response. For instance if this was the end of the month or early September, ears would be up and eyes wide open. I don't specifically recall a deep dive into Phase 2 in early August in any recent years though I could be wrong on that.

Japanese - Phase 2 by end of the week
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

Australian (BOMM) More into Phase I, but that's favorable
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... bomm.shtml

ECMWF - Phase 2 by next week so slower than JMA or BOMM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ecmf.shtml
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1197 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:29 am

Steve wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
Steve wrote:If we are going to see any activity or US threats next week or the week after, global models should start picking up on it in a few days. I’m not talking about 97L as that’s been sniffed out for a while. I’ll watch everything tonight and tomorrow but I’m more looking at how each model evolves surface and at 500mb over the next 3-4 days.


I agree…if the models are not showing anything like they are now by this time next week and continue to show the wave breaking pattern and mid level dry air injection pattern in the MDR, but especially and most importantly the shear, I think the season bust potential needs to be taken seriously at that point.


Yeah, that's all still got to resolve. The one caution is that it's still way early in the season. The reliable "campfire" chart of tropical activity reminds us that incidences of named tropical systems generally pick up after the 20th of August and peak in the 2nd week of September. We're still 11 days off from August 20th. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/2 ... mpfire.png

What I'm watching and wondering is if there will be a tropical response to the coming amplification. Australian and Japanese models are moving into Phase 1 or Phase 2 respectively by this weekend. It might still be too early in the season for a response. For instance if this was the end of the month or early September, ears would be up and eyes wide open. I don't specifically recall a deep dive into Phase 2 in early August in any recent years though I could be wrong on that.

Japanese - Phase 2 by end of the week
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

Australian (BOMM) More into Phase I, but that's favorable
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... bomm.shtml

ECMWF - Phase 2 by next week so slower than JMA or BOMM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ecmf.shtml


I would expect at least some uptick in model support for tropical cyclone activity once the MJO gets into Phase 2 and 3, even if it is early August because we have seen the tropics wake up with a similar MJO passage in early July. If the models don’t start sniffing again by the middle of next week…yeah, I think my previous near average hurricane season is in jeopardy. Wish we had model data from 1999 to see if they started lighting up before August 20th (Bret and Cindy)…I would imagine they did if models even existed back then (bit before my time).
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1198 Postby CFLHurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:31 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:
Steve wrote:If we are going to see any activity or US threats next week or the week after, global models should start picking up on it in a few days. I’m not talking about 97L as that’s been sniffed out for a while. I’ll watch everything tonight and tomorrow but I’m more looking at how each model evolves surface and at 500mb over the next 3-4 days.


I agree…if the models are not showing anything like they are now by this time next week and continue to show the wave breaking pattern and mid level dry air injection pattern in the MDR, but especially and most importantly the shear, I think the season bust potential needs to be taken seriously at that point.


I wonder if the record ice melt in Greenland has anything to do with the quiet season, like 2013. Probably not- but I am enjoying the quiet August, regardless!
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1199 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:50 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:
Steve wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
I agree…if the models are not showing anything like they are now by this time next week and continue to show the wave breaking pattern and mid level dry air injection pattern in the MDR, but especially and most importantly the shear, I think the season bust potential needs to be taken seriously at that point.


Yeah, that's all still got to resolve. The one caution is that it's still way early in the season. The reliable "campfire" chart of tropical activity reminds us that incidences of named tropical systems generally pick up after the 20th of August and peak in the 2nd week of September. We're still 11 days off from August 20th. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/2 ... mpfire.png

What I'm watching and wondering is if there will be a tropical response to the coming amplification. Australian and Japanese models are moving into Phase 1 or Phase 2 respectively by this weekend. It might still be too early in the season for a response. For instance if this was the end of the month or early September, ears would be up and eyes wide open. I don't specifically recall a deep dive into Phase 2 in early August in any recent years though I could be wrong on that.

Japanese - Phase 2 by end of the week
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

Australian (BOMM) More into Phase I, but that's favorable
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... bomm.shtml

ECMWF - Phase 2 by next week so slower than JMA or BOMM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ecmf.shtml


I would expect at least some uptick in model support for tropical cyclone activity once the MJO gets into Phase 2 and 3, even if it is early August because we have seen the tropics wake up with a similar MJO passage in early July. If the models don’t start sniffing again by the middle of next week…yeah, I think my previous near average hurricane season is in jeopardy. Wish we had model data from 1999 to see if they started lighting up before August 20th (Bret and Cindy)…I would imagine they did if models even existed back then (bit before my time).


There were models, but they were way more primitive. MRF was the medium range US model at the time. They used to swing pretty wildly. There was even internet in 1999, and funny enough, CFHC (poster after you) had the best storm "fan"-site at the turn of the century. I still get over there and read sometimes. We used to look at other stuff for clues back then since links with the MJO weren't that well understood. The key was to use the indices to figure out what the pattern would be if a storm was moving toward the US. So things like the Southern Oscillation Index and North Atlantic Oscillation were taken into account. You'd be able to guess whether or not something was on the way out to sea or if there was the possibility of a block. Was the Gulf or East Coast more at risk from a given system. All that. I'd say internet weather boards go back to about 1995 or 1996 but it could be +/- a couple years. As for models, even *rappy models in this era are better than the good ones from 20-25 years ago.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1200 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:01 am

Steve wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
Steve wrote:
Yeah, that's all still got to resolve. The one caution is that it's still way early in the season. The reliable "campfire" chart of tropical activity reminds us that incidences of named tropical systems generally pick up after the 20th of August and peak in the 2nd week of September. We're still 11 days off from August 20th. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/2 ... mpfire.png

What I'm watching and wondering is if there will be a tropical response to the coming amplification. Australian and Japanese models are moving into Phase 1 or Phase 2 respectively by this weekend. It might still be too early in the season for a response. For instance if this was the end of the month or early September, ears would be up and eyes wide open. I don't specifically recall a deep dive into Phase 2 in early August in any recent years though I could be wrong on that.

Japanese - Phase 2 by end of the week
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

Australian (BOMM) More into Phase I, but that's favorable
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... bomm.shtml

ECMWF - Phase 2 by next week so slower than JMA or BOMM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ecmf.shtml


I would expect at least some uptick in model support for tropical cyclone activity once the MJO gets into Phase 2 and 3, even if it is early August because we have seen the tropics wake up with a similar MJO passage in early July. If the models don’t start sniffing again by the middle of next week…yeah, I think my previous near average hurricane season is in jeopardy. Wish we had model data from 1999 to see if they started lighting up before August 20th (Bret and Cindy)…I would imagine they did if models even existed back then (bit before my time).


There were models, but they were way more primitive. MRF was the medium range US model at the time. They used to swing pretty wildly. There was even internet in 1999, and funny enough, CFHC (poster after you) had the best storm "fan"-site at the turn of the century. I still get over there and read sometimes. We used to look at other stuff for clues back then since links with the MJO weren't that well understood. The key was to use the indices to figure out what the pattern would be if a storm was moving toward the US. So things like the Southern Oscillation Index and North Atlantic Oscillation were taken into account. You'd be able to guess whether or not something was on the way out to sea or if there was the possibility of a block. Was the Gulf or East Coast more at risk from a given system. All that. I'd say internet weather boards go back to about 1995 or 1996 but it could be +/- a couple years. As for models, even *rappy models in this era are better than the good ones from 20-25 years ago.


This is why I wish I was around 10 years earlier or 15 years earlier, then I could see how far models have come and get a first hand look at all of this cause I know as a 21st century kid I’m spoiled as can be. I’m definitely going to do some digging back to 99 then and don’t worry, I know internet has been publicly accessible since the early 90s :lol:

I also gotta check that site out you mentioned too…always happy to read those!
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