2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 687
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#361 Postby Spacecoast » Tue May 17, 2022 11:19 am

FSU drops NAV Genesis possibility.
Yesterday's NAV showed 23% probability of genesis just south of Yucatan.
Image

0z ECMF only has a few members escaping into GOM. Median ensemble drops development after 96 hrs.
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#362 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:29 am

12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol
1 likes   

Fancy1001
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#363 Postby Fancy1001 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:38 am

skyline385 wrote:12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol

That’s 997, But it does look like this one might not get slammed into the Yucatán
0 likes   

Fancy1001
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#364 Postby Fancy1001 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:42 am

Is it just me, or is the 12z gfs run stuck at 156
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#365 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:43 am

Fancy1001 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol

That’s 997, But it does look like this one might not get slammed into the Yucatán

It's stuck on TT, it's currently 971mb in the Gulf on weathermodels
0 likes   

Fancy1001
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#366 Postby Fancy1001 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:45 am

skyline385 wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol

That’s 997, But it does look like this one might not get slammed into the Yucatán

It's stuck on TT, it's currently 971mb in the Gulf on weathermodels

Oh ok, thanks.
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1665
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#367 Postby BobHarlem » Tue May 17, 2022 11:47 am

Fancy1001 wrote:Is it just me, or is the 12z gfs run stuck at 156


Just on Tropical Tidbits, it's showing a cat 2/968mb landfall near Destin @ 12Z on 5/28.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue May 17, 2022 11:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#368 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:48 am

Fancy1001 wrote:Is it just me, or is the 12z gfs run stuck at 156


Levi's page is stuck at 156hrs. Pivotal Weather site has the big GFS modelcane hitting the FL Panhandle with a 968mb pressure on Saturday, May 28th. Not believable.
3 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#369 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 11:50 am

Michael vibes on the 12Z run
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#370 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 17, 2022 12:04 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1766
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#371 Postby kevin » Tue May 17, 2022 12:15 pm

12z GFS just before landfall:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#372 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 17, 2022 12:39 pm

Note that the GFS blasts the hurricane through a wall of strong wind shear. Completely unrealistic. Rain for Central America. The end.
9 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#373 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 12:50 pm

Most of the ensemble members are still heading towards peninsular Florida, the operational model is on its own here
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8071
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#374 Postby jasons2k » Tue May 17, 2022 12:59 pm

Here is what local met Jeff Lindner had to say this morning:

Tropics:
There has been a bunch of social media posts recently showing a tropical system on the GFS model in the western Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico for next week. The GFS is notorious for showing development this time of year in this region as tropical waves/moisture interact with a developing central American gyre. Most models do show a large area of unsettled weather extending from the western Caribbean Sea into the Bay of Campeche from this weekend into next week. If and when any sort of defined surface circulation may develop and where remains highly uncertain due to land interaction with central America and the large sprawling nature of the central American gyre. If anything were to actually develop it would be slow.
3 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#375 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 17, 2022 1:24 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#376 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue May 17, 2022 1:31 pm

The Gfs really wants this to happen. I could see this scenario in October, but not May. This looks like Zeta in some aspects. Like actually a lot of aspects. Except the one big killer is the climatology. It’s May. I would like to see a hurricane come through my area. I can get behind the powerful storm with shear enhancing the outflow of the storm instead of hurting it. But I don’t see how the gfs forms it. It just spins it up off Honduras and kills the epac vorticity. The reason why this reminds me of zeta is because of the strengthening in spite of shear, as well as the front picking the system up and racing it through the southeast like a slingshot.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 686
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#377 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 17, 2022 1:39 pm

After forming a TS in the Bay of Campeche yesterday, today's 12z Euro run appears to have dropped that idea. GFS continues to stand on its own unless the EPS suite shows something more significant.
Image
2 likes   
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#378 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 17, 2022 1:51 pm

EC's weak low in the Gulf of Tehuantepec looks much more likely.
6 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#379 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 17, 2022 3:07 pm

Comparison of GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, & ICON. Which one is not like the others? GFS blasts the hurricane north into a wall of shear and strengthens it.

Image
0 likes   

hurricane2025
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 162
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:36 am

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#380 Postby hurricane2025 » Tue May 17, 2022 5:27 pm

Gfs has caved
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hurricaneman and 62 guests