2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
weeniepatrol wrote:00z GEFS..
https://i.imgur.com/V85d24R.png
00z EPS..
https://i.imgur.com/MREhKAK.png
Euro operationl has a very stout ridge in place which in most years I would say this late int he season is probably wrong. However, this is 2022 and we had a late start so lets see.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Not that the GFS is to be trusted at 300 hours plus but the 06z run spins up a sub 930mb hurricane in the Western Caribbean. Of course, it very well could be a phantom. Let’s hope that’s the case. After Ian I think it’s fair to say that most would be happy to see the season be over.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SouthFLTropics wrote:Not that the GFS is to be trusted at 300 hours plus but the 06z run spins up a sub 930mb hurricane in the Western Caribbean. Of course, it very well could be a phantom. Let’s hope that’s the case. After Ian I think it’s fair to say that most would be happy to see the season be over.
Unfortunately I can honestly say we are just getting started being specific with the Caribbean. We got lots more coming potentially.
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- weeniepatrol
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- crownweather
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SouthFLTropics wrote:Not that the GFS is to be trusted at 300 hours plus but the 06z run spins up a sub 930mb hurricane in the Western Caribbean. Of course, it very well could be a phantom. Let’s hope that’s the case. After Ian I think it’s fair to say that most would be happy to see the season be over.
I actually said that exact thing late last night. I'd be more than happy if Ian is it for the season. I'm just drained and feel like I've had the crap beat out of me.
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Rob Lightbown
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Models are showing a MDR cruiser in October
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- Iceresistance
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
crownweather wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:Not that the GFS is to be trusted at 300 hours plus but the 06z run spins up a sub 930mb hurricane in the Western Caribbean. Of course, it very well could be a phantom. Let’s hope that’s the case. After Ian I think it’s fair to say that most would be happy to see the season be over.
I actually said that exact thing late last night. I'd be more than happy if Ian is it for the season. I'm just drained and feel like I've had the crap beat out of me.
Basically the same here, my gut has sunk really hard like what it did when Ida made landfall in 2021.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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- Iceresistance
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
zzzh wrote:Models are showing a MDR cruiser in October
If this verifies, I would say "Oh no, here we go again . . . "
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- weeniepatrol
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
We also anticipate well above-median October-November Caribbean
Accumulated Cyclone Energy.
Accumulated Cyclone Energy.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Sigh
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:Sigh
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/8280df14281262dea8bc114514e8b3a7.jpg
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CA food there.. Lets hope. That track by the way is ridiculous.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SFLcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Sigh
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/8280df14281262dea8bc114514e8b3a7.jpg
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CA food there.. Lets hope. That track by the way is ridiculous.
Having a hard time believing in this ridging setup for October
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SFLcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Sigh
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/8280df14281262dea8bc114514e8b3a7.jpg
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CA food there.. Lets hope. That track by the way is ridiculous.
Seriously doubt that track. Would think it would head north instead. A bit concerning we are seeing a signal for another hurricane in the Western Caribbean.
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:SFLcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Sigh
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/8280df14281262dea8bc114514e8b3a7.jpg
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CA food there.. Lets hope. That track by the way is ridiculous.
Having a hard time believing in this ridging setup for October
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/7f88fd30048ad401e275e21c472fdb00.jpg
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Ya, I don’t look at any 500mb past 5 days and that’s pushing it. Should be a deep trough in There somewhere.
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:Sigh
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220929/8280df14281262dea8bc114514e8b3a7.jpg
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There's already chatter about development being a sincere possibility, but for now this kind of timeframe is just too far out. We will keep a weary eye out on the Caribbean though
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