2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ElectricStorm]

Well now look what we have here

[Hammy]

This GFS run is going to cheer up the people here

Also, the Caribbean is looking very moist, the wave just needs to get there

https://i.imgur.com/yUI6nyG.png

Seems to be the same wave the Euro is developing, though the GFS has a habit of moving the pattern forward a bit too quickly. Pretty consistent with what the earlier Euro was showing in finally moving the monsoon trough southward.

[weeniepatrol]

5 days until the bell rings.

It NEVER fails.

[skyline385]

Wondering if the GFS maybe overdoing the convection a bit there, it continues to RI with a compact core while being surrounded by tons of dry air.

[AtlanticWind]

A strong hurricane entering the carribean , another T.S. behind.

Models starting to pick up on peak season as expected

[ElectricStorm]

Down to 973mb approaching the Caribbean at hour 306, way out there so I'm not really buying that at the moment but at the very least it seems like the models are starting to pick up on an increase in activity, right as we approach 8/20

[skyline385]

Looks like both are going to swing OTS, which would be in line with a majority of the EPS members

[weeniepatrol]

Here we go.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like both are going to swing OTS, which would be in line with a majority of the EPS members

https://i.imgur.com/iWfdb0q.png

Wouldnt put a lot of stock on where a system is going in modeling 2 weeks out

[skyline385]

Looks like both are going to swing OTS, which would be in line with a majority of the EPS members

https://i.imgur.com/iWfdb0q.png

Wouldnt put a lot of stock on where a system is going in modeling 2 weeks out

I wouldn't even put stock into this system forming yet lol, was just talking about how they will behave in this run

[Hammy]

5 days until the bell rings.

It NEVER fails.

2018 would like a word

[IcyTundra]

Looks like both are going to swing OTS, which would be in line with a majority of the EPS members

https://i.imgur.com/iWfdb0q.png

Idk on this run I think the model hurricane barely missed the weakness and is caught underneath the ridge at the end of the run.

[skyline385]

Looks like both are going to swing OTS, which would be in line with a majority of the EPS members

https://i.imgur.com/iWfdb0q.png

Idk on this run I think the model hurricane barely missed the weakness and is caught underneath the ridge at the end of the run.

Was thinking the same too, I thought the ridge over Florida was weakening but then it builds up again. Could be bad news for SFL and/or Gulf if it behaves like that as we enter peak season.

[ElectricStorm]

Obviously we can't take much stock in long range GFS runs but just for fun if this were to somehow verify I see potential for 5 named storms before the end of the month from this run:

1) Western Gulf/BOC system around 8/20, doesn't explicitly show it form on this run, but it's been pretty consistent on showing a disturbance around that time
2) First MDR cane
3) Second MDR cane
4) Another potential short lived BOC/western gulf storm
5) Third MDR wave at the very end of the run

Of course this won't happen but imagine if somehow the Atlantic produces 5 storms in August after all this talk of a slower season

[LarryWx]

This GFS run is going to cheer up the people here

Also, the Caribbean is looking very moist, the wave just needs to get there

https://i.imgur.com/yUI6nyG.png

Seems to be the same wave the Euro is developing, though the GFS has a habit of moving the pattern forward a bit too quickly. Pretty consistent with what the earlier Euro was showing in finally moving the monsoon trough southward.

Are you sure about that? The developed Euro AEW didn't move offshore til 8/22. The 0Z GFS looks like it is at least incorporating energy moving off on 8/19 (similar to 18Z GFS) and already has a weak surface low SW of the CV Islands on 8/20. Then it looks like it gets new energy coming off Africa on 8/21 that somehow combines with it on 8/22. It then gets to 40W on 8/24, the day that the Euro low is much further east near 27W. The GFS looks weird with this evolution, but if there really is going to be a low near 40W by 8/24, this looks like it could be a real threat as it does do so at the end of the run.
I'm sticking with 3 NS this month.

Edit: the 0Z GEFS concurs with the idea that energy coming off Africa sooner than the Euro's developed AEW is leading to generous levels of activity. At least that's how it looks to me. If so, the relevant energy starts coming off Africa by Friday, August 19th in time for the bell.

The 0Z UKMET has no TC through 144 just like the prior run.

[NotSparta]

Wondering if the GFS maybe overdoing the convection a bit there, it continues to RI with a compact core while being surrounded by tons of dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/qMgywNW.png

It's a well-developed TC, if there's minimal shear it wouldn't be nearly as affected by dry air as a wave

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro is consistent with recent Euro runs in having a CV sfc low on 8/24 (day 9) although the low is weaker and the high to the north isn't as strong. At hour 240 (8/25 0Z), it barely moves and is still near the CVs on the Euro although there's a small piece well in front. The 0Z GFS at 240 is way west of the Euro's main low (past 40W) with its lead low:

  0Z Euro 240: low still only near CVs


0Z GFS 240: low already past 40W and in a more threatening position

[SFLcane]

I can here the bell ringing into distance!

[N2FSU]

and of course the 6z GFS dropped everything



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[skyline385]

Wondering if the GFS maybe overdoing the convection a bit there, it continues to RI with a compact core while being surrounded by tons of dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/qMgywNW.png

Called it, 06Z goes back to nothing as the waves get destroyed by dry air

I think something will form end of August but it probably wont be a Cat 2/3 in the middle of the MDR.